Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)
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  Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)
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Author Topic: Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)  (Read 16901 times)
Red Velvet
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« Reply #200 on: November 28, 2020, 06:03:09 PM »
« edited: November 28, 2020, 06:27:42 PM by Red Velvet »

DataFolha polls on valid votes:

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB) 55%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 45%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM) 68%
Crivella (Rep) 32%

Recife
Marília Arraes (PT) 50%
João Campos (PSB) 50%

Ibope polls (valid votes):

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB) 57%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 43%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM) 68%
Crivella (Rep) 32%

Recife
João Campos (PSB) 50%
Marília Arraes (PT) 50%

Vitória
Delegado Pasolini (Rep) 50%
João Coser (PT) 50%

Fortaleza
Sarto (PDT) 61%
Capitão Wagner (PROS) 39%

Porto Alegre
Manuela D’ávila (PCdoB) 51%
Sebastião Melo (MDB) 49%

Belém
Edmilson Rodrigues (PSOL) 58%
Delegado Eguchi (PATRIOTA) 42%

Maceió (from yesterday)
JHC (PSB) 57%
Alfredo Gaspar (MDB) 43%

Aracajú (from one week ago)
Edvaldo Nogueira (PDT) 62%
Delegada Danielle (PODEMOS) 38%

The pro-Bolsonaro candidates will be destroyed in Rio and in Fortaleza. Probably in Belém too. Also, the pro-Sérgio Moro car-wash candidate in Aracajú will lose too!

Vitória is the one I’m more worried about, as the option against PT is a Bolsonaro friendly candidate (Delegado Pasolini) and it will be close.

Boulos probably won’t have enough momentum to make a last minute turnaround but his campaign is already a success considering the status of smaller party that PSOL has and how villified it tends to be by conservatives due to its social progressive stances (weed, LGBT, abortion, etc). It was already a big deal to see Freixo managing to make the runoff in Rio during 2016 and getting 40% of the vote in the middle of a conservative wave, to have Boulos getting possibly more than 45% tomorrow in São Paulo shows how the party slowly grows with time, as these social topics become less taboo and more openly discussed. I think they have a bright future.

The Belém numbers are good for PSOL too but doesn’t speak as much about the party because Edmilson is an established name in the city (ex-mayor, between 1997 and 2004) and was a member of PT, before leaving and joining PSOL. So a lot of that success there was already previously established by the candidate in particular.

Also, Covas is at least civil and democratic (in these days this is important) and for the regular PSDB standards, there’s much worse they could’ve done. Watching the SP election be mostly respectful was so inspiring.

Porto Alegre is very close! Surprising considering the Melo momentum in last minute of the 1st round vote. I don’t know whether the happenings of last week in Porto Alegre had an effect, when a Black man was murdered by securities of a Carrefour supermarket in the city. Manuela strongly supported the protests against Carrefour and even went to them. But something happened for her to surpass Melo, it was 54% vs 46% in his favor just 4 days ago in the same pollster. Rooting for Manuela and the communist party but it looks like it will be very close, whoever wins.
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buritobr
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« Reply #201 on: November 28, 2020, 06:26:14 PM »

Ibope polls today, considering all the votes. I prefer to use the percentages considering all the votes so that we have an idea about the number of votes which can change in the last hours

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 36%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 54%, Marcelo Crivella 26%
Recife: João Campos 42%, Marília Arraes 42%
Porto Alegre: Manuela Davila 45%, Sebastião Melo 43%
Fortaleza: Sarto 54%, Capitão Wagner 35%
Belém: Edmílson Rodrigues 51%, Delegado Eguchi 37%
Goiânia: Maguito Vilela 51%, Vanderlan Cardoso 35%
Vitória: Delegado Pazolini 46%, João Coser 46%
Campinas: Dário Saadi 40%, Rafa Zimbaldi 33%

If Edmílson win in Belém, PSOL will have its biggest victory in elections for the executive branch in its 15 year history. Edmílson was lucky because his opponent Eguchi is pro-Bolsonaro, and the center-right votes in the runoff are split. If his opponent were the center-right candidate Priante, it would be much harder for Edmílson.

In Recife, if Marilia and João tie, Marilia wins. According to Brazilian law, if the election is tied, the oldest candidate win. Marilia is 36 and João is 26. But of course, the probability of a tie is very low.

I think the growth trend of Boulos stopped because of the covid diagnosis. The right had the opportunity to portray him as an hypocritical, because Boulos criticized Bolsonaro's attitude related to covid. This is unfair, because since Boulos had the diagnosis, he stopped all his activities, unlike Bolsonaro.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #202 on: November 28, 2020, 06:55:59 PM »

Who replaces Edmilson’s PSOL seat in federal congress, if he is elected mayor?
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buritobr
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« Reply #203 on: November 28, 2020, 07:12:00 PM »

I think it is Professor Carlos Vaz, the PSOL candidate in Pará in 2018 who had the second biggest number of votes https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/candidatos/pa/deputado-federal/professor-carlos-vaz,5011
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Mike88
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« Reply #204 on: November 29, 2020, 02:49:08 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 02:53:09 PM by Mike88 »

Polls about to close in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Recife.

It seems like there will be no exit polls this time.
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Mike88
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« Reply #205 on: November 29, 2020, 03:01:56 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 03:05:04 PM by Mike88 »

Polls are now closed in 52 of the 57 cities with a 2nd round.

IBOPE has confirmed it didn't conduct any exit polls during the day. So, let's wait for the results.

Results page: https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/resultado-das-apuracoes/cidades/
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seb_pard
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« Reply #206 on: November 29, 2020, 03:05:08 PM »

Fingers crossed for Sao Paulo
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Mike88
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« Reply #207 on: November 29, 2020, 03:15:24 PM »

First results from Belém city: (5.9% in)

50.3% PSOL
49.7% PATRIOTA
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seb_pard
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« Reply #208 on: November 29, 2020, 03:22:44 PM »

First results from Belém city: (5.9% in)

50.3% PSOL
49.7% PATRIOTA
Now with 62.7% in

51.2% PSOL
48.8% PATRIOTA
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Mike88
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« Reply #209 on: November 29, 2020, 03:22:58 PM »

First resuts from São Paulo: 0.39% in

73.8% PSDB
26.2% PSOL

Also, first results from Rio de Janeiro: 0.11% in

64.2% DEM
35.8% REPUBLICANOS
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Mike88
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« Reply #210 on: November 29, 2020, 03:24:38 PM »

Recife city first results: 2.65% in

54.1% PSB
45.9% PT
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seb_pard
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« Reply #211 on: November 29, 2020, 03:25:33 PM »

First resuts from São Paulo: 0.39% in

73.8% PSDB
26.2% PSOL

Also, first results from Rio de Janeiro: 0.11% in

64.2% DEM
35.8% REPUBLICANOS

About São Paulo, Covas is winning comfortably in Indianopolis and Sapopemba, Vila Jacui is 61% Covas and Cidade Tiradentes is 59% Boulos
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Mike88
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« Reply #212 on: November 29, 2020, 03:25:53 PM »

First results from Belém city: (5.9% in)

50.3% PSOL
49.7% PATRIOTA
Now with 62.7% in

51.2% PSOL
48.8% PATRIOTA

Still very close, but PSOL seems on track to win Belém.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #213 on: November 29, 2020, 03:27:44 PM »

To be honest I'm very interesting in Pinheiros. It seems to me like the perfect district for a PSOL candidate in the future
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Mike88
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« Reply #214 on: November 29, 2020, 03:31:14 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 03:38:04 PM by Mike88 »

Turnout at 70% in São Paulo city.

More votes are counted: 2.48% in

62.2% PSDB
37.8% PSOL
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Mike88
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« Reply #215 on: November 29, 2020, 03:35:25 PM »

Porto Alegre city: (4.11% in)

52.9% MDB
47.1% PC do B
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #216 on: November 29, 2020, 03:35:56 PM »

Results in my section today:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 77,25%
Crivella (REP): 22,75%

In the neighboring section of mine it was an even larger bloodbath, as mine tends to be slightly older (and therefore more conservative) in comparison:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 90,05%
Crivella (REP): 9,95%

But these two are results from a south zone neighborhood, which tends to lean more upper and middle class, is less driven by religion and deeply hates Crivella. I’m curious to see results of places in the West Zone.
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Mike88
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« Reply #217 on: November 29, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »

Vitória city: 34.01% in

60.2% REPUBLICANOS
39.8% PT
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seb_pard
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« Reply #218 on: November 29, 2020, 03:40:02 PM »

Results in my section today:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 77,25%
Crivella (REP): 22,75%

In the neighboring section of mine it was an even larger bloodbath, as mine tends to be slightly older (and therefore more conservative) in comparison:
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 90,05%
Crivella (REP): 9,95%

But these two are results from a south zone neighborhood, which tends to lean more upper and middle class, is less driven by religion and deeply hates Crivella. I’m curious to see results of places in the West Zone.
I'm seeing some resuts from Deodoro and Santa Cruz, and high 50/low 60 for Paes
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #219 on: November 29, 2020, 03:43:17 PM »
« Edited: November 29, 2020, 03:47:47 PM by Red Velvet »

Vitória city: 34.01% in

60.2% REPUBLICANOS
39.8% PT

Terrible for PT, especially if Marília Arraes also loses to João Campos in Recife. Zero capitals won by PT. That scares me for 2022, especially if a runoff between PT and Bolsonaro is repeated.

Meanwhile confirmed PSOL victory in Belém now, against a Bolsonaro candidate! It’s official, PSOL gets their biggest executive victory in their history!
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #220 on: November 29, 2020, 03:46:41 PM »

I love how fast the vote is counted omg. I closed my sector just 40 minutes ago and we’re already getting confirmed results. Bless electronic voting!
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Mike88
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« Reply #221 on: November 29, 2020, 03:50:25 PM »

Vitória city: 34.01% in

60.2% REPUBLICANOS
39.8% PT

Terrible for PT, especially if Marília Arraes also loses to João Campos in Recife. Zero capitals won by PT. That scares me for 2022, especially if a runoff between PT and Bolsonaro is repeated.

Meanwhile confirmed PSOL victory in Belém now, against a Bolsonaro candidate! It’s official, PSOL gets their biggest executive victory in their history!

Indeed, Campos seems on track to win, although there's still a lot to count. Vitória is curious as polls predicted a close race, but PT is trailing badly. In Porto Alegre, Manuela is also not doing well so far.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #222 on: November 29, 2020, 03:50:26 PM »

Boulos over 40% with 8.8% in
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Mike88
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« Reply #223 on: November 29, 2020, 03:51:02 PM »

I love how fast the vote is counted omg. I closed my sector just 40 minutes ago and we’re already getting confirmed results. Bless electronic voting!
And that Portuguese hackers got caught. xD
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Mike88
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« Reply #224 on: November 29, 2020, 03:51:52 PM »

São Paulo: 20.18% in

60.1% PSDB
39.9% PSOL
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