TX NBC/Marist: Cornyn +8 over Hegar
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  TX NBC/Marist: Cornyn +8 over Hegar
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Author Topic: TX NBC/Marist: Cornyn +8 over Hegar  (Read 1449 times)
21 Young Gun Salute
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« on: March 01, 2020, 09:49:11 AM »


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S019
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2020, 10:40:49 AM »

Marist is a high quality pollster, however I wonder why Cornyn is doing as well as Trump here and Hegar is lagging. I was told by some people that Cornyn was a weak incumbent and would do worse than Trump, but that doesn't seem to be happening

Still Lean R
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2020, 11:34:05 AM »

I wonder why Cornyn is doing as well as Trump here and Hegar is lagging.

I do think this board often forgets that a lot of voters are hesitant to say they are supporting someone they've never heard of or have the faintest familiarity with, even blind partisans.

Hegar's campaign seems to have taken this primary a bit for granted, and especially didn't seem to foresee a candidate generating left-wing grassroots support the way Ramirez seems to be.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2020, 06:12:00 PM »

I wonder why Cornyn is doing as well as Trump here and Hegar is lagging.

I do think this board often forgets that a lot of voters are hesitant to say they are supporting someone they've never heard of or have the faintest familiarity with, even blind partisans.

Hegar's campaign seems to have taken this primary a bit for granted, and especially didn't seem to foresee a candidate generating left-wing grassroots support the way Ramirez seems to be.

Ramirez has <10% support.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2020, 12:12:32 PM »

Marist is a high quality pollster, however I wonder why Cornyn is doing as well as Trump here and Hegar is lagging. I was told by some people that Cornyn was a weak incumbent and would do worse than Trump, but that doesn't seem to be happening

Still Lean R
Cornyn, despite his conversion to the Religion of Trump, still comes off as a Generic R.  Ted Cruz was a unique case of awful, which is why Beto was able to make it so close.  Plus, it didn't hurt that the D primary in 2018 was virtually uncontested, allowing Beto to treat 2017-18 as an 18-month general election campaign.

Hegar has had to deal with a very crowded field...in fact, the Texan version of the 2020 Presidential crowd.  She's had to campaign just to survive a primary, not affording her the Beto Privilege.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2020, 01:03:18 PM »

Hegar isnt electable
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2020, 06:36:00 PM »

Hegar will not win, but she will probably manage to come within single digits. I can see Cornyn winning by roughly this margin (8-9 percentage points), while Trump carries Texas by a closer one-probably between 2 and 5 percentage points.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2020, 06:47:29 PM »

Likely R , Closer to Safe than Lean.

Trump will have to lose TX by at least 3 points for Cornyn to lose and that will only happen in a 1980 scenario. Even a 2008 scenario where Trump barely loses Texas will result in basically a 2 point win for Cornyn
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2020, 06:50:52 PM »

McGrath and Harrison are more electable than Hegar, that's why Dems are going with Bullock to lock down the Senate
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2020, 12:50:29 AM »

Democrats are dumb as hell for not putting more effort into this race. An 8 point lead against someone with basically no name recognition outside the Austin metro is an extremely weak result for Cornyn.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2020, 11:53:27 AM »

Amanda Edwards would've been a better candidate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2020, 01:11:52 PM »

Democrats are dumb as hell for not putting more effort into this race. An 8 point lead against someone with basically no name recognition outside the Austin metro is an extremely weak result for Cornyn.

This.  They likely will after the late May runoff is resolved.  I don't get why everyone is so down on Hegar here?  She came out of nowhere to lose by 3ish in a formerly safe R seat in 2018, so she must be doing something right. 

There is zero reason not to expect this race to track within 1-3% of Trump vs. Biden statewide. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2020, 01:12:24 PM »

Amanda Edwards would've been a better candidate.

Why?  What's wrong with Hegar that you would prefer a random city councilor over her?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2020, 01:16:06 PM »

Amanda Edwards would've been a better candidate.

Why?  What's wrong with Hegar that you would prefer a random city councilor over her?

Because she’s young and charismatic. Not to mention she’s an African American from Houston, which is a very crucial demographic in an important area in Texas for Democratic statewide prospects.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2020, 05:51:22 PM »

Democrats are dumb as hell for not putting more effort into this race. An 8 point lead against someone with basically no name recognition outside the Austin metro is an extremely weak result for Cornyn.

Not really, given that Trump is only leading by 4 and Cornyn is not someone who could outperform the top of the ticket by more than 3-4 points so this result is not at all surprising.


Im gonna say this Cornyn will only lose if Trump loses TX by 3 points or else he will be reelected so basically Cornyn will lose if its 1980, barely win if its 2008 and if its 1976/2004/2012 this race will basically be safe because there is no way Cornyn will lose TX if Trump is winning the state
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2020, 05:59:13 PM »

Trump is a risk of losing TX, and in a wave TX will fall
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2020, 09:32:46 PM »

Amanda Edwards would've been a better candidate.

Why?  What's wrong with Hegar that you would prefer a random city councilor over her?

Because she’s young and charismatic. Not to mention she’s an African American from Houston, which is a very crucial demographic in an important area in Texas for Democratic statewide prospects.

Ramirez was that and then some, and for a much bigger and more crucial bloc.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2020, 09:46:29 PM »

I voted for Royce West in the primary because I've always liked him and even though I'm currently just outside of his district he's been my State Senator in the past and always has been very responsive about constituent concerns.

Will probably vote for him again in the runoff. I have no real problem with Hegar, but I'm always going to support home town pols when they run statewide.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #18 on: March 11, 2020, 04:24:32 AM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Marist College on 2020-02-27

Summary: D: 41%, R: 49%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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