Malaysia political crisis

[PSOL]

F•••ing unbelievable how prone to backstabbing and opportunism Malaysian politicians engage in. How do they even build relationships with their constituents, much less do their jobs constructively to enrich themselves, with such instability?

[_.]

F•••ing unbelievable how prone to backstabbing and opportunism Malaysian politicians engage in. How do they even build relationships with their constituents, much less do their jobs constructively to enrich themselves, with such instability?

That isn't a typical priority of politicians in the developing world lol.

The cycle actually goes consolidate power, loot as much as you can (repeat cycle as needed) then flee off to London to live with the elite. Instability is a smaller factor than you think it might be. In fact for these guys it can bring opportunity.

Scum of the Earth

[jaichind]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/call-for-removal-of-pm-muhyiddin-triggers-civil-war-in-umno

"Call for removal of PM Muhyiddin triggers 'civil war' in Umno"

Looks like UMNO is split down the middle on supporting Muhyiddin.  Out of the 38 UMNO MPs, 15 MP seems to back UMNO leader Zahid position of opposing Muhyiddin while 23 UMNP MPs seems to be breaking ranks and backing Muhyiddin.  Of course 15 MPs are more than enough for Muhyiddin to lose a VONC in Sept so he has his work cut out for himself to lure some of these 15 UMNO MPs back and get other defections from the PH bloc.

I think core issue for UMNO is if there should be an alliance with PPBM and PAS in the next election.  Some UMNO MPs  think they can win without an alliance with PPBM and PAS.  Others are fearful that if PAS runs in their district they will lose and with PAS backing Muhyiddin see backing Muhyiddin as a way to keep the PAS away from their district next election.  At the strategic level UMNO is divided on if an alliance with PPBM-PAS is necessary for them to win the next election.   Another way to look at it is who is UMNO's long term enemy? Is it PH whose vote base is separate from that of UMNO but having a rival ideology or is it PPBM-PAS who might be ideologically close to UMNO but are looking to eat up UMNO's vote base. 

[jaichind]

https://www.sinarharian.com.my/article/154685/BERITA/Politik/Nik-Nazmi-dakwa-ditawar-RM30-juta-untuk-sokong-kerajaan-PN

PHK sources say that the price the ruling bloc is willing to pay for 1 MP to defect has risen from $4.5 million to around $7.5 million.  Not sure if I trust the source that it would make sense for  Muhyiddin bloc to try to recruit from PH alliance to make up the numbers.

[jaichind]

https://amp.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3145096/malaysian-prime-minister-muhyiddin-yassin-poised-resign-monday

"Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin poised to resign on Monday, ending political crisis, minister says"

Problem no other person can get a majority either and COVID-19 surge means early elections are no possible until next year. 

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3145172/malaysias-political-crisis-pm-muhyiddin-yassin-finally-quits

Muhyiddin resigns but made caretaker PM.  I think he is gambling on the fact that as long as his PPBM stays loyal, no majority could be found between UMNO, PAs and PH.  In which case he will still be in charge when elections finally come next year with him and his PPBM having access to the resources of the government to run the election.  Not sure this can be sustained that long but he has nothing to lose.

[Joseph Cao]

Oh yeah, things are up [inks] creek right now. There are more details than that but those will have to wait for a later post.

[Logical]

UMNO's Sabri has been appointed PM.

[jaichind]

UMNO's Sabri has been appointed PM.

He was DPM under Muhyiddin and solidly in the the pro-Muhyiddin camp of UMNO.  I guess he was the compromise candate to get PPBM and the anti-Muhyiddin faction of UMNO to come together again.   This leaves seat sharing conflict between UMNO PAS and PPBM unresolved.  In the meantime it seems UMNO good cop bad cop Muhyiddin into giving up the PM seat to UMNO.

[jaichind]

Sabri made a deal with PH where he his budget will pass and making sure the election will be mid 2022 at the earliest in return for some reforms. Muhyiddin offered the same deal but was turned down by PH.  This is 寧贈友邦，不予家奴 (I rather give to an outsider and not give to a internal servant)  Muhyiddin was a PH rebel and PH rather deal with UMNO than a PH traitor. 

[PSOL]

What is the composition of the current government.

[jaichind]

What is the composition of the current government.

Same as the Muhyiddin coalition.  UMNO PAS PPBM (Muhyiddin faction of PPBM + PKR rAzmin faction) GRS (Sabah) GPS (Sarawak) which is 120 seats vs 114 for PH plus pro-Mahathir parties.

[jaichind]

Melaka state snap election to be held Nov 20th.   

In the last Melaka state election held in 2018 PH edged out BN 15-13.  Then in 2020 after PPBM and some PKR rebels defected to form an alliance with BN (mirroring the shift in national politics) a BN government was formed.  A few months ago this arrangement collapsed when PPBM pulled out of the BN government. 

The election will be BN (UMNO) vs PH (DAP-PRK-AMANAH) vs PN (PPBM-PAS)

I suspect PH will win the plurality of votes but BN will win a plurality of seats.

What is cynical about this setup is UMNO PAS and PPBM continue to have an alliance at the national level but at each other's throats in this sstate election

[Joseph Cao]

Melaka state elections have passed – thumping win for UMNO against PN and PH.

Sarawak state elections have passed – even bigger blowout for the government-aligned GPS.

Now Johor state elections have been called; no date has been set yet. The given rationale is the difficulty that the UMNO-led state government has in navigating their very narrow majority. This might be a clown car, even more so than Melaka and Sarawak, because unlike those two Johor is home to a number of political heavyweights including our old friend Muhyiddin. Contesting parties, aside from UMNO, PAS, PN, and the Pakatan components, are likely to include the motley crew of Pejuang (the Mahathir party), MUDA (the YOUTH party), and WARISAN, all of whom are apparently in talks to contest alongside Pakatan under a common banner. The fratricide between UMNO-PAS-PN continues apace even though UMNO has been winning lopsidedly thus far.

[jaichind]

Najib Razak conviction upheld by courts.  He will now head off to prison.   Great news for PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob.  Once he takes over UMNO organizations in party elections later in the fall I expect him to call elections. 

[Joseph Cao]

And he has applied for a royal pardon within the 14-day stipulated period, meaning he remains as an MP conditional on the pardon being granted.

The king is undoubtedly aware that there are still four cases pending against Najib related to the one he just got locked up for, so even if he is pardoned now there is a very strong chance of it becoming a political turkey. A couple of these are related to the decision that also recently put his wife behind bars for twenty years but everyone including Najib himself recognizes her as a political albatross so no pardon forthcoming for her most likely.

[Joseph Cao]

As an aside there are some turf wars going on in Negeri Sembilan over the parliamentary seats for the upcoming GE15. Apparently UMNO deputy and former chief minister Mohamad Hasan wants to contest Rembau, the seat that covers his current state assembly seat (which he is still contesting), and the UMNO wunderkid – pardon the oxymoron – Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin who currently holds that seat is willing to accommodate him.

So Khairy will have to find another seat; he could retire but there are factions in UMNO that want him to stay as strongly as the other factions would like him to step aside. Rumors are pointing to his contesting Seremban, which despite the name could easily be a real race for DAP sec-gen and former PH transport minister Anthony Loke, although one that he would probably still win. The UMNO Youth branch in Seremban has expressed support for this. Loke has said he will contest his seat no matter what happens. For his part Khairy is smart enough to realize even his golden boy status has limits in urban seats full of partisan PH voters and has therefore been asking around to see if another UMNO MP in the state might be willing to step aside for him, and he might also go ahead with the full swap and contest for Negeri Sembilan chief minister, which would definitely be a threat to the current PH government, the last one standing of their GE14 gains.

Meanwhile Anwar currently holds Port Dickson after a PKR man stepped aside for him in a by-election in 2018 but is looking at contesting elsewhere, potentially the Tambun seat in Perak which is currently held by PPBM deputy and former Perak chief minister Faizal Azumu (lol). The other seats are quieter but there are a couple of marginals that PH could easily lose on their current numbers.

[jaichind]

Tensions are rising within UMNO between pro Najib Razak and anti Najib Razak factions with UMNO PM Yaakob clearly happy with Razak in jail and he take over UMNO.   The pro Razak gang will not let go.  I can see a UMNO split before the general election. 

[Joseph Cao]

Any UMNO split that occurs, and I really strongly disagree that that is a realistic possibility, will be cosmetic at best with continued electoral cooperation. The PPBM men are happy to continue supporting their former schismate in the parliamentary arithmetic. Whether the party chairman of UMNO likes it or not his party is still his best vehicle back to power and keeping clear of prison.

[Joseph Cao]

This week's Economist has been banned in Malaysia:

https://twitter.com/NewsBFM/status/1572572938226003970

I haven't read it but skimming the contents on the web version $50 says it was the piece about SEA's monarchs.

[jaichind]

Yaakob calls snap election

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why now?

[jaichind]

Why now?

Pressure from UMNO on Yaakob I guess got too much. UMNO faction leaders want early elections because they think UMNO will win a large majority and early elections avoids  Yaakob from consolidating his power which is good for the UMNO faction leaders. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why now?

Pressure from UMNO on Yaakob I guess got too much. UMNO faction leaders want early elections because they think UMNO will win a large majority and early elections avoids  Yaakob from consolidating his power which is good for the UMNO faction leaders. 

I guess time will tell if they are right.

[jaichind]

Why now?

Pressure from UMNO on Yaakob I guess got too much. UMNO faction leaders want early elections because they think UMNO will win a large majority and early elections avoids  Yaakob from consolidating his power which is good for the UMNO faction leaders. 

I guess time will tell if they are right.

This is a big risk. Monsoon season is coming up soon so they have to rush out this election asap and get it done quick.  Any mishaps along the way will boomerang back on UMNO.