Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump approvals are rising again, he is leading in FL, the Hunter Biden email story has been dominant the rest of the campaign, a closer election is probable

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Civiqs, 10/18

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 46/52 (-6)
Arizona: 44/54 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Maine: 35/62 (-27)
Michigan: 41/57 (-16)
Minnesota: 40/58 (-18)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 49/48 (+1)
Texas: 48/50 (-2)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/55 (-12)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

This may be my last approval/disapproval map before the election.

Trump approval 51-53%
Trump approval net 42% or less positive but under 50%
exact tie or net approval negative but under 50% white
disapproval 50-52%
disapproval 53 or 54%
disapproval 55% or higher

Trump will lose every state in red or maroon. Pink is iffy. There are no surprises in states in gray; they wiil vote as in 2016, if probably not as strongly for Trump. Disapproval means giving up hope in this President.

I hope that I am not simply speaking for myself, but Americans seem to have tired of Donald Trump and on the whole are ready for change.

Biden 291/334 70/65M and 51/55 seat majority is the range, 500,/38 60/40, 80/65M is too much disparity between 2016/2020 65/62 49/51 seats and 235/306

AK, MT and TX are gone for Biden, he wants to end carbons and carbons are in the oil states

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would love this map, but it's not gonna happen

[pbrower2a]

I would love this map, but it's not gonna happen

So would I, especially if it relates the US Senate. Senate seats in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and even Texas are more important to Democrats than are the electoral votes of those states.

 Of course there is some reverse psychology: I would prefer that Democrats thought themselves in peril of losing everything so that they be motivated to vote. This said, we must be objective. It is better for Trump supporters to know that their idol has feet of clay according to a majority of American voters and not get angry at a state when it 'fails' to recognize that Donald Trump is the greatest thing to have ever happened to American politics. I am an honest chronicle more than an advocate; either can be as easily right or wrong.

Poor approval ratings and even worse disapproval ratings got Trump to this point. Those were better proxies for the real matchups, and I see a range of possibilities from a bare Biden win to an electoral blowout.

What would a Trump win look like? States that were close in 2016 (ME, MN, NV, and NH) would still be close. We have had three two-term Presidencies in which the winner the first time won with much the same map, with no more than five states switching between the initial election and the re-election bid. That was five states for Clinton (CO, GA, and MT going from Clinton to Dole and AZ and FL going from the elder Bush to Clinton), three in 2004 (IA and NM going from Gore to Dubya and NH going from Dubya to Kerry), and two and one independent-voting district (IN, NC, and NE-02 going from Obama to Romney).

2000 was a nail-biter, and so was 2004, suggesting that even if Dubya was objectively a poor President, then the political climate did not change. Kerry thought that he had a chance in Ohio, and that would have been enough to oust Dubya... and, really, the pattern of re-election bids being like the initial election would still hold. Obama was close to losing Florida, which would have made a huge loss (56), but Obama would have still won decisively. If there was any oddity about 2012 it was that the Republicans ran as strong a challenger as any Party ever did against an above-average President. I love to compare Obama to Eisenhower, and an opponent weaker than Romney would have allowed Obama to win in the range of 360-380 electoral votes (Obama would have held North Carolina and NE-02 while losing Indiana, but picking up Arizona or Georgia). This pattern is not applicable solely to the twenty-four years between 1992 and 2016; it held for Ike in 1956 and really Reagan in 1984, with few states switching sides.

Because of COVID-19 I may have to stay home on Election Night. If this site does not break down, I will give a play-by-play with my own quirky commentary. (Should this site break down I will be operating something similar elsewhere on someone else's site, complete with a musical interlude. A hint: I will be using the overture to J S Bach's Cantata #29, which has something to do with "elections" in the kingdom of Saxony in the 18th century (and Bach is one of the few points of pride that I have about the German gentile part of my ancestry... if I could protest Nazism for the disgrace that it is by exchanging German gentile origin for something else, especially Ashkenazi Jewish, I would, which is exactly what I told a Nazi-sympathizing Holocaust denier who attacked me for being Jewish (which I am not, but I told him that I would rather be a Jew than a Nazi because Judaism would require no compromise of my ethical or cultural values). Most German-Americans have a love-hate relationship with Germany, and it's obvious what they hate about Germany. It isn't cuisine, even if German cuisine is objectively awful. German-Americans dine out often... in Chinese and Mexican restaurants. So much for that.

Here's an organ transcription:

synthesized:

There is the overture of the cantata, there is an original work for solo violin that Back reshaped into the introduction to the cantata, and there are plenty of arrangements. I would not be surprised if some German network uses this music as an introduction for its election coverage. German elections have their own mystery and drama, something I prefer remains true of American elections as well. 

One thing is certain: I am not endorsing for President someone whose ethnic heritage is half like mine and half something similar. Eternal damnation to fascism of all kinds, whatever national garb it co-opts.

One now must be at least 28 to have been around when the last incumbent President was defeated, and even that was an oddity (the elder Bush was basically a continuation of the Reagan Presidency), or 44 to have remembered Carter defeating Ford, 57 to have been around when Kennedy was assassinated... and perhaps seventy to remember the 1956 election. Incumbent Presidents have a built-in edge in getting re-elected unless they waste that edge. At this point I believe that Donald Trump has wasted that edge, and I predict that will be my conclusion as I "sign off" on "my" coverage. Fcuk COVID-19 as well as fascism in any form and any national garb.

[Torie]

I just love those dots with moving lines. That made my day. So much for the Yin. The Yang is that I hate organ music, and it would be a close call between slitting my wrists and having to listen to that intrusive cacophony all day. So the "coda" of your post careens between heaven and hell.

[pbrower2a]

There is also a version for solo piano and one for guitar. It could probably be arranged for brass band or wind ensemble. If I did synthesizer performances I would exploit all sorts of sonorities... maybe it could be arranged for string quartet?

Of course there is the canonical arrangement as the baroque (original instrument) overture to the original cantata #29.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 291 to 334 race, it's not a 413 we only have 53 M votes cast and we are gonna get 135 M there isn't gonna be that much difference between 2016/2020 65/62M v 70/65 M. Biden will need 90 Mvotes alone to get a 1964 landslide

Polls are for poll watching, that's why I won't watch the news except blog until Election day


What happened to all those 21 yr olds chanting I can't breath, during Floyd protests skateboarding in the park. BLM isn't what we saw during ,60s or Hippies Movt during Vietnam

A TX poll just came out showing Trump leading

[Rep Jessica]

Trump Job Approval:
Approve 45%
Disapprove 53%

@MorningConsult
/@politico
, RV, 10/23-25
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/202

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker (last one before the election!), Oct. 25-27, 1500 RV including 1365 LV

RV:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+4)

Strongly approve 31 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

Biden 51 (+4), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB: D 49 (+2), R 39 (-1)


LV:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 51 (+3) (I believe this is a record high strong disapproval for Trump in this poll)

Biden 54 (+2), Trump 43 (nc)

GCB: D 52 (+2), R 42 (-1)


With the caveat that it's just one poll, it looks like late deciders are breaking toward Biden.

[pbrower2a]

Oct. 20-25

MI (789 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

SEN: 52-46 Peters

Trump approval: 46/52 (-6)

WI (809 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 57%
Trump 40%

Trump approval: 41/58 (-17)

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a52020StateBattlegrounds-MIWI.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Oct. 23-27, 1302 adults including 1110 RV and 825 LV


Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+1)

Biden 48 (+2), Trump 36 (-1)


RV:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 39 (+1)


LV:

Biden 52 (+1), Trump 42 (nc)


Trump is going the wrong way in the trackers with time running out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's finally over, the Trump Prez is over, there will be a lame duck R majority in Senate and WH, that's it.


Hurrah, Hurrah

[LimoLiberal]

46% approval for Trump in Gallup's last poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523340-americans-satisfaction-with-countrys-direction-rises-ahead-of-election?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

One of the highest ratings he's received.

And more surveyed Americans say they approve of the way the U.S. is headed.

[BudgieForce]

46% approval for Trump in Gallup's last poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523340-americans-satisfaction-with-countrys-direction-rises-ahead-of-election?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

One of the highest ratings he's received.

And more surveyed Americans say they approve of the way the U.S. is headed.

If you read your link you'd see that it says that Trump's approval rating is 44/55 among Likely Voters.

[Beet]

46% approval for Trump in Gallup's last poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523340-americans-satisfaction-with-countrys-direction-rises-ahead-of-election?__twitter_impression=true&__twitter_impression=true

One of the highest ratings he's received.

And more surveyed Americans say they approve of the way the U.S. is headed.

Based on the crosstabs, it seems this is because Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have realized the "correct" answer is to say we are headed in the right direction, and that they approve. Democrats did the same thing for Obama in 2012.

[BudgieForce]

Side note: I've contacted RCP about this before but never get a response. The criteria for which number they place in their average seems to change. In this case, they've put the Gallup "Adults" number into their aggregate, but there is a "LV" number which should take priority. I've noticed they'll do this with Emerson aswell, sometimes including the leaner number, sometimes just using the topline.

[Devout Centrist]

I'll let President Romney know that the 'Gallup' is projecting a Trump win ASAP

[pbrower2a]

44% approval for the President is fully inadequate for winning nationwide in either the popular vote or the Electoral College (the former is irrelevant and the latter is definitive).

This is not statistical, but some indications are that

VLADIMIR PUTIN

has already prepared for the defeat of his "best American pupil".

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker (released early this week to be in time for the election), Oct. 31-Nov. 2, 1500 RV including 1363 LV

RV:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 32 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 49 (-1)

Biden 49 (-2), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB: D 48 (nc), R 39 (nc)


LV:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 32 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 50 (-1)

Biden 53 (-1), Trump 43 (nc)

GCB: D 52 (nc), R 42 (nc)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not news that Biden may still win, but it's not a landslide

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They tried to tell you guys Trump wasn't at 44 percent approvals Trump was near 50 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Civiqs, 10/18

National: 41/56 (-15)

Alaska: 46/52 (-6)
Arizona: 44/54 (-10)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 45/53 (-8)
Georgia: 45/52 (-7)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Maine: 35/62 (-27)
Michigan: 41/57 (-16)
Minnesota: 40/58 (-18)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 40/56 (-16)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 44/54 (-10)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 42/55 (-13)
South Carolina: 49/48 (+1)
Texas: 48/50 (-2)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/55 (-12)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

This may be my last approval/disapproval map before the election.

Trump approval 51-53%
Trump approval net 42% or less positive but under 50%
exact tie or net approval negative but under 50% white
disapproval 50-52%
disapproval 53 or 54%
disapproval 55% or higher

Trump will lose every state in red or maroon. Pink is iffy. There are no surprises in states in gray; they wiil vote as in 2016, if probably not as strongly for Trump. Disapproval means giving up hope in this President.

I hope that I am not simply speaking for myself, but Americans seem to have tired of Donald Trump and on the whole are ready for change.

Biden 291/334 70/65M and 51/55 seat majority is the range, 500,/38 60/40, 80/65M is too much disparity between 2016/2020 65/62 49/51 seats and 235/306

AK, MT and TX are gone for Biden, he wants to end carbons and carbons are in the oil states

😆😆😆😆

[RI]

Chuck this entire thread in the trash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chuck this entire thread in the trash.

pbower2A makes the same maps every Election cycle as Moderator, he made the same map in 2016 as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still haven't heard from him and his inaccurate prediction