Bill Clinton in 2000
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  Bill Clinton in 2000
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Author Topic: Bill Clinton in 2000  (Read 1477 times)
Downeaster89
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« on: February 25, 2020, 08:45:28 PM »

Would Clinton have held all the States Gore won? Which States could he have won that Gore lost?
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2020, 09:44:30 AM »

Would Clinton have held all the States Gore won? Which States could he have won that Gore lost?

Clinton probably would have won in a relative landslide, when he left office he had an approval rating in the mid to high 60's and at election day 2000 in was close to that. That's about 10 points higher than his approval rating in 1996 so I don't see why he wouldn't have crushed W.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2020, 10:25:44 AM »

I don't know how to reappropriate states from 2 census's ago.

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2020, 10:35:22 AM »

Clinton would have won by a comfortable margin, but his approvals would have been lower on election day than they actually were. Outgoing presidents have usually higher numbers w/o recession because they are on the way retiring.

Electorally, it's his "worst" performance out of 3 runs 4 prez, but with a lack of presence for a major 3rd candidate, he finally clears 50%.



✓ President Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Al Gore (D-TN): 339 EVs.; 50.7%
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Defense Secretary Richard Cheney (R-WY): 199 EVs.; 47.3%
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2020, 10:37:10 AM »



Electorally, it's his "worst" performance out of 3 runs 4 prez, but with a lack of presence for a major 3rd candidate, he finally clears 50%.


Ah, so a reverse Grover Cleveland.  (his 3rd was his best electorally but worst in terms of PV percentage)
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2020, 10:43:06 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2020, 10:49:37 AM by Sir Mohamed »

I don't know how to reappropriate states from 2 census's ago.


If you scroll to the end of the calculator page, you can chose each election year since 1844. Then klick Retrieve.




Electorally, it's his "worst" performance out of 3 runs 4 prez, but with a lack of presence for a major 3rd candidate, he finally clears 50%.


Ah, so a reverse Grover Cleveland.  (his 3rd was his best electorally but worst in terms of PV percentage)

Yup, or Woodrow Wilson, who improved significantly PV-wise in 1916 compared to 1912 but lost many EVs (277 vs. 435). It was actually similar to Clinton's elections in 1992 and 1996. Ironically, both Wilson and Clinton received 49.2% in their reelection bid, up from 41.8% and 43.0%, respectively. Clinton widened his EV tally in 1996 though, unlike in this hypothetical 3rd run. Both also defeated a sitting GOP prez, who faced severe opposition from his side. And the said GOP prez was the "chosen successor" of a previous prez (TR and Reagan).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2020, 12:35:19 PM »

There’s no way Clinton wins in a landslide in 2000, this is pretty obvious revisionist history.
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2020, 02:02:56 PM »

There’s no way Clinton wins in a landslide in 2000, this is pretty obvious revisionist history.

Highly Popular President with a booming economy not winning in a landslide seems like revisionism on your part. Especially with budget hawks not being able to attack due to the deficit.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2020, 03:09:57 AM »

There’s no way Clinton wins in a landslide in 2000, this is pretty obvious revisionist history.

Highly Popular President with a booming economy not winning in a landslide seems like revisionism on your part. Especially with budget hawks not being able to attack due to the deficit.

He would have won comfortably as I said, but not a landslide. If he could have run, his popularity would have been lower than it actually was, because retiring politicians often have better numbers and are less attacked. Same was true with Obama, whom people liked more compared to 2 unpopular nominees.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2020, 04:30:51 PM »



✓ President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 318 EV. (50.36%)
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Former Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney (R-WY): 220 EV. (47.49%)
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538Electoral
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2020, 10:30:02 PM »

Above map with Missouri to Bush.

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2020, 12:42:53 AM »

Yeah, he'd still win, probably with (or around something like) the map that Sir Mohamed posted. His approval ratings were in the 60s throughout 2000, although the election surely would've been closer than '92 & '96 given that W. put up a stronger fight & ran a better campaign than either Poppy or Dole before him did.

I think Gore would decline to run with him again, though, so that he could plan for a future run of his own.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: March 30, 2020, 12:52:43 AM »

Yeah, he'd still win, probably with (or around something like) the map that Sir Mohamed posted. His approval ratings were in the 60s throughout 2000, although the election surely would've been closer than '92 & '96 given that W. put up a stronger fight & ran a better campaign than either Poppy or Dole before him did.

I think Gore would decline to run with him again, though, so that he could plan for a future run of his own.
It wouldn't be a smart move though, I think - Gore would know this. Gore being VP means less competition in a future presidential nomination contest.
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