Trump approval ratings thread 1.6
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  Trump approval ratings thread 1.6
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.6  (Read 166321 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #2675 on: September 19, 2020, 10:29:31 AM »

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

I'm genuinely interested in your prediction, Beet. This would put some meet on the bones of your posts about Trump rising in the polls - if we could measure it objectively against a target.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2676 on: September 19, 2020, 01:45:46 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 02:22:15 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

I'm genuinely interested in your prediction, Beet. This would put some meet on the bones of your posts about Trump rising in the polls - if we could measure it objectively against a target.

Lol you're too much.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #2677 on: September 20, 2020, 02:36:22 PM »

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

I'm genuinely interested in your prediction, Beet. This would put some meet on the bones of your posts about Trump rising in the polls - if we could measure it objectively against a target.

Lol you're too much.

Careful. We all laughed at Beet when he predicted COVID-19 would become a worldwide pandemic and look how that turned out.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2678 on: September 20, 2020, 03:44:43 PM »

Civiqs tracker stable, as of 9/17.

National: 42/55 (-13)

Alaska: 46/52 (-6)
Arizona: 43/54 (-11)
Colorado: 39/58 (-19)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 46/52 (-6)
Kansas: 53/44 (+9)
Maine: 37/60 (-23)
Michigan: 43/55 (-12)
Minnesota: 40/57 (-17)
Montana: 49/49 (=)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 46/51 (-5)
North Carolina: 46/52 (-6)
Ohio: 47/50 (-3)
Pennsylvania: 43/54 (-11)
South Carolina: 50/48 (+2)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 40/57 (-17)
Wisconsin: 44/54 (-10)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2679 on: September 20, 2020, 05:57:31 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2020, 06:37:20 PM by pbrower2a »

Civiqs, 50-state approval poll



Trump approval:

55 or higher (saturation 7)
50-54 (saturation 5)
under 50 but positive (saturation 2)

exact tie (white)
45-50 but negative (saturation 2)
40-44 (saturation 5)
under 40 (saturation 7)


New Mexico (46-51)  is something of a surprise, but this poll relies heavily upon Internet access which may be lacking among the large number of very poor people, heavily First Peoples or Mexican-American, who would likely vote D in the state.

Can anyone tell how Donald Trump wins (fraud excluded, and I have no desire to give or receive any unsolicited suggestions except to forward those to the Federal Bureau of Investigation) with numbers like these? I can about as easily see the Detroit Tigers winning the Super Bowl this year (the Detroit Tigers are a baseball team). At this point, matchup numbers are closer to definitive. Matchup numbers are consequences of approval and disapproval numbers.

Addendum: the 42-55 split on approval is tied for the worst for this President. 
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emailking
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« Reply #2680 on: September 20, 2020, 07:18:14 PM »

Trump's approval rating is skyrocketing. He's now more popular than he was before the pandemic. The virus has been a political gift to him.

What do you think his approval rating will be on Election Day, Beet? Mid-50s, closer to 60?

I'm genuinely interested in your prediction, Beet. This would put some meet on the bones of your posts about Trump rising in the polls - if we could measure it objectively against a target.

Lol you're too much.

Careful. We all laughed at Beet when he predicted COVID-19 would become a worldwide pandemic and look how that turned out.


If you go back to the early days of Part 1 the hype from some posters was way worse than the eventual reality. Very high CFRs were being predicted/claimed, like orders of magnitude higher.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2681 on: September 20, 2020, 09:21:42 PM »

What happens if Trump wins which he may very well can now, Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals, he is at 47 percent. That's why Trafalger will keep showing polls disputing this 413 EC map

Trump is within 2 in Pa
Trump is 1 pt behind in FL all within margin of error.

We only can predict, we cant see in future, until it happens
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #2682 on: September 21, 2020, 07:46:44 AM »

What happens if Trump wins which he may very well can now, Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals, he is at 47 percent. That's why Trafalger will keep showing polls disputing this 413 EC map

Trump is within 2 in Pa
Trump is 1 pt behind in FL all within margin of error.

We only can predict, we cant see in future, until it happens

Not true, Trump's approval average is still an appalling 44%, if not lower.

He can't get about 44% either in vs Biden polling either.

He hasn't lead with any reputable pollster in any swing state the entire campaign.

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2683 on: September 21, 2020, 07:53:39 AM »

What happens if Trump wins which he may very well can now, Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals, he is at 47 percent. That's why Trafalger will keep showing polls disputing this 413 EC map

Trump is within 2 in Pa
Trump is 1 pt behind in FL all within margin of error.

We only can predict, we cant see in future, until it happens

Not true, Trump's approval average is still an appalling 44%, if not lower.

He can't get about 44% either in vs Biden polling either.

He hasn't lead with any reputable pollster in any swing state the entire campaign.

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

He can win between 44-46%, if there are enough people who honestly think he's that much of a mixed bag but still really want to vote. At this point, I think its going to be 46/47-53/54 on election day...which would mean Biden is winning by about 5-8%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2684 on: September 21, 2020, 08:50:10 AM »

ARG economic survey (monthly), Sep. 17-20, 1100 adults including 994 RV

Adults:

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

RV:

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+1)

This is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2685 on: September 21, 2020, 11:36:27 AM »

I am not Trump Toupe or Arizona Iced Tea, there might be a sock account between the two, who knows, due to the fact they both quote Rassy approval numbers and over rely on them, and they both come online at the same time. Again, who knows.
 
I said wait a few days to see if Rs are gonna get a bump from the nomination and today's polls confirmed that Trump isn't due to continued lockdowns, for Covid 19 and no mask mandate.

Trump is still gonna contest every ballot, Election day won't be over on Nov 3rd, and if a new justice is installed for a contested election, Trump in a tie scenario can still win
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BigSerg
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« Reply #2686 on: September 21, 2020, 09:44:37 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2687 on: September 22, 2020, 07:49:59 AM »

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority
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woodley park
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« Reply #2688 on: September 22, 2020, 08:38:29 PM »

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority

That poll is a clear outlier.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2689 on: September 23, 2020, 08:59:04 AM »

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority

That poll is a clear outlier.


Today's polls ABC poll shows Trump tied in AZ and leads in FL.  As I stated before Cook that does the PVI of every state has it 291-47 EC map and a 51-50 Senate with GA as the runoff seats. Ds will get 1 if Trump loses
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2690 on: September 23, 2020, 09:16:42 AM »

This approval rating knocks pbower map of 413 EC votes that he keeps up out of consideration. As I keep saying Cook has already stated it's a 291-47 EC map and a 51/49 Senate seat majority

That poll is a clear outlier.


Today's polls ABC poll shows Trump tied in AZ and leads in FL.  As I stated before Cook that does the PVI of every state has it 291-47 EC map and a 51-50 Senate with GA as the runoff seats. Ds will get 1 if Trump loses

278 freiwall 291 FREIWALL 😎
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2691 on: September 23, 2020, 09:57:56 AM »

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 20-22, 1500 adults including 1282 RV and 1124 LV

Adults:

Approve 42 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)


RV:

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Biden 44 (-6), Trump 38 (-3)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 40 (nc)


LV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

Biden 49 (-2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (-1), R 43 (+2)

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2692 on: September 23, 2020, 10:05:38 AM »

Vermont: Trump approval 30-64

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

No surprise here. We don't see many polls of Vermont.




Trump approval 55% or higher
Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

How does Trump win with such horrible numbers on approval?

Delaware, DEE CEE, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are not shown, but at this point Trump has disapproval numbers (figuring that Delaware, DC, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island) give Trump disapproval numbers of 55% or higher, then Biden has a very strong grasp on 272 electoral votes. This is more electoral failure by Trump than winning by Biden,  but that will not matter in November. 

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2693 on: September 23, 2020, 05:28:55 PM »

Biden isn't winning this type of map, he is likely to win by a small margin 269 to 291
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #2694 on: September 23, 2020, 09:58:19 PM »

Biden isn't winning this type of map, he is likely to win by a small margin 269 to 291

You can't win with 269, it goes to the house.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #2695 on: September 24, 2020, 12:04:48 PM »

Biden numbers dropping rapidly now....Trump is popping leads in FL, AZ, MI and almost NC, with PA razor thin.

Trump is also now in the mid 40s approval.

The election is turning, my friends.
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emailking
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« Reply #2696 on: September 24, 2020, 04:00:43 PM »

Biden numbers dropping rapidly now....Trump is popping leads in FL, AZ, MI and almost NC, with PA razor thin.

I saw Biden also popped leads in AZ and MI today.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2697 on: September 24, 2020, 05:57:53 PM »

We know the pbower's approvals map is wrong, Biden isn't gonna sweep every swing state out there including TX, GA or FL. But, Biden can win AZ, NC, OH and IA due to Joni Ernst is vulnerable


Biden sweeping every swing state is wrong and never happened before
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2698 on: September 24, 2020, 09:18:28 PM »

Because match-ups are more important, I am paying more attention to those. Approval polls got us to the matchups that we have.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2699 on: September 24, 2020, 09:57:00 PM »

TX probably wont go to Biden
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