Texas Legislature Megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Starting this thread right now since it appears there is none, and Texas will have a huge battle for control of the State House this fall.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

House District 134: Houston/the Galleria

This seems like the natural place to start this thread as the bluest seat in the legislature that is held by a Republican. Five term incumbent Sarah Davis (R) has held onto her increasingly blue seat by slowly decreasing margins. She won in 2018 by a 53-47 margin against an underfunded opponent even as Beto O’Rourke won this seat by a whopping 60-39 margin. This seat is pretty much certain to swing even further against Trump this year as well (he lost it 55-39 in 2016).

This year, Democrats have made flipping this seat their top priority. Three Democrats are running to go against her. Of those, attorney Ann Johnson appears to be the best funded and have the best connections.

Davis is a proven vote getter, but this will probably be her hardest race yet, but it will be a pretty tough needle to thread with Trump likely to lose the district by at least 20 points. I rate this one a genuine Tossup.

[smoltchanov]

House District 134: Houston/the Galleria

This seems like the natural place to start this thread as the bluest seat in the legislature that is held by a Republican. Five term incumbent Sarah Davis (R) has held onto her increasingly blue seat by slowly decreasing margins. She won in 2018 by a 53-47 margin against an underfunded opponent even as Beto O’Rourke won this seat by a whopping 60-39 margin. This seat is pretty much certain to swing even further against Trump this year as well (he lost it 55-39 in 2016).

This year, Democrats have made flipping this seat their top priority. Three Democrats are running to go against her. Of those, attorney Ann Johnson appears to be the best funded and have the best connections.

Davis is a proven vote getter, but this will probably be her hardest race yet, but it will be a pretty tough needle to thread with Trump likely to lose the district by at least 20 points. I rate this one a genuine Tossup.

Well, Davis is by far the most moderate Republican not only in Texas, but, probably, in the whole South, and could be easily mistaken for moderate Democrat itself. So, ideologically, even if district will flip - difference won't be great.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

State House District 92 (the one I live in) has an interesting race going on too. It is rapidly moving left (I believe in 2012 Stickland didn't even have a democratic challenger). Stickland is retiring this cycle after barely holding on in 2018. His Democratic Challenger, Steve Riddell, is running once again this year but faces a primary opponent in Jeff Whitfield. On the Republican side, Jeff Cason, a businessman who is essentially Stickland's chosen successor, and Jim Griffin, the former mayor of Bedford (a city within the district) are facing off, along with Taylor Gillig, a veteran who isn't getting much attention. The GOP primary in particular has been intense with attacks being lobbed between Cason and Griffin. Not really sure who will win or if perhaps it is close enough that it advances to a runoff due to Gillig's presence. Riddell is probably favored on the democratic side. As for the GE....tossup. This HD is within TX-24 (for U.S. House) which should tell you more about it's movement.

[libertpaulian]

What about the State Senate?

[lfromnj]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

[Storr]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

The fact that Texas State Senators represent more people than US Congress members is crazy (iirc California is the only other state this also is true)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Here is a good run-down of many of the races for the legislature in The Texan

Overall, their ratings are very solid. For Republican-held seats, they have Meyer (R-Dallas County) and HD-138 (open Harris County seat) as Lean Democratic pickups. In addition, Chen Button (R-Dallas), Shaheen (R-Collin County) at pure tossups, which I’d agree with.

I think they are being a little conservative in their assessment of Democratic seats, as I’d move Michelle Beckley (D-Denton) to Lean D, and similarly shift Talarico (D-Williamson), Goodwin (D-Travis) and Zwiener (D-Hays), Mesa (D-Dallas) an additional column left to Likely D. I think they are spot on for rating Gina Calanni’s seat a tossup, though I think it tilts in her favor with it being a Presidential year.

They don’t have assessments on all competitive seats, like Sarah Davis’ and some other Republicans in Beto seats (Jeff Leach, Matt Shaheen, Lynn Stucky, Steve Allison),  so I’ll continue to build this out.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

Yes, Democrats left two seats on the table in 2018: the Collin County based seat and Joan Huffman’s Harris County seat that both went for Beto by decent amounts. Pete Flores (my senator) is the only one in a competitive race this year, and his seat is probably Lean D, and that’s being charitable to him. His district is basically a more Democratic version of TX-23

[Skill and Chance]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

Yes, Democrats left two seats on the table in 2018: the Collin County based seat and Joan Huffman’s Harris County seat that both went for Beto by decent amounts. Pete Flores (my senator) is the only one in a competitive race this year, and his seat is probably Lean D, and that’s being charitable to him. His district is basically a more Democratic version of TX-23

How many seats are Texas Senate R's above the procedural supermajority threshold?

[Skill and Chance]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

Yes, Democrats left two seats on the table in 2018: the Collin County based seat and Joan Huffman’s Harris County seat that both went for Beto by decent amounts. Pete Flores (my senator) is the only one in a competitive race this year, and his seat is probably Lean D, and that’s being charitable to him. His district is basically a more Democratic version of TX-23

How many seats are Texas Senate R's above the procedural supermajority threshold?  I think this blocking technique could be used to force the backup commission to intervene for legislative redistricting and potentially send the congressional map to federal court.  Of course the backup commission would either all R or 4R/1D if Dems take the lower house, but 4 of the 5 are statewide officials up in 2022, so it's reasonable to expect they would be more cautious about provoking backlash in their statewide elections.

[Indy Texas]

House District 134: Houston/the Galleria

This seems like the natural place to start this thread as the bluest seat in the legislature that is held by a Republican. Five term incumbent Sarah Davis (R) has held onto her increasingly blue seat by slowly decreasing margins. She won in 2018 by a 53-47 margin against an underfunded opponent even as Beto O’Rourke won this seat by a whopping 60-39 margin. This seat is pretty much certain to swing even further against Trump this year as well (he lost it 55-39 in 2016).

This year, Democrats have made flipping this seat their top priority. Three Democrats are running to go against her. Of those, attorney Ann Johnson appears to be the best funded and have the best connections.

Davis is a proven vote getter, but this will probably be her hardest race yet, but it will be a pretty tough needle to thread with Trump likely to lose the district by at least 20 points. I rate this one a genuine Tossup.

Well, Davis is by far the most moderate Republican not only in Texas, but, probably, in the whole South, and could be easily mistaken for moderate Democrat itself. So, ideologically, even if district will flip - difference won't be great.

Davis is the sort of person who would probably switch to the Democratic Party if they took over the House, simply to make it easier to get committee chairs and whatnot.

Part of the reason she can get away with being so independent and breaking with her party so often is that her district is full of high-information voters who take the time to go down their ballot and learn about her. I recall reading somewhere that HD-134 has the highest percentage of graduate/doctoral degree holders of any district in the state. She gets a lot of support from Democrats because the Democrats in her district are lawyers and doctors and medical researchers, not elderly black women who reflexively just vote straight ticket and leave it at that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why the f#ck do they rate my state house seat hd 114 as only lean D? Clinton won this seat by like 9 f#cking points in the Dallas suburbs that are only getting bluer and we have a good democratic incumbent in it who won by like 11 last time.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

Yes, Democrats left two seats on the table in 2018: the Collin County based seat and Joan Huffman’s Harris County seat that both went for Beto by decent amounts. Pete Flores (my senator) is the only one in a competitive race this year, and his seat is probably Lean D, and that’s being charitable to him. His district is basically a more Democratic version of TX-23

How many seats are Texas Senate R's above the procedural supermajority threshold?  I think this blocking technique could be used to force the backup commission to intervene for legislative redistricting and potentially send the congressional map to federal court.  Of course the backup commission would either all R or 4R/1D if Dems take the lower house, but 4 of the 5 are statewide officials up in 2022, so it's reasonable to expect they would be more cautious about provoking backlash in their statewide elections.

GOP is at 19 of 31 seats. Legislation requires 19 to make it to the floor. So they can't lose a single seat.

However, Texas Senate rules are set forth at the beginning of each session and only require 16 votes for approval. So theoretically if they lose a seat or two they can just "go nuclear" on the procedural threshold. They already did this back in 2015, reducing the the procedural majority from 2/3rds to 3/5ths.

[Skill and Chance]

What about the State Senate?

Beto won 15/31 state senate districts but 2 of those were in 2018 and are not up in 2020. There is one seat in SW texas that was picked up in a special and should be picked up by Democrats in 2020.

Yes, Democrats left two seats on the table in 2018: the Collin County based seat and Joan Huffman’s Harris County seat that both went for Beto by decent amounts. Pete Flores (my senator) is the only one in a competitive race this year, and his seat is probably Lean D, and that’s being charitable to him. His district is basically a more Democratic version of TX-23

How many seats are Texas Senate R's above the procedural supermajority threshold?  I think this blocking technique could be used to force the backup commission to intervene for legislative redistricting and potentially send the congressional map to federal court.  Of course the backup commission would either all R or 4R/1D if Dems take the lower house, but 4 of the 5 are statewide officials up in 2022, so it's reasonable to expect they would be more cautious about provoking backlash in their statewide elections.

GOP is at 19 of 31 seats. Legislation requires 19 to make it to the floor. So they can't lose a single seat.

However, Texas Senate rules are set forth at the beginning of each session and only require 16 votes for approval. So theoretically if they lose a seat or two they can just "go nuclear" on the procedural threshold. They already did this back in 2015, reducing the the procedural majority from 2/3rds to 3/5ths.

Ah, so it's a paper tiger and not something required by the state constitution.

[Virginiá]

How many seats are Texas Senate R's above the procedural supermajority threshold?  I think this blocking technique could be used to force the backup commission to intervene for legislative redistricting and potentially send the congressional map to federal court.  Of course the backup commission would either all R or 4R/1D if Dems take the lower house, but 4 of the 5 are statewide officials up in 2022, so it's reasonable to expect they would be more cautious about provoking backlash in their statewide elections.

You'd think so, but redistricting is such a opaque and confusing process to most voters that the only people that generally get riled up by it are activists or other high-information, politically aware people. It never seems to actually hurt politicians, even if it garners significant support in the form of ballot initiatives.

I guess, at best, it might rile up the opposition, but one could argue that if it does, it's hardly worth mentioning given how Republicans performed in the Obama years.