NY Times's final 1976 Election battleground map

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.nytimes.com/1976/11/01/archives/presidential-race-called-very-close-on-eve-of-the-vote-50state.html

Carter 222
Ford 198

Key :

60%= Solid
30%= Lean


So pretty surprised by this , I thought Ford winning Virginia and coming close in Mississippi would be a surprise but apparently they believed he would win Virginia , thought he would win Lousiana and thought Mississppi tiled towards him

Senators John C. Stennis and James O. Eastland, campaigning for a national Democrat for the first time in decades, are trying to pull Mississippi out for Mr. Carter. There has been a battle of surrogates, with Strom Thurmond the heavy hitter for Mr. Ford, George C. Wallace the star for Mr. Carter. If the black vote, notoriously undependable here, fails to turn out at least 160,000 ballots, Mr. Carter will probably fall short, according to seasoned observers. Tossup.

they were hilariously wrong about this though:

A newspaper poll by the Watertown Public Opinion last Wednesday showed Mr. Ford with 49 percent, Mr. Carter with 48 and with Mr. Carter carrying the farm areas. The state has not gone Democratic for the last 36 years. Toss‐up.

um LBJ won the state in 1964

[Podgy the Bear]

1976 was the first election that I really followed from start to finish, and it's amazing how the electoral landscape has changed in 44 years.  With a few exceptions, most states were decided within 6-8 points, the NYT survey showed how difficult it was to assess the race (and in the end they called a lot of states incorrectly).

During the campaign, Carter was always running ahead in the electoral vote and he had good leads in states like PA, TX, and IL (and was always close in CA), but he really slid in the last few weeks.

Some other points:

--The black vote did show up in the South--which helped Carter win LA and MS and turn other Southern states into relative routs.  I remember both states were a struggle--especially LA because several Louisiana Democrats had endorsed Ford (including Edwin Edwards's wife).
--The suburban NYC vote was strongly Republican then.  Which made New York State close (because of Long Island) and caused Connecticut and New Jersey to go Republican.
--There was real concern about a Eugene McCarthy effect.  I remember that he was running at 5-6 points in some polls.  Fortunately for Carter, he dropped off considerably and ended up costing Oregon (and no other states).

[OSR stands with Israel]

1976 was the first election that I really followed from start to finish, and it's amazing how the electoral landscape has changed in 44 years.  With a few exceptions, most states were decided within 6-8 points, the NYT survey showed how difficult it was to assess the race (and in the end they called a lot of states incorrectly).

During the campaign, Carter was always running ahead in the electoral vote and he had good leads in states like PA, TX, and IL (and was always close in CA), but he really slid in the last few weeks.

Some other points:

--The black vote did show up in the South--which helped Carter win LA and MS and turn other Southern states into relative routs.  I remember both states were a struggle--especially LA because several Louisiana Democrats had endorsed Ford (including Edwin Edwards's wife).
--The suburban NYC vote was strongly Republican then.  Which made New York State close (because of Long Island) and caused Connecticut and New Jersey to go Republican.
--There was real concern about a Eugene McCarthy effect.  I remember that he was running at 5-6 points in some polls.  Fortunately for Carter, he dropped off considerably and ended up costing Oregon (and no other states).

Even then it’s stunning how despite the vast majority of states being decided in single digits , how right The NY Times were . They were just wrong about OR , WI , LA


Even close states like CA and OH.


Also OR wow it basically seems almost  identical to what happened in 2000 with McCarthy being Nader except Washington county being more republican in 1976 gave Ford the edge

[El Betico]

Only 14 States were considered totally safe( 7 for each party).

[El Betico]

Any reason for Carter strenght, or maybe Ford weakness, in the Dakotas? The South was effectively a toss up, but even in the North Carter lost by only 5 or 6 points, if I am recalling well.