Seems to be over estimating Loeffler and underestimating Warnock to me. Warnock may just not have name ID at this point bc he doesn't have to run ads just yet. I'm sure he's just laying low until prob the summer while the two of them slug it out.
Warnock now has a very significant scandal. It might be best for him to drop out and Dems to rally behind Tarver. If Warnock hobbles on, a 3 way split between Warnock-Tarver-Lieberman basically ensures a Collins vs. Loeffler runoff. They could rally around Lieberman instead, but I really don't think he could win a runoff.