2020 Venezuelan Parliamentary electoral type event
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #50 on: December 06, 2020, 05:00:54 PM »

Leaked ballot of the 2020 Venezuelan parliamentary election:


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Skye
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« Reply #51 on: December 06, 2020, 05:11:18 PM »

Leaked ballot of the 2020 Venezuelan parliamentary election:




lmao. That was basically the 2018 Election.

Anyways, controversy arose today when Maduro voted in a voting center at Fuerte Tiuna, (a sort of citadel that's home to the most notorious military base in the country) instead of his usual voting center in working class Catia, where he was born.



So, what the tweet is saying is that earlier today, the CNE webpage listed Maduro's voting center as the one in Catia, and then changed to Fuerte Tiuna in the afternoon when Maduro was voting. That sort of thing isn't supposed to happen, it's not possible.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #52 on: December 07, 2020, 04:06:37 AM »

My impression from Venezuela is that Maduro and Guaidó are both very unpopular figures, while someone like Hugo Chavez, a dead person, is well-remembered by a significant amount. When the dead past leader is more liked than the two current alternatives, political apathy naturally grows as there is no good alternative showing a good path and hope for the future.

Opposition and big western countries counted on the military turning against Maduro and the Latin American in me felt this was wrong. Military cannot be trusted even if you think they can advance your interests, they represent more bad things than good and in Venezuela’s case specifically, they are deeply involved with the corruption and authoritarianism of Maduro’s government. Military doesn’t care about left or right, even less about democracy, they love authoritarians who give them power and large space to act.

To count on the military good senses without giving them something better than what they have is extremely naive. During the Cold War the military dictatorships supported by the US in places like Chile, Argentina and Brazil weren’t successful in their implementation because “they prevented leftism”, but because they were a possible path for the military and authoritarians to benefit and take control and skyrocket to total power. The strategy in Venezuela always seemed weird because it appeared to count on the military not being authoritarian-friendly and caring about democracy out of their good heart lmao. Of course they stayed with Maduro, he gives them power.

Focus should have been given to first the ousting of Maduro and then new fair elections, NOT the Guaidó is the self-declared new president complete nonsense. If you act like Venezuela has a president in Guaidó, you give him a power that he doesn’t have and indirectly implies that Maduro is powerless because he isn’t the real leader. It’s like pretending that a problem doesn’t exist and therefore, it can’t be directly fully addressed. Maduro is the leader of Venezuela, an authoritarian and undemocratic one who should be taken out by Venezuelans, but he is the one with actual power.

Also, Venezuelans appear to want to survive more than anything these days. I don’t think it must be good PR internally the politics of international sanctions that end up suffocating the citizens more than they do any harm to the Maduro government. Maduro is set to only strengthen himself internally. International western community went all in for Guaidó and it spectacularly backfired, to have him representing the opposition helps Maduro government more than it hurts. Maduro can campaign that he’s conspiring against them while literally buying the apathy of poorer segments of the population with government programs to feed them. Because those sectors are the ones who appear to be still affected by the economic crisis, not the richer ones.
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Skye
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« Reply #53 on: December 07, 2020, 06:15:17 AM »



No surprises here, abysmal turnout (which is probably even lower than what is being reported), Chavismo's GPP is winning in a landslide, and in fact it's getting almost the exact same % that Maduro got in his 2018 election.



Puzkas (a well informed Venezuelan journalist that covers elections) is saying the GPP is on track to win 240 out of 277 Deputies. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I've tried to check for the results myself but the CNE webpage is down.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #54 on: December 07, 2020, 07:04:17 AM »

I am kind of curious to see how PCV does. Getting into the parliament by accusing Maduro of not being "bolivarian enough" is uh... interesting lol
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Skye
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« Reply #55 on: December 07, 2020, 07:20:10 AM »

I am kind of curious to see how PCV does. Getting into the parliament by accusing Maduro of not being "bolivarian enough" is uh... interesting lol

This tweet says "2.08%" of seats which means they got... a whooping 1 seat of the National List, and that'll probably be it. Can't expect anything more considering they got only 2.7% of the vote.

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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #56 on: December 07, 2020, 11:43:55 AM »

I don't respect Maduro or his government, but honestly, the right doesn't have my sympathy as well. They ed up enormously in the 1990's. It's how Chavez came into power in the first place.
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PSOL
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« Reply #57 on: December 07, 2020, 01:09:34 PM »

I’m actually interested to see what strategy the APP actually has in affecting PSUV. Electoralism, especially with such few seats of power and influence as they have, seems like a dead end. They can’t rely on its close fraternal parties in Latin America caring given the circumstances and chance for another Brazil or Ecuador. More importantly, Cuba cannot abandon Venezuela given the geopolitical needs of both countries, and even the likes of PCV’s own survival considering they are target #2 after the Chavista leadership.

Unless PCV and friends have deep penetration in the major trade unions I’m not aware about, or that the militias against Maduro start threatening them very carefully for a seat on the table, I doubt anything really happens.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #58 on: December 07, 2020, 01:19:22 PM »

According CNE's results page (www2.cne.gob.ve/an2020) updated to 04:39 GMT-4. And apply D'Hondt on the 48-seats "National adjudication list" (based on regional-level districts results), the preliminary distribution of seats will be this:
GPP 38 (68.9% of valid votes, 62.3% only in PSUV ticket)
AD 3 (7.1% of valid votes)
ELCAMBIO 2 (4.6% of valid votes)
PV-VPA-VU 2 (4.2% of valid votes)
AP-Cambiemos 1 (3.3% of valid votes)
COPEI 1 (2.9% of valid votes)
PCV 1 (2.7% of valid votes)

Out of parliament Claudio Fermin' SPV (1.6%) or MAS (1.3%). If the Democratic Alliance parties were together in a joint list instead of the four lists who ran in the National district, they could have taken 2 seats from GPP/PSUV, meaningless anyway.

On the regional districts lists, is expected who Democratic Alliance only get around 9-10 seats out of 96 possible, so the "opposition" (or non-PSUV parties) will be represented around just 20/274 seats (GPP/PSUV likely has won all the FPTP/majority ranked "nominal" districts, 130 seats in total). The 3 indigenous seats elected will be held on Wednesday only for their respective communities, and chavismo-backed candidates will be likely elected.

Turnout was of course abysmal, officially 31%, but according independent sources the real one were less than 20%. Chavismo loses around 1 million votes respect 2015 election and more than 2 respect the 2018 questionable presidential election.

As expected, the Latin American and European countries allied with Guaidó already don't recognized the result and they said the election was not free and fair and away from democratic standards. The 3-question Consulta Popular starts today with virtual voting until the end of the week with a presencial voting.
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Derpist
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« Reply #59 on: December 07, 2020, 01:34:46 PM »

It's hard to hold a functional election when a huge swath of the country is being funded from abroad to fundamentally deny the legitimacy of the state.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #60 on: December 09, 2020, 10:45:45 PM »

Final seat composition (99.83% counted)
Great Patriotic Pole: 253 (37/48 in the national list, 86/96 in regional lists and all 130 nominal lists)
Democratic Alliance: 18 (on the national list: 3 from AD, 2 from ElCambio, 2 from AP-CMC and 1 from COPEI, plus 10/96 seats in regional lists)
United Venezuela/Venezuela First: 2
People's Revolutionary Alternative (PCV): 1
Indigenous (likely pro-chavismo): 3

Turnout: 30.48%

Among the elected "opponents" are Bernabé Gutierrez (leader of the kidnapped AD party) or the former presidential candidate and evangelical pastor Javier Bertucci or the "scorpion" of PJ (Venezuela First) José Brito.

To add more irregularities to the process, the CNE admitted modifications to the lists of candidates AFTER the election, so the Ecological Movement (MOVEV) joined the national list of AP and Cambiemos DURING the vote counting, which added a seat more (Cambiemos' leader Timoteo Zambrano), while the disputed President of Parliament Luis Parra who was originally nominated on the regional list of his native state Yaracuy, as he was originally not elected, the national list of his alliance (United Venezuela) was modified to be second on the list and achieve his re-election. Changes that are illegal and outside the electoral laws in force, but that the electoral body has apparently made in exchange for favors.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #61 on: December 10, 2020, 09:00:59 AM »

It's hard to hold a functional election when a huge swath of the country is being funded from abroad to fundamentally deny the legitimacy of the state.

You have a blue USSR avatar, what's that about? Smiley
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Skye
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« Reply #62 on: December 12, 2020, 08:41:40 AM »

Guaidó's "Consulta Popular" (basically a sort of referendum on what his interim government should do) is happening today. Well, since it's online, it's been going since the week started, I think, but today is like, the "in person" event where those who want to vote in person do so.

Don't ask me what's going to come out of this. I don't know. I suppose Guaidó is simply looking for a strong turnout.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #63 on: December 12, 2020, 11:11:17 AM »

Guaidó's "Consulta Popular" (basically a sort of referendum on what his interim government should do) is happening today. Well, since it's online, it's been going since the week started, I think, but today is like, the "in person" event where those who want to vote in person do so.

Don't ask me what's going to come out of this. I don't know. I suppose Guaidó is simply looking for a strong turnout.

Did not know that he was recognised as president by so many - 60 odd - countries.

(not that it appears to have made much difference in practice)
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #64 on: December 12, 2020, 01:20:52 PM »

Guaidó's "Consulta Popular" (basically a sort of referendum on what his interim government should do) is happening today. Well, since it's online, it's been going since the week started, I think, but today is like, the "in person" event where those who want to vote in person do so.

Don't ask me what's going to come out of this. I don't know. I suppose Guaidó is simply looking for a strong turnout.

Did not know that he was recognised as president by so many - 60 odd - countries.

(not that it appears to have made much difference in practice)

There was a big wave of US allies (mostly in Europe and South America) that did it right away when he proclaimed himself president, not sure if any have since retracted save those that have seen changes in government.
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Skye
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« Reply #65 on: December 13, 2020, 04:16:55 AM »

At 87% in, turnout for Guaidó's "Counsulta Popular" stands at 6.4 millions.

If you ask me, that's a decent number, if true.


Breakdown:

Online: 2.4 Millions
In Person, Venezuela: 3.2 millions
In Person, Abroad: 844K
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #66 on: December 13, 2020, 11:24:53 AM »

Of course, "if true".
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Skye
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« Reply #67 on: January 05, 2021, 08:36:21 AM »

Today is the day the new National Assembly (the one elected in the December 6 event, full of Maduro loyalists) will be seated. Yesterday, chavismo announced that the Assembly's Presidency (a position akin to the HOR Speaker, for those in the US) will go to Jorge Rodríguez. Rodríguez is a former Vice-President, former Mayor of the Libertador Municipality (Caracas) and currently serves as Minister for Communication. I've read some analysis that this is a play from Maduro to cement his support inside chavista circles, since Rodríguez is known to be loyal to Maduro. This is in detriment of Diosdado Cabello, who was the Assembly's President before Guaidó, and who will now hold the position of "Jefe de Bancada" (somewhat like a House Majority Leader).

The current opposition-led National Assembly voted a few days ago to ratify their continuity and keep Guaidó in his post. However, yesterday a few opposition deputies announced that they'll cease to serve as deputies today. This is a major sign of fractures inside the opposition, regarding Guaidó's strategy.

Since Guaidó is set to "lose" his position today, there's been speculation as to what the Maduro regime would do today. It seems a first step has been taken:



Security forces (I think the logo is from the DGCIM, a Counterintelligence branch of the military) are posted outside of Guaido's neighborhood of Santa Fe, in southeastern Caracas. Whether this is an intimidation tactic or if they actually plan on taking Guaidó into custody remains to be seen.
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