Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:14:20 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11
Author Topic: Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)  (Read 16903 times)
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: November 29, 2020, 03:53:34 PM »

Vitória city is projected for the REPUBLICANOS.
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: November 29, 2020, 03:54:06 PM »

In the precint I worked, Eduardo Paes had 150 votes, Marcelo Crivella had 31
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: November 29, 2020, 03:54:38 PM »

Edmílson's (PSOL) victory in Belém is confirmed
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: November 29, 2020, 04:03:18 PM »

São Paulo seems to be safe for the PSDB.

35.46% in:

60.2% PSDB
39.8% PSOL
Logged
Red Velvet
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,013
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: November 29, 2020, 04:39:01 PM »

If anything, these results evidence that either the left, center-left and center unite in 2022 or we’re doomed. Some people in PT still are in complete denial and think we’re in the 00s. There are bright spots like Edmilson (PSOL) in Belém and Sarto (PDT) in Fortaleza defeating the candidates that were openly Bolsonaristas. That said, it was much closer than expected and it took an united broad front against them.

That said, in places where the opposite candidate wasn’t a Bolsonaro candidate, the left lost (Manuela in Porto Alegre, Boulos in SP). Also, the worst elected candidate is in Vitória where he ran against PT and still won despite who he was. A similar thing can very well happen in 2022 if more strategy and pragmatism isn’t adopted, PT alone with PCdoB will easily get destroyed.

Also confirmed at this point:

PSB wins Maceió and Recife this runoff, 2 northeast capitals

PDT wins Fortaleza and Aracajú, 2 northeast capitals
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: November 29, 2020, 05:14:06 PM »

Another big loser were the polling companies. Polls predicted close races in many cities that at the end weren't the case.
Logged
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,271


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: November 29, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »

Novo ended up winning in Joinville after all.

Otherwise, it looks like polls consistently overestimated leftist candidates against centrists again by around 5% and against the far right more than that (eg. in Fortaleza and Belem the pro-Bolsonaro candidates made predicated blowout races extremely close). No idea what the cause of that is.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: November 29, 2020, 06:13:49 PM »

According to my count, this is the number of cities won by each party in this 2nd round: (total 57)

10 MDB
  8 PSDB
  6 PODE
  5 DEM
  5 PSD
  4 PT
  3 REPUBLICANOS
  3 PDT
  3 PSB
  3 PP
  2 AVANTE
  1 PSOL
  1 NOVO
  1 PATRIOTA
  1 SD
  1 PROS
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: November 29, 2020, 06:33:41 PM »

Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020. We don't know the real motives, but there are some hyphothesis:
1) Evangelic churches and Whatsapp messages influencing the voters in the last hour
2) Wrong methodologies of the poll
3) Silent conservative voters
4) All of them
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: November 29, 2020, 06:43:34 PM »

Now, 100% of the precints were proceeded. We can analyse the maps.

In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes had 64% and won all the zones. He had >80% in the middle/upper income neighborhoods in the south of the city. On the other side, some zones in the low income neighborhoods in the west were very close. His margin in the whole city was not even bigger because of the low turnout in the south.
The highest performance of Eduardo Paes took place at Z17, in which there are the richest neighborhoods of the city: Ipanema and Leblon. He had 84.91% there. In the most left-wing zone of the city, Z16, Paes had 82.46%. This zone includes the neighborhoods of Laranjeiras, Catete and Glória. These are wealthy neighborhoods, but not as rich as Ipanema and Leblon. According to these results, it is possible to estimate that not 100% of the left voted for Paes. A small share of the left abstained.
https://especiaisg1.globo/rj/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/2-turno/
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: November 29, 2020, 07:09:02 PM »

In São Paulo, Bruno Covas had 59.4% in the whole city. He performed better in the middle/upper income neighborhoods in the Mesopotamia (the wealthy part of the city, located between the rivers Tietê and Pinheiros). Boulos won some zones in the low income neighborhoods in the extreme south and extreme east. In the 1st round, Boulos performed better in the middle/upper income neighborhoods too, but in the 2nd round he performed better in the low income neighborhoods because he received Tatto's votes.
Although this rich-poor gap exists, it was bigger in the past. Boulos had the 3rd best result of a leftist candidate in the Mesopotamia. Only Marta 2000 (when she ran for mayor) and Lula 2002 (when he ran for president) did better there. When Fernando Haddad (PT) was elected mayor in 2012, he did worse in the Mesopotamia than Boulos did in 2020. The difference is that Haddad had >70% in the poor neighborhoods in the extreme south and east, where Boulos had narrow wins or even narrow losses.
https://especiaisg1.globo/sp/sao-paulo/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/sao-paulo/2-turno/
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,962
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: November 29, 2020, 08:58:18 PM »

Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Didn't Bolsonaro underperform his polls in the runoff?
Logged
seb_pard
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 656
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: November 29, 2020, 10:51:17 PM »




Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: November 30, 2020, 06:50:00 AM »

Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Didn't Bolsonaro underperform his polls in the runoff?
The last polls before the runoff were quite spot on, but Haddad was able to close the gap, just by a bit, compared with the polls taken just after the 1st round.
Logged
Red Velvet
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,013
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: November 30, 2020, 07:15:44 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2020, 07:28:59 AM by Red Velvet »



More like the PSDB voter is the Bolsonaro voter which radicalized in last years. Question is whether a significant amount of them will come back to PSDB/shift to a more moderate option in 2022 or if they will stay with Bolsonaro.

The Bolsonaro candidates and the PT are the biggest losers this election, while establishment and centrist types succeeded. Could indicate a move to the center in 2 years, just like 2016 municipal elections (and 2014 generals too but on a smaller level) previously indicated a move to the right.

That said, Bolsonaro is a thing of his own. Wouldn’t be surprised if he kept enough support to sustain himself and go to the runoff in 2022, even if the level of it is bound to go down due to him being more unpopular these days. The 46% he made in 1st round back them will probably be something between 20%-30% in 2022, I think. Which would still take him to the runoff.

More interesting question is who will be his opponent? And will they be able to defeat him? I think it would be an easy win for any centrist candidate, while against the PT (if it’s not Lula) it would have much closer margins due to abstentions.

The opponent could be:
- PT candidate, as the party keeps at least half of their 2018 1st round vote, making at least 15% minimum or possibly more up to 25%, depending of multiple factors including Lula and how unity in the left will be in the future.
- An option from the left that is more associated to the center, in this case Ciro Gomes, who at least keeps his 12% from 2018 and can gain more from these trend movements to the center by both ex-PT voters and also some ex-Bolsonaro voters as well if he plays it right. Ciro needs to show he’s a politician for this era though and invest on internet communication to reach young voters more.
- Center-right option, likely PSDB with João Doria or anyone else representing this center-right spectrum. Could also be TV host Luciano Huck, ex-judge Sérgio Moro or even another figure from experienced parties like DEM for example. They will likely inherit the majority of the 20% (let’s say 16%)  Bolsonaro is likely to lose from the 1st round. Thing is, if divided in many candidates, that vote will split, benefiting Ciro or PT. Also, different candidates have different appeals, so it isn’t exactly an automatic transfer of Bolsonaro defectors.
Logged
Red Velvet
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,013
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: November 30, 2020, 07:21:09 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2020, 07:26:55 AM by Red Velvet »

Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020.

Didn't Bolsonaro underperform his polls in the runoff?

No, not really, it was about the same or only 1%-2% lower than the expected for him and Haddad was showing a really small and slow last minute growth trend though. And in 1st round, Polls showed him reaching 40% in a continuous growth trend and the exit polls captured the numbers just fine.

Thing is that lots of voters decide who they choose on the same day of the vote, which is why it’s natural to have like, up to 5% discrepancies to the last non-exit poll released. Which is why it’s important to pay more attention to significant trends more than the raw numbers. Because Bolsonaro was in a non-stop trend of growth in 1st round of 2018, people always expected that he could get close to 50% (he made 46%) based on the poll numbers.
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: November 30, 2020, 07:26:16 AM »

In the Datafolha poll published in the eve of the runoff in 2018, Bolsonaro had 54%, Haddad had 46%. In the Ibope poll, Bolsonaro had 53%, Haddad had 47%. The result was Bolsonaro 55%, Haddad 45%
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: November 30, 2020, 07:30:28 AM »

Another issue important to mention: Crivella had 36% in the runoff despite being a horrible mayor. We should remember that in 2022 each state will elect only one senator. The election for the senate has no runoff. The vote for the left should not split.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: November 30, 2020, 07:30:51 AM »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: November 30, 2020, 07:41:54 AM »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

Agreed.

Anti-Bolsonaro forces will also likely run into the same problem  that US political parties have when out of power. That is, during  midterm election, the President has to wear their record, while the the opposition isn't tied to a particular person and can be more wide ranging... but when the President comes up for re-election, their opponent is no longer general opposition, but a specific person, with enemies, mistakes of their own etc.
Logged
Red Velvet
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,013
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: November 30, 2020, 07:46:45 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2020, 07:53:16 AM by Red Velvet »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: November 30, 2020, 07:54:07 AM »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).

Why is PT so divisive these days?
Logged
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,604


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: November 30, 2020, 08:14:51 AM »

The results of the 2020 Municipal Elections in Brazil were very bad for all the left

PT: 2016 was already a disaster and PT didn't recover. PT had some small gains in the election for vereador in the big cities, had some small gains in the election for mayor in the big cities but not enough to win. It was the first time in the history of the party that it lost all the 26 state capitals. Besides, PT lost many mayors and vereadores in small towns in the Northeast. I don't consider Tatto's performance in São Paulo a disaster of the party because PT candidate de facto in São Paulo was Boulos.

PCdoB: in 2016, PCdoB elected a lot of mayors and vereadores in the countryside of the state of Maranhão, which is under administration of the PCdoB governor Flávio Dino. In 2020, the party lost all of them. Dino was supporting a candidate in São Luís who is not from the PCdoB and he lost. The party was competitive only in Porto Alegre, but Manuela had a narrow defeat. PCdoB had zero vereadores in many big cities.

PSOL: The biggest victory was Belém. The party also elected 4 mayors in small towns. Besides these exceptions, PSOL continued being only a party for the legislative branch. Freixo declined to run in Rio de Janeiro. Raul Marcelo used to be competitive in Sorocaba, but he performed very bad this year. Guilherme Boulos became a famous national leader, but 40% in São Paulo is no more than the usual perfomance of the left in the city.

PSB/PDT: Ciro Gomes coalition didn't perform well outside the Northeast. Martha Rocha, Marcio França, Gouro and Juliana Brizola were not competitive. The most important victory of PDT outside the Northeast was Niteroi. In the runoff in Fortaleza, Sarto was supported by PDT, PSB, PT, PSOL, PCdoB and PSDB and had a narrow win against a pro-Bolsonaro police officer.

Rede: disapeared
Logged
Red Velvet
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,013
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: November 30, 2020, 09:11:13 AM »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).

Why is PT so divisive these days?

4 consecutive presidential election wins is something bound to put off people who want change. But also, “Car-Wash” effects strongly consolidated this feeling in society.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: November 30, 2020, 09:24:06 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2020, 09:35:45 AM by Mike88 »

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).
Fair point, but, like I said I'm not certain the left/center-left will be strongly appealing in 2022. Imagine the scenario where Boulos and Ciro both fight for votes on the left in 1st round, that means the "centrão" and Bolsonaro go easily for the runoff, not to mention that PT will probably have their own candidate. As of now, my early prediction for 2022 is something like this:

32% Bolsonaro
25% "Centrão"/Independent
20% PT
14% Ciro
  6% Boulos
  3% Others

You're right that local elections are not a direct sign of what will happen in the general elections, however local power is important to consolidate the party machine and organization and after this election, the left has very little power.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 12 queries.