Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls today

Porto Alegre
Manuela D'Ávila (PCdoB): 27%
Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB): 14%
Sebastião Melo (MDB): 14%
José Fortunati (PTB): 13%
Juliana Brizola (PDT): 4%
João Derly (Republicanos): 3%
Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL): 3%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 63%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 8%
Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 31%
Marília Arraes (PT): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 16%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 13%

Porto Alegre and Recife are in the group of the few state capitals in which the left has great probability to win

[buritobr]

Ibope polls today

São Paulo

First round
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 26%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 20%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 13%
Márcio França (PSB): 11%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 3%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff simulations
•Bruno Covas 47% X 31% Celso Russomanno
•Bruno Covas 51% X 26% Guilherme Boulos
•Bruno Covas 45% X 34% Márcio França
•Celso Russomanno 43% X 31% Guilherme Boulos
•Márcio França 43% X 34% Celso Russomanno
•Márcio França 48% X 26% Guilherme Boulos

[buritobr]

Rio de Janeiro

First round
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 32%
Crivella (Republicanos): 14%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 14%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 9%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%

Runoff simulations
Eduardo Paes 41% x 34% Delegada Martha Rocha
Eduardo Paes 51% x 19% Crivella
Benedita da Silva 23% x 46% Eduardo Paes
Delegada Martha Rocha 50% x 21% Crivella
Benedita da Silva 27% x 41% Delegada Martha Rocha
Benedita da Silva 37% x 26% Crivella

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls yesterday

São Paulo

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 28%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 16%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 3%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 57% x 27% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 54% x 32% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 48% x 39% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Guilherme Boulos 41% x 39% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 1%)


Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 31%
Crivella (Republicanos): 15%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 8%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 5%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%

Runoff
Eduardo Paes 53% x 25% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 44% x 38% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 16%; não sabe: 2%)
Eduardo Paes 48% x 27% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 1%)


I really think weird this poll in Rio de Janeiro. All the candidates of the right (Paes, Crivella, Lima) increased, candidates of the left decreased (Benedita, Renata). This movement was stronger in the group of people whose household income is higher than 5 minimum wages (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/06/datafolha-de-5-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) There were no facts in the last 2 weeks which explained this trend. Maybe, there was a bias in collecting the sample. Maybe, in the previous poll, most people whose income >5MW were interviewed in Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras, Catete, Glória, Santa Teresa (more left-wing middle/upper class neighborhoods) and in this recent poll, most people whose income >5MW were interviewed in Ipanema, Leblon, Barra (more right-wing middle/upper class neighborhoods). Datafolha doesn't interview people by phone, don't visit people in their homes. Datafolha interviews people on the streets (they used phones only during the worst stage of the pandemic).

[Red Velvet]

I think it’s simple:

- Divided left voters that attack each other more than they do the right.

- Bolsonaro announcing his public support for Crivella driving a bit more of his voters towards him

- Massive campaign from all sides (Paes, Lima, Crivella and online PT supporters) against Martha Rocha, who stopped growing and stabilized.

- Martha and Benedita TV campaigns are bland. Martha giving unnecessary attention to silly attacks and lacking energy.

- Benedita having some of an evangelical base that is going to Crivella as “voto útil”.

- Some Renata and Benedita voters anticipating the “voto útil” and going to Eduardo Paes for safety or Martha Rocha for viability.

- Limited campaign on the streets benefit candidates that are most known: Paes and Crivella. Also the lack of debates helps to do this.

- Luiz Lima disgusts me, but his team knows to make TV ads. Also, he was always expected to make gains as time passed since he is candidate with low ID recognition.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

https://twitter.com/telesurenglish/status/1325286927411634176
Hahahahaha. Please let it happen.

[Mike88]

This may be one of the worst excuses ever...

[buritobr]

2020 was a bad year, but there were some good news.

Jacinda Ardern, one of the best leaders in recent times, was reelected. The leaders of the 2019 coup in Bolivia were defeated and MAS won a landslide. Chile will have a new constitution. Trump was defeated. Bolsonaro's candidates are leading the polls in only 3 of the 26 state capitals. There is the possibility of no Bolsonaro candidates in the runoff in the 2 major Brazilian cities. The bad news is that the center-right is doing well, not the left.

[CumbrianLefty]

This may be one of the worst excuses ever...

A bit lame given all his macho alpha male posturing too.

[Red Velvet]

This may be one of the worst excuses ever...

A bit lame given all his macho alpha male posturing too.

It was always just talk, this guy is a coward and acted like this his entire life. If it becomes evident he will lose (like, if his approval rating drops too much or Americas left keep in upward swing), he might not even run in order to not lose and protect himself from the humiliation Trump was subjected to.

He will then claim his administration was a success and then win a legislative seat with whatever support he still has because that will still keep his special status from justice.

His approval ratings in the capitals have become more negative too (he was elected with big support from cities).

This is the state capitals poll released today, with blue bar indicating % who have positive opinion (great/good) of his government and red bar indicating % with negative perception (bad/awful):



Boa Vista is the capital of Roraima, the Brazilian state that borders Venezuela and that had a migration crisis with the entrance of Venezuelans. It’s the capital most strongly pro-Bolsonaro.

Salvador is the capital of Bahia, in the Northeast region (which became a left stronghold during Lula’s years) and it’s the blackest capital, with strong African culture influence. It’s the capital most strongly anti-Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

[Red Velvet]

For Brazilian members, G1 has a quiz that ranks for multiple cities the candidate that has proposals more aligned with you.

https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2020/jogo-eleitoral/1-turno/

I did it for Rio de Janeiro and my results were:

1. Bandeira de Melo (REDE)
2. Cyro Garcia (PSTU)
3. Martha Rocha (PDT) - my vote
4. Paulo Messina (MDB)
5. Benedita da Silva (PT)
6. Renata Souza (PSOL)
7. Glória Heloíza (PSC)
8. Eduardo Paes (DEM)
9. Suêd (PMB)
10. Luiz Lima (PSL)
11. Fred Luz (NOVO)
12. Clarissa Garotinho (PROS)
13. Crivella (Republicanos)

Which is pretty accurate! The four candidates I dislike the most ended up in the bottom 4 and the top 6 is fairly accurate.

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Besides the evangelicals, Bolsonaro is a politician from Rio and you tend to get more goodwill from your home state. But I agree that it’s mostly how the evangelical religion became stronger in Rio suburbs. Also, maybe “tough on crime” speeches could tend to have more appeal in Rio than in any other place.

I would add to what you said that Rio is strongly anti-PSDB but not necessarily anti-right. Once PSDB finally lost the status of being the representative of the “right” post-2014 to Bolsonaro, it became easier to move right. São Paulo on the other hand always was a very PSDB-friendly state and the city too.

Rio is kinda losing its status (if not already) of being the home city of the “intelectual left”. It’s unforgivable to move to the right of a city like São Paulo. But understandable considering the scenarios of the two cities in the current context.

Porto Alegre in the south also has an old historical relationship with the left, since Brizola and the resistance against the military dictatorship. It kinda got overshadowed with the South and white-majority areas as a whole shifting way to the right in recent years, but Porto Alegre is kinda making a comeback with Manuela D’Ávila, from the Communist Party, being currently #1 in polls.

Florianópolis numbers are very good and may look surprising on surface, but the city itself is considerably way more progressive than the state of Santa Catarina, especially the interior areas. It’s very sad and unfair whenever people associate the state as a whole with Nazis because of very specific localized news, they don’t deserve this reputation.

Finishing all the 3 capitals from the south region, Curitiba being by far the most conservative of them isn’t surprising at all. In the past, Paraná used to be seen as being to the right of both Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

[CumbrianLefty]

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Evangelical "Christians" really love these godless right wingers don't they?

[xelas81]

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Evangelical "Christians" really love these godless right wingers don't they?

Bolsonaro is religious.
And surely you don't believe that only left wingers vote for what they view as "lesser evil"
This isn't a defense of Bolsonaro or the Brazilian right.

[Mike88]

I did mine for Rio and São Paulo:

Rio de Janeiro:

1. PROS
2. REDE
3. DEM
4. PT
5. PSL
6. PSC
7. Republicanos
8. NOVO
9. MDB

São Paulo:

1. PSB
2. REDE
3. PSOL
4. PT
5. PCB
6. PSD
7. PSTU
8. PSDB
9. PSL

[Red Velvet]

From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

Evangelical "Christians" really love these godless right wingers don't they?

Bolsonaro is religious.
And surely you don't believe that only left wingers vote for what they view as "lesser evil"
This isn't a defense of Bolsonaro or the Brazilian right.

Questionable. He only mentions God all the time nowadays and got baptized in Israel in 2016, just two years before his election, when he already had intentions and clear plans of running. I could be wrong but to me he just tries to pander to evangelicals a lot in order to secure their votes.

It’s not out of his reach because that’s what he did in economics. He adopted a neoliberal stance that is friendly to Chicago-boys and market elites once his campaign started but that was very contrasting to his history. To give an idea, he was continuously elected to congress since 1990 because he stood up for the right low-tier military workers, defending better conditions, more benefits, etc. Which made him somewhat unlivable to higher-level sectors of military.

A lot of his strategy in 2018 was to appeal to different right wing groups that never were connected: Economic pro-business elites, evangelical religious people, the military, anti-corruption “Car-Wash” movement that was anti-politics in their core... But he himself only cared about them to get to power.

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 13%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 12%
Márcio França (PSB): 10%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 5%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
None: 11%
Don't know: 5%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 52% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 16%; não sabe: 8%)
Bruno Covas 54% X 22% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 18%; não sabe: 7%)
Bruno Covas 47% X 30% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 8%)
Celso Russomanno 36% X 32% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 8%)
Márcio França 45% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 9%)
Márcio França 45% X 27% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 9%)

[buritobr]

Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 33%
Crivella (Republicanos): 15%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 14%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 9%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
None: 12%
Don't know: 4%

Runoff
Eduardo Paes 53% x 21% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 4%)
Eduardo Paes 45% x 32% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 18%; não sabe: 5%)
Eduardo Paes 49% x 23% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 23%; não sabe: 5%)
Martha Rocha 52% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 6%)
Martha Rocha 45% x 25% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 22%; não sabe: 8%)
Benedita da Silva 40% x 26% Crivella (branco/nulo: 27%; não sabe: 7%)

[buritobr]

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 62%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 7%
Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 2%
Cabo Xavier (PMB): 1%
Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 33%
Marília Arraes (PT): 21%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 17%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 12%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 1%
Carlos (PSL): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%

[Red Velvet]

São Paulo will have Boulos in the runoff, Porto Alegre will have Manuela D’Ávila, Recife will have two left parties in the runoff...

Meanwhile Rio will have battle of ex-mayor vs current mayor. Two options with scandals. Rio deserves its suffering. The city only gets more decadent with time and slowly keeps losing its old charm. It’s a privilege to live in the most beautiful city in the world but I keep dreaming about moving to São Paulo or one of the capitals in the South or in the Northeast. Brasília is too boring and monotonous of a city but I would move there too at this point.

Militias on the rise, the most corrupt politicians from the country and increasing influence of evangelical Christians are destroying the city and you see the effects of the bad adminstration with the increase of poverty and the fact the city is by far the slowest to recover from economic crisis. I would easily get out.

[buritobr]

Other data from the Ibope polls: approval rates

São Paulo
mayor Bruno Covas: good/very good 33%, regular 42%, bad/very bad 22%
governor João Dória: good/very good 15%, regular 34%, bad/very bad 49%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 23%, regular 22%, bad/very bad 54%

Rio de Janeiro
mayor Marcelo Crivella: good/very good 13%, regular 24%, bad/very bad 62%
governor Claudio Castro: good/very good 6%, regular 37%, bad/very bad 33%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 32%, regular 24%, bad/very bad 42%

Belo Horizonte
mayor Kalil: good/very good 65%, regular 23%, bad/very bad 12%
governor Zema: good/very good 33%, regular 33%, bad/very bad 30%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 32%, regular 22%, bad/very bad 44%

Recife
mayor Geraldo Julio: good/very good 23%, regular 38%, bad/very bad 37%
governor Paulo Camara: good/very good 18%, regular 37%, bad/very bad 44%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 28%, regular 21%, bad/very bad 50%

[buritobr]

The campaigns from Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva and Renata Souza considered too early that Crivella was dead. He is not the main focus of negative campaign. There are no scandals related to Crivella in the media anymore. But Crivella is not dead. He has 3 more points than one month ago. If you look at the last Ibope polls by demographics (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/10/ibope-de-9-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) the group in which Crivella increased more was the group of the evangelic voters. He had 24% in October 15th, and now he has 31%. In the group of all voters, the mayor had 12% and now he has 15%. The evangelic voters are going back home.
I have a hope that he is already close to his ceiling, since we can perceive he is already overperforming if we look at the approval rate poll.

[Mike88]

The campaigns from Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva and Renata Souza considered too early that Crivella was dead. He is not the main focus of negative campaign. There are no scandals related to Crivella in the media anymore. But Crivella is not dead. He has 3 more points than one month ago. If you look at the last Ibope polls by demographics (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/10/ibope-de-9-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) the group in which Crivella increased more was the group of the evangelic voters. He had 24% in October 15th, and now he has 31%. In the group of all voters, the mayor had 12% and now he has 15%. The evangelic voters are going back home.
I have a hope that he is already close to his ceiling, since we can perceive he is already overperforming if we look at the approval rate poll.

But in the 2nd round, there will probably be a coalesce of minor parties around Paes to defeat Crivella, right?

[buritobr]

Yes. According to the polls, Eduardo Paes would have a huge margin against Crivella in the runoff. But since Crivella is a horrible mayor endorsed by a horrible president, it would be disgusting see him in the runoff.

[Red Velvet]

Yes. According to the polls, Eduardo Paes would have a huge margin against Crivella in the runoff. But since Crivella is a horrible mayor endorsed by a horrible president, it would be disgusting see him in the runoff.

Doesn’t matter who wins anyway, Bolsonaro just hinted possibility of entering war against US (“Diplomacy is not always enough, we need powder”) because of Biden’s claims about the Amazon. Crivella or Paes elected mayor we’ll be dead in the next year on the same way lmao