Vosem
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Posts: 15,635
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: March 03, 2020, 11:23:52 AM » |
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Polling in 1980 oscillated between a narrow Carter win and a Reagan landslide (much as polling in 2016 oscillated between a narrow Trump win and a Clinton landslide, and for the same reason: Carter had a huge EV advantage). Polling in 2008 was quite consistent after the financial crisis that the Republicans could not win (though it is forgotten that the race was quite close beforehand), and polling in 1992 essentially never saw Bush in a winning position again after around the start of summer, with the initial Perot dropout giving way to a lasting lead for Clinton.
1980 by far is what the polls suggest, and 1992 as the least winnable, though I think I agree that's counter-intuitive.
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