Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Badger]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

"We weren't electing a priest!"

At some point the realization has to sink in that conservative causes are better represented under President Pence.

Also at some point Pence will come out of the closet as President-in-Waiting, which he has been since he agreed to be Trump's running mate.

I agree with the first part, but seriously doubt pencil even hint towards his Readiness to take over upon impeachment. Right now Pence's chances of being replaced by Nikki Haley on the ticket are better then replacing Trump due to impeachment, and if he signals any Vestige of what would be perceived as disloyalty by the Narcissist in Chief, those chances of replacement would Skyrocket. That is the modus operandi of this administration, of course.

If pence is smart, and I believe he is, he'll just dutifully stand by the president wow not becoming one of his most vocal anti impeachment Defenders. That way he remains a viable candidate for 2024. And if along the way and teachman happens after all, obviously he wins the ball game, but doesn't need to really do anything other than don't turn on Trump in the meantime

[Person Man]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Georgia.

45% approve, 54% disapprove.

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf

I was about right on this.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Clinton 1992 GA map would be vastly different from a winning 2020 Democratic GA map. Clinton won big in bubba good ole' boy country, while getting blown out in suburban Atlanta. The 2020 Democrat would get blown out amongst the bubbas, while winning Cobb, Gwinnett and other suburban counties easily.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Tracker (weekly), Nov. 12-13, 1116 adults including 952 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+4)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (nc), No 42 (-1)

RV:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 25 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 46 (+1), No 43 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Muhlenberg College, Nov. 4-9, 410 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

Biden 52, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 45
Warren 50, Trump 45

Trump deserves to be re-elected: 42/57

Approve of impeachment inquiry: 51/47

Impeach Trump: Yes 49, No 48

Muhlenberg is a very good pollster (rated A+ by 538).  Full results at https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/contentassets/pdf/academics/polisci/PA_Pres_Nov_2019__Report_%20(1).pdf.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Oct. 15-28, 1032 adults (1-month change)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+1)

Strongly approve 20 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

[Person Man]

He's hitting freezing again!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That sample voted Clinton +1.6, so it's probably too D-friendly.

Still, it's not a *good* poll for Trump, by any means...

True but the electorate is likely to skew a little more D in 2020 than 2016 was in Georgia since the age gap there is probably the biggest of any state, and four years of turnover would naturally favor Democrats. And more people moving to Atlanta. Still, probably unlikely to be a Clinton +2 sample, but something like Trump +1 or 2 in 2016 would be reasonable

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania at 40-56 and Georgia at 45-54? The difference suggests that the two polls are in line with the states' usual differences in orientation.

Georgia used to be polled often, and the AJC poll fits what I used to see much of. Trump cannot take Georgia for granted. It could be that Greater Atlanta is becoming the "Los Angeles of the South" in its politics. It is the growth area of Georgia, with the rest of the state not in a growth mode. (OK, I have also seen Dallas described as "LA without the beach"...when I lived there.

Can anyone fail to recognize that any effort to re-elect Donald Trump will be like trying to put out dozens of scattered brush fires?     

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Pennsylvania at 40-56 and Georgia at 45-54? The difference suggests that the two polls are in line with the states' usual differences in orientation.

Georgia used to be polled often, and the AJC poll fits what I used to see much of. Trump cannot take Georgia for granted. It could be that Greater Atlanta is becoming the "Los Angeles of the South" in its politics. It is the growth area of Georgia, with the rest of the state not in a growth mode. (OK, I have also seen Dallas described as "LA without the beach"...when I lived there.

Can anyone fail to recognize that any effort to re-elect Donald Trump will be like trying to put out dozens of scattered brush fires?     

If y'all really believe Trump will underperform McCain in Pennsylvania and ignore the obvious weighting errors in both polls (like the PA poll having just 10% independents and a +7 D registration advantage), then sorry, I can't help you

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania at 40-56 and Georgia at 45-54? The difference suggests that the two polls are in line with the states' usual differences in orientation.

Georgia used to be polled often, and the AJC poll fits what I used to see much of. Trump cannot take Georgia for granted. It could be that Greater Atlanta is becoming the "Los Angeles of the South" in its politics. It is the growth area of Georgia, with the rest of the state not in a growth mode. (OK, I have also seen Dallas described as "LA without the beach"...when I lived there.

Can anyone fail to recognize that any effort to re-elect Donald Trump will be like trying to put out dozens of scattered brush fires?    

If y'all really believe Trump will underperform McCain in Pennsylvania and ignore the obvious weighting errors in both polls (like the PA poll having just 10% independents and a +7 D registration advantage), then sorry, I can't help you

Obama won Pennsylvania by double digits in 2008. Yes, I see a Trump collapse imminent even should his Presidency survive impeachment. So I can easily see Trump losing Pennsylvania by 8%, which would still outperform Obama '08 in Pennsylvania.

At such a point, he is losing Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio by small margins. with Texas a bare win for him. Note well: Obama suddenly had an economic meltdown working for his election in what looked like a close election as late as September.

Speaking of a genuine war hero as opposed to someone whose lack of personal discipline and needful humility for the highest elected official manifests itself in disgraceful foreign policy and the worst relations between civilian leadership and the military (not to mention the diplomatic corps and federal law enforcement -- and those three are similar in ideology and world-view): it is unfortunate that there is no "McCain wing" in the Republican Party. The Republican Party is basically the TEA Party, and it found an idol in Donald Trump. McCain may have been as reactionary as the TEA Party on taxes, welfare, and labor-management relations as Trump, but I cannot imagine him being impressed by "beautiful letters" by the young gangster Emperor-in-all-but-name in North Korea or seeing Vladimir Putin as a kindred spirit... let alone selling out the Kurds in Syria. To say that Obama would never do such things is simply to recognize that liberalism opposes Trump; what remains of the old center-right is surely opposed.

I cannot say how much of the American electorate is "center right", but disapproval numbers in the middle fifties indicate that Trump has begun to lose it. Maybe it has lost its economic base of small farmers, mom-and-pop business owners, and junior executives who have a class interest not only in a vibrant economy that also protects their assets from inflation. Such people recognize that they need customers to stay afloat if they are farmers or mom-and-pop entrepreneurs or recognize that their subordinates need a stake in the system if they are not to become apathetic or even hostile to capitalism. Those are the people who have insurance policies and modest savings accounts... the American populace is becoming polarized between people living hand-to-mouth and people who live like sultans. If you ask about the parts of the middle class who make what look like high incomes -- they are often spending huge parts of their incomes paying landlords for living in the few places in which certain high-paying jobs are available.

A functioning democracy can hardly survive without a center-right. OK, we have many people calling themselves "Eisenhower Republicans" who considered Obama acceptable. Maybe such people are finding a home in the Democratic Party. Such people have little use for the cronyism, superstition, and corruption of Donald Trump and the TEA Party.         

[Cinemark]

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week. Thats extreme even for them.

Edit: Their twitter has also become increasingly Trump like in tone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week.

Go back a few more days and it's even worse: -11 to +1 to -10 to +1 over the last 11 days.  I've been wondering the same thing.  They used to be extremely stable.

[Cinemark]

Is Rasmussen okay?

They've gone from Trump +1 to Trump -10 to Trump +1 in a single week.

Go back a few more days and it's even worse: -11 to +1 to -10 to +1 over the last 11 days.  I've been wondering the same thing.  They used to be extremely stable.

You'd think a 1500 LV sample would be more stable.

[pbrower2a]

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Gustaf]

Pennsylvania at 40-56 and Georgia at 45-54? The difference suggests that the two polls are in line with the states' usual differences in orientation.

Georgia used to be polled often, and the AJC poll fits what I used to see much of. Trump cannot take Georgia for granted. It could be that Greater Atlanta is becoming the "Los Angeles of the South" in its politics. It is the growth area of Georgia, with the rest of the state not in a growth mode. (OK, I have also seen Dallas described as "LA without the beach"...when I lived there.

Can anyone fail to recognize that any effort to re-elect Donald Trump will be like trying to put out dozens of scattered brush fires?     

If y'all really believe Trump will underperform McCain in Pennsylvania and ignore the obvious weighting errors in both polls (like the PA poll having just 10% independents and a +7 D registration advantage), then sorry, I can't help you

Why would that be strange, Democrats have a big registration advantage in Pennsylvania.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

When 42% of registered voters in a large EV prize that's several states short of your tipping point think you should be removed from office for high crimes and misdemeanors, things aren't good.

[pbrower2a]

A couple of Fox News state polls:


North Carolina: Nov. 10-13, 1504 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly approve 42

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 42, No 50


Nevada: Nov. 10-13, 1506 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 43

Impeach and remove Trump? Yes 43, No 50

(map)

When 42% of registered voters in a large EV prize that's several states short of your tipping point think you should be removed from office for high crimes and misdemeanors, things aren't good.

Ruling out the possibility that North Carolina has become the tipping-point state (possible but unlikely, and in such a case, Trump isn't winning Wisconsin either), you have it right. There was no mainstream  effort to impeach Barack Obama. Disapproval could be close to 50%, but none of it was over any perception of corruption, dirty-dealing, or personal cruelty. People could still vote against him because they disagree with his agenda.

I did not come to support for impeachment and removal until a day before the disclosure of the extortion of the President of Ukraine -- and that was over Trump getting Air Force planes to stop at an airport to be refueled, an airport associated with one of his resorts. Congressional investigation was necessary, and on something like that, such an investigation is literal impeachment. I though impeachment futile and partisan, but unnecessary. After that I thought that it might still be futile and partisan in effect, but from then, necessary.

Blackmail of foreign leaders has been for things far more objectionable. Even if the gain were not his, the President should not extort resources or territory from another country. Tribute is obsolete, and diplomatic bulling is for gangster leaders like  Hitler and Stalin. Maybe we would be in a good position if the topic were the suppression of such crimes as piracy, banditry, slavery, or drug trafficking... but suppression of such monstrous acts usually implies the enhancement of local sovereignty of the country in question.

[pbrower2a]

University of Texas at Tyler:

47-49 on impeachment

Trump approve 43%, disapprove 49%

Trump still leads all Democrats  in early binary choices -- but even in his strongest position (against Kamala Harris) he barely cracks 46%

No change in the map, so I have no new map.




67% of all people expect a foreign country to attempt to create confusion in the election or otherwise interfere in the electoral process.



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20191118_TX.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Nov. 11-15, 1224 adults including 988 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

Impeach Trump? Yes 47 (-2), No 46 (-1)

Remove Trump? Yes 49 (+1), No 44 (-4)

RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Definitely vote for Trump 39 (nc)
Definitely vote against him 52 (nc)

GCB: D 46 (+3), R 41 (+1)

Impeach Trump? Yes 45 (-4), No 50 (+2)

Remove Trump? Yes 47 (nc), No 47 (-2)


Removal has more support than impeachment, which makes me think a lot of people don't understand the process.

[GP270watch]

Removal has more support than impeachment, which makes me think a lot of people don't understand the process.

 In the context of the question I agree with you. But it could also mean they find impeachment polarizing and they rather reject Trump at the polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: Climate Nexus, Nov. 4-10, 688 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 40

Biden 48, Trump 47
Warren 47, Trump 47
Trump 48, Sanders 46
Trump 49, Harris 44
Trump 49, Buttigieg 42

Biden 31
Sanders 14
Warren 14
Harris 4
Buttigieg 4
Yang 2
Booker 2
Williamson 2
Others 1 or less

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Nov. 7-12, 1205 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly approve 48 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Nov. 1-14, 1015 adults (2-week change)

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)