Malaysia political crisis

[jaichind]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/29/malaysia-palace-says-muhyiddin-yassin-to-be-sworn-in-as-next-pm.html

"Malaysia’s Muhyiddin named PM in shock that sidelines old rivals"

In a series of lighting moves, Muhyiddin first ousted Mahathir as Chairman of PPBM, taking over the post himself, and as a result unfed PPBM behind him, then he secured the Sarawak  based GPS bloc with their 18 MP support despite the GPS assertion that they will not serve in a coalition with PAS, and then he reconfirmed support of UMNO-PAS to gain a majority.  Then the King appointed Muhyiddin as the new PM.

It seems that the Sabah based Warisan bloc continued to be support Mahathir but now might have to back Muhyiddin to make sure they do not lose out in their share of the spoils.

So in the end the  Mahathir-Anwar battle ends in a defeat for both as Muhyiddin betrayed his mentor  Mahathir to capture the thrown and the old political master  Mahathir  is defeated.

I would if this could provoke a third  Mahathir-Anwar alliance to face off against this new ruling bloc. 

I still think that UMNO-PAS is making a mistake here by going for short term goals.  The should have pushed for a mid-term election which they are sure to win.  A election in 2023 where they are part of a coalition created through betrayal and hard to work on the ground would put the PH in a much stronger position than a 2020 election where PH faced an electorate was a failed coalition.

In this new PPBM-UMNO-PAS coalition the political battles will not end.  All three blocs have overlapping bases of support and would be fighting each other on the ground to gain the edge in the upcoming 2023 elections.  I suspect in the end the real winner would be PAS that can use being in the ruling bloc to gain on the ground and eat into the PPBM and UMNO bases.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/malaysia-mahathir-numbers-return-pm-200229015357682.html

"Malaysia's Mahathir secures Anwar's support to return as PM"

It seems that Muhyiddin impending victory did push  Mahathir and Anwar back together again.  What is really outstanding now is how much support Mahathir still have with PPBM MPs which he co-founded with Muhyiddin. 

With Muhyiddin as PM it is clear that large majority if not all of PPBM MPs back Muhyiddin.  But now Mahathir could potentially rally PH (92) and the Warisan bloc (10) behind him so it is the matter of trying to get enough of the 36 PPBM MPs to defect back to Mahathir.  One of the PKR rebels (the one that is Sabah) did not join PPBM and I suspect he might go back to PKR or join Warisan while the one pro-PPBM ex-UMNO MP is most likely to be in the Mahathir camp.

Still  Muhyiddin as PM now has the resources to buy off everyone in his corner including the Sarawak  based GPS bloc and the PPBM caucus.

[jaichind]

Mahathir claims he has the support of 114 MPs out of 222 for a majority.  His son a MP and CM of Kedah Mukhriz Mahathir's facebook page claims 6 PPBM MP backing Mahathir.  I am trying to do the math to see how Mahathir gets to 114.

First we have PH with 92.  Then there is 10 from Warisan-UKPO.  Also one can try to count 1 PKR rebel that seems to not have joined PPBM and seems to have gone back to PH.  Also a ex-UNMO pro-PPBM independent is close to  Mahathir can be counted to be in Mahathir's corner.  Also today 1 SUPP MP which is part of Sarawak based GPS alliance seems to have defected to PKR.  That should add up to 111 out of 222.  As for the other 3 I guess perhaps one can count the PRS rebel that joined PSB.  But after getting to 112 I do not see where the other 2 comes from.  The Sabah based GBS will be against Mahathir due to Warisan being their main enemy.  I guess the only way are 2 more yet unnamed UMNO rebel ?

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin also claims a list of 114 MP.  Now we will move into list vs list.  I think the PM position now is a poison chalice.  The winning bloc will get crushed in the 2023 election.

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin sworn in as PM.  Mahathir list of 114 would not stand up to the power of incumbency and the ablity to buy MPs with patronage so while Mahathir is not going down without a fight all signs are that Muhyiddin will win the fight.

Mahathir it seems will resume his role as head of PH and be the Leader of the Opposition.  So now we will have the spectacle of the PM and the LOP from the same party, PPBM.  There will be a continued battle between Muhyiddin and Mahathir as to who is the Chairman of PPBM which  Muhyiddin is likely to win and  Mahathir most likely leading a small pro-Mahathir faction of PPBM out and form a rump party as a part of PH.

Mahathir speaks about betrayal of  Muhyiddin and PKR rebels but he must know the core issue is that the large representation of Chinese and Indians in the PH government is allowing UMNO-PAS to consolidate the Malay vote which would steamroll PH in the next election.  Muhyiddin and PKR rebels saw their electoral prospects dim and acted to get themselves in an bloc that will represent Malay domination.  To do so they had to dump DAP and Anwar one way or another. 

PH;s mistake is to underestimate the Malay concern about domination by the Chinese who already dominate Malaysia economically and is viewed as capturing political power with the PH government.  PH should have sidelined most Chinese and Indian politicians part of the PH interment and projected a more Malay-dominated government,   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is Mahathir's game? What is his likely strategy here, guiding his decisions?

[jaichind]

What is Mahathir's game? What is his likely strategy here, guiding his decisions?

On paper he will try for a VONC after the parliament reconvenes.  But the Muhyiddin  camp is trying delaying that as long as possible to try to buy over pro-Mahathir MPs.  This is a game that Muhyiddin will win.  But Mahathir's next step would be to wait for the contradictions of a PPBM UMNO PAS to break up the current government.  To deflect  Mahathir's accusation that the current government is merely a return to the old corrupt regime Muhyiddin vowed that his cabinet would be corruption free.  But that might rule out a lot of UMNO kingpins that accepted Muhyiddin just to get back into power.  That this dynamic might lead to a blowup would the hope the Mahathir /PH camp have to hope for now.

[jaichind]

Muhyiddin delays the next sitting of parliament from March 9 until May, giving him 2 months to try to round up a workable majority via what I have to assume would be $$$ and patronage.

[Joseph Cao]

What is Mahathir's game? What is his likely strategy here, guiding his decisions?

At this stage? Mahathir has been extremely vocal about not working with UMNO or PAS under any circumstances and will very likely remain "in PH", to the extent that that still means anything. On the federal level the next major event will be the May 18 Parliament session. Barring a change of mind by the King or Muhiyiddin or a rogue MP in the ruling coalition, nothing significant is likely to happen before then. I am doubtful that Mahathir or anyone else in Pakatan can manage to get a majority of MPs on that date, whatever they claim. So we can only wait for an election, which presumably is won if and only if PH has gotten their act together and they manage to collect enough Malay support and, as jaichind mentions, UMNO/PAS/PPBM are limping into election day and/or the whiff of scandal around UMNO drags them down again.

I suspect part of the reason Mahathir hasn’t yet left PPBM is that it was his baby, figuratively, and local chapters of PPBM are splintering from the federal Muhiyiddin leadership in states like Kedah and Melaka, and there are schisms within these schisms relating to which of the two PPBM figureheads each individual assemblyman is more loyal to. Concern for his party, although it doesn’t strike me as the sort of overriding factor he is truly driven by, is likely a factor in his decisions.

[Joseph Cao]

I may add that this new government is all but certain to further polarise Malaysia along racial and urban/rural lines. The Pakatan camp and its rank-and-file, now reduced to its most liberal and multiracial constituents, already sees this (with justification) as a coup. The loose UMNO–PAS–PPBM alliance and its rank-and-file are essentially the purest possible distillation of rural Malays and will unquestionably pursue policies that reflect this. The next general election probably starts out as a tug of war between the natural electoral advantage the rural-Malay coalition will have and the turnout differential that is likely to resolve in favour of PH. The racial and political makeup of the new young voters produced by the voting-age bill will also be a major determining factor.

[Joseph Cao]

PH;s mistake is to underestimate the Malay concern about domination by the Chinese who already dominate Malaysia economically and is viewed as capturing political power with the PH government.  PH should have sidelined most Chinese and Indian politicians part of the PH interment and projected a more Malay-dominated government,   

Yes, PH was too naïve about this and the racially polarising appointments of Lim Guan Eng and others were no doubt mostly a product of the heady post-victory atmosphere, but I am very very very skeptical of the idea that the United Malays "DAP is our sworn enemy" National Organisation and the "Chinese ethnostate" fearmongerers in PAS would be any less suspicious of a coalition that already contained DAP if it excluded Chinese and Indians from major government positions.
The UMNO-led Malay-dominated government after 2013 had no issues with painting a picture of the Chinese controlling everything behind the scenes. It certainly isn’t predicated on how much political power the minorities are perceived to hold.

[jaichind]

PPBM is mostly split along regional lines.  In Kedah the Mahathir clan are clearly in control with Mahathir's son continuing as CM as part of the PPBM-PH alliance.  In Jahor where Muhyiddin is from (he was CM a while back) PPBM dumped PH and formed a government with UMNO-PAS.  In Malacca, PPBM broke with PH and formed a government with UMNO-PAS but that triggered a PKR MLA and a  DAP MLA   to defect to the new government.  UMNO-PAS then promptly dumped PPBM and formed a government on its own.

It is said that Muhyiddin might make  PKR rebel leader Azmin Ali DPM but it is also said that UMNO leader Hamidi is looking to gain that post.  It is also said that Muhyiddin is looking to meet with Mahathir to try to reunited PPBM and will offer Mahathir's son  Mukhriz Mahathir the DPM role.  At this stage the number of bribes Muhyiddin has to pay out to keep his government afloat might exceed the resources and spoils he has at his disposal.  On the other hand Muhyiddin's PPBM faction will have the most to lose in an mid-term election so he will stop at nothing to keep his government going as long as possible.

[jaichind]

With the virus outbreak everything is pretty much frozen politically as the government tries to work to prevent a major outbreak.  Malaysia's warm weather will work in its favor and it seems that most of those infected were from a large Islamic gathering back in Feb.  I think a series of reasonable steps from the government plus the warm weather should prevent a major disaster.  The impact on the economy will clearly be significant though.   I sort of doubt that  the new  Muhyiddin  regime will be blamed.

 In the meantime  Muhyiddin  is still trying to work behind the scenes to rope in Mahathir to support him.  The PH camp have since move back to backing Anwar as its PM candidate in the next election whenever that ends up being.

[jaichind]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j38G7pfoNIA

PM Muhyiddin addresses the nation.  His main message is "You didn’t vote for us, but we care about you"  Which does admit that his government was created by backroom deals and not through the ballot box.

[jaichind]

The Speaker of the Malaysian Parliament who has a AMANAH background, accepted the Mahathir motion of no-confidence for the May 18th 1 day sitting.  So now the battle is on for  Muhyiddin  to survive.    Ahead of the vote it seems that  Mahathir have renewed his alliance with Anwar after some period a few weeks ago when it seems they were about to have another falling out.  On paper  Muhyiddin  should have had enough time to buy his way to a majority.  But there seems to be anger within UNMO-PAS that they are not getting their share of power and if they do not get what they want they could turn on Muhyiddin in the trust vote since in a snap election UNMO-PAS is likely to win and Muhyiddin's faction of PPBM is sure to be wiped out.   Muhyiddin  could counter by running back to re-join PH.  So lots of games to be played in the upcoming week.

[Joseph Cao]

The Speaker of the Malaysian Parliament who has a AMANAH background, accepted the Mahathir motion of no-confidence for the May 18th 1 day sitting.  So now the battle is on for  Muhyiddin  to survive.    Ahead of the vote it seems that  Mahathir have renewed his alliance with Anwar after some period a few weeks ago when it seems they were about to have another falling out.  On paper  Muhyiddin  should have had enough time to buy his way to a majority.  But there seems to be anger within UNMO-PAS that they are not getting their share of power and if they do not get what they want they could turn on Muhyiddin in the trust vote since in a snap election UNMO-PAS is likely to win and Muhyiddin's faction of PPBM is sure to be wiped out.   Muhyiddin  could counter by running back to re-join PH. So lots of games to be played in the upcoming week.

Some of this seems unlikely to happen. Ahead of the sitting on the 18th, BN (i.e. UMNO plus token MCA, MIC, and PBRS minority reps) has pledged its undivided support for Muhiyiddin in the event of a no-confidence motion, and PAS as a formal coalition partner is likely to go along with them. Together with the effective shunning of the Mahathir faction within Muhiyiddin's PPBM (Mahathir's son Mukhriz lost power in the northern state of Kedah yesterday after a no-confidence vote backed by the state opposition PAS together with PPBM and PKR reps who defected to PN) and the pro-Muhiyiddin cohesion that that implies, the Prime Minister will at least have the numbers to survive a no-confidence vote.

Moreover, Muhiyiddin won't threaten to rejoin Pakatan – he would essentially be eliminated from consideration for a leadership position within PH due to Anwar continuing to pull his weight, and frankly would be lucky to be relegated to his original position now that he's seen as effectively backstabbing both the Mahathir and Anwar factions and Pakatan as a whole. More to the point, Pakatan would not accept him. Much of the Pakatan base is still suspicious of figures like Tian Chua, a PKR leader considered to be part of Azmin Ali's camp who attempted to mend divisions within his party but was not among the Azmin-led PKR rebels who defected to the other side; despite his disavowal of Azmin, he has come under fire for his previous support and there is some talk of running formerly Azmin-aligned people like him out of PKR leadership. Pakatan is at present highly distrustful of anyone with current or former allegiances to non-Pakatan parties or coalitions, and that is reflected in their weak position in the numbers game for control of Parliament.

[jaichind]

Looks like the May 18th VONC will be delayed as PM Muhyiddin indicated that other issues related to virus crisis had priority in this one day session.  As pointed out it does not matter anyway as recent PPBM-UNMO-PAS conflict seems to be contained as other Azmin Ali PKR faction members seems to continue their drift toward the PPBM-UNMO-PAS bloc.

[Joseph Cao]

Literally nothing of note happened in the parliamentary session since it was limited to two hours, MPs were not permitted to raise questions or debate, and the only thing on the agenda was the King's speech followed by an immediate adjournment of parliament.

While this is technically a parliamentary sitting as required by law, it has not settled anything. The seating arrangement for today's sitting does appear to indicate that there are 114 out of 222 MPs aligned with the government, which is only two more than needed for an outright majority. It goes without saying that this is the thinnest parliamentary margin – if we can call it that, since there has not actually been a vote to determine who holds the majority – in Malaysian history.

(Coincidentally, there are two major government-aligned MPs currently under indictment for corruption charges: former PM Najib Razak and current UMNO party leader Zahid Hamidi. If their charges are not dropped and they are indicted and forced to resign their seats, the majority could very well dissolve. In other news, a corruption charge against Najib's son Riza Aziz resulted in a highly questionable plea deal and settlement for the defendant yesterday by the current Muhiyiddin–appointed Attorney General.)

[jaichind]

I am confused on why Muhiyiddin does not just hold a VOC just to get it over with since he does have a thin majority and should win.  One reason could be the political capital he would have to pay UMNO and PAS to vote his way might be fairly high and he rather just delay paying.  Another reason could be while it looks bad for him to run a government without proving it has a majority having Mahathir run around trying to pull down the government in the middle of crisis makes him and PH look even worse.   

[jaichind]

PPBM expels Mahathir and his faction from the party.  Mahathir  claims that he is still the chairman of PPBM and that PM Muhyiddin  should be the one facing being sacked.  This move pretty much rules out some sort of rapprochement between   Mahathir and Muhyiddin and will weaken the hand of both factions within their respective alliances. 

[Joseph Cao]

PPBM expels Mahathir and his faction from the party.  Mahathir  claims that he is still the chairman of PPBM and that PM Muhyiddin should be the one facing being sacked.  This move pretty much rules out some sort of rapprochement between Mahathir and Muhyiddin and will weaken the hand of both factions within their respective alliances. 

Yeah, this is all a mess – but any kind of agreement between Mahathir and Muhyiddin was never going to happen. Mahathir’s motivations are still a black box but he has been very vocal about not working with the “kleptocrats” of UMNO. His deliberate move to the opposition bench on the 18th (along with the others expelled from the party) is a pretty clear sign that while they were at that time still nominally part of PPBM, they were acting as a separate party of their own. Still, Mahathir and the four others who are clearly loyal to him will need to find a space for themselves between now and the next general election, since PPBM has officially suspended them and Pakatan Harapan is wary of accepting them (they are clearly trying to rally behind Anwar now). Probably they will attempt to enter into some form of loose agreement with PH. We’ll wait for all the dust to settle, but as an observer on the ground this strikes me as mostly political white noise that won’t meaningfully affect the composition of Parliament.

[jaichind]

I am still confused on why UMNO-PAS does not just pull the plug on this Muhyiddin government and go for early elections.  This recent political battle has further tainted Anwar as someone that might be under the control of DAP and the Chinese which in turn will further consolidate the Malay vote behind UMNO-PAS.  PH knows this so in an election there will be splits within PH trying to project a different face for PH (Mahathir or someone else).  UNMO-PAS will be running against a divided PH plus a rump PPBM and easily win a majority if not a 2/3 majority.  Dragging this out merely associates them with any mistakes  Muhyiddin might make as PM and actually could reduce their chances of a landslide victory.

[Joseph Cao]

I am still confused on why UMNO-PAS does not just pull the plug on this Muhyiddin government and go for early elections.  This recent political battle has further tainted Anwar as someone that might be under the control of DAP and the Chinese which in turn will further consolidate the Malay vote behind UMNO-PAS.  PH knows this so in an election there will be splits within PH trying to project a different face for PH (Mahathir or someone else).  UNMO-PAS will be running against a divided PH plus a rump PPBM and easily win a majority if not a 2/3 majority.  Dragging this out merely associates them with any mistakes Muhyiddin might make as PM and actually could reduce their chances of a landslide victory.

I don't deny that's a possible course of action for UMNO–PAS, which after all has a united leadership and voting base in comparison to Pakatan (divided leadership) and PPBM (almost no real base). But looking at the actual seats, this strategy isn't good for UMNO–PAS. The most marginal seats that PH won in the last general election were disproportionately seats that were already held by UMNO or PAS incumbents that left their parties for PPBM and AMANAH respectively. If UMNO–PAS decided to completely cut ties with PPBM they would still need to fight for the PPBM-held seats; Muhyiddin is still PM and in a position, as are most of his PPBM ministers, to funnel cash into these constituencies to shore up PPBM's support base as much as possible. The remaining PH seats are largely safe for their incumbents, excepting a number of special cases where the Pakatan candidate won narrowly in a three-cornered fight. UMNO and PAS know they don't have enough seats of their own to win an outright majority, and while there is some enthusiasm on their side I think that in a three-way battle between PH, UMNO–PAS, and PPBM the side with the highest base of enthusiasm will be PH, which means UMNO–PAS likely doesn't have much room to improve on their current numbers.

Moreover, the optics of such an action would be very bad and harm the UMNO–PAS image even further. Bear in mind that UMNO is still very much perceived as the party of Najib and Zahid Hamidi, and that this perception contributed heavily to their defeat two years ago. The usual attacks against DAP and the "Chinese menace" are not going to be as salient as they would have been in a scenario where PH was still the incumbent government; nor will they play well outside of rural seats that are mostly already held by UMNO–PAS or PPBM incumbents who defected from (then later returned to) UMNO–PAS. If they were to suddenly about-face their previous declarations of support for Muhyiddin and force a general election, at a time when Malaysia is still reeling from the coronavirus crisis, it would tarnish their image even further as the only ones who consistently focused on playing politics throughout a four-month public health crisis. The Malay vote at this time will be most concerned with their livelihoods and economic position, and far from being consolidated behind UMNO–PAS, is likely to be split among the two halves of the Malay coalition as neither post-2018 UMNO–PAS nor PPBM has shown a coherent economic policy aside from "throw money at voters", which the current government hasn't even managed to do properly.

[jaichind]

My current count of political alignments in the Parliament

Ruling bloc
PPBM (Muhyiddin faction)   32
BN                                   42
PAS                                 18
GPS                                 18 (old BN bloc in Sarawak)
GBS                                  3 (old BN and anti-WARISAN bloc in Sabah)
Total                              113

Opposition
PH                                  92
PPBM(Mathahir faction)      5
WARISAN bloc                 10 (Sabah based, pro-Mathahir)
PSB                                  2 (Sarawak based old BN splinter, pro-Mathahir)
Total                             109

There were some confusion on if PSB backed Muhyiddin instead during the 1 hour sitting of Parliament but the 2 PSB MPs have clarified their pro-opposition position.

The main Muhyiddin avenue of expanding their majority seems to be to target PSB and the WARISAN bloc.  The WARISAN bloc is unlikely to join up since the pro-ruling bloc GBS will be their main opponent in the next Sabah election.  

Likewise the opposition is hoping to rope in GPS to join their side to bring down the Muhyiddin  government.  That is unlikely to work as tin the next  Sarawak election GPS will be facing PH (mostly PKR-DAP) as their main opponent.   The only hope the opposition has is to be clear about who will be PM (Mathahir or Anwar or someone else), stay united on that consensus and then lure disgruntled ruling bloc MPs (mostly from hidden pro-Mathahir MPs within the PPBM (Muhyiddin faction) to come with the promise of office and power sharing.

As things stand the compulsion of electoral competition makes shifting of the battle lines fairly unlikely on the short run.  

 

[jaichind]

What is also interesting about the PPBM (Muhyiddin faction)  is that it is made up mostly of defectors.  Out of the 32 MPs in PPBM (Muhyiddin faction) only 7 (including Muhyiddin himself) were elected in 2018 on the PPBM ticket with 5 of the 13 elected in 2018 going with the Mathahir faction (including Mathahir and his son.)  10 MPs were elected in 2018 as PKR and were part of the Azmin Ali faction that split out to join PPBM.  15 MPs were defectors from UMNO.