AZ 2022: Kelly vs Ducey?
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  AZ 2022: Kelly vs Ducey?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: AZ 2022: Kelly vs Ducey?  (Read 1979 times)
Woody
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« on: February 24, 2020, 03:39:09 PM »
If Kelly wins this year, will Ducey challenge him in 2022?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2020, 03:41:18 PM »
Yes, and he will win.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2020, 03:43:13 PM »

Only under an unpopular Democratic president. Otherwise, no.

I think Ducey appointed McSally for this very reason, to have the weakest possible Republican going into 2020, so that he's the favorite for 2022.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2020, 03:48:40 PM »
Since Biden is gonna be Prez not Bernie, Kelly will beat Ducey
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 04:14:05 PM »
If Trump wins in 2020 and Kelly wins anyway, I don't see how he loses in 2022. If a Democrat wins, then I'd rate this a Toss-Up.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2020, 04:19:23 PM »
Quote from: Xing on February 24, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
If Trump wins in 2020 and Kelly wins anyway, I don't see how he loses in 2022. If a Democrat wins, then I'd rate this a Toss-Up.

An outgoing GOP governor beating an incumbent Democratic senator in a Trump midterm? That will never happen.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2020, 04:23:44 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on February 24, 2020, 03:43:13 PM

Only under an unpopular Democratic president. Otherwise, no.

I think Ducey appointed McSally for this very reason, to have the weakest possible Republican going into 2020, so that he's the favorite for 2022.

This.

Kelly vs. Ducey will be a big tossup.
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2020, 06:30:11 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 24, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
Quote from: Xing on February 24, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
If Trump wins in 2020 and Kelly wins anyway, I don't see how he loses in 2022. If a Democrat wins, then I'd rate this a Toss-Up.

An outgoing GOP governor beating an incumbent Democratic senator in a Trump midterm? That will never happen.

In case people aren't aware, Arizona =/= Florida.
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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2020, 06:34:34 PM »
It will depend a lot on who is in the White House, though I think Kelly could do respectably in an unfavorable year.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2020, 07:04:09 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 24, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
Quote from: Xing on February 24, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
If Trump wins in 2020 and Kelly wins anyway, I don't see how he loses in 2022. If a Democrat wins, then I'd rate this a Toss-Up.

An outgoing GOP governor beating an incumbent Democratic senator in a Trump midterm? That will never happen.

Okay, if Kelly runs as horrible of a campaign as Nelson did, and AZ doesn't continue trending Democratic, then maybe Ducey could win by 0.1%.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2020, 07:06:33 PM »
Conservatives must realize AZ doesnt have McCain anymore and it is going the way of NV, when Ensign resigned in disgrace
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2020, 07:47:46 PM »
Quote from: I Beg to Dream and Differ on February 24, 2020, 06:30:11 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 24, 2020, 04:19:23 PM
Quote from: Xing on February 24, 2020, 04:14:05 PM
If Trump wins in 2020 and Kelly wins anyway, I don't see how he loses in 2022. If a Democrat wins, then I'd rate this a Toss-Up.

An outgoing GOP governor beating an incumbent Democratic senator in a Trump midterm? That will never happen.

In case people aren't aware, Arizona =/= Florida.

Both have large old populations. Also, Ducey is quite popular. He won re-election in 2018 by double digits.
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The Mamdani Virus
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« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2020, 05:43:32 PM »
Perhaps, and Ducey may start as the favorite

If it's a Trump midterm though, would Ducey want to run in such a toxic environment, lean no

In a Democratic midterm, he likely runs and likely wins
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« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2020, 05:48:56 PM »
If Its a Trump Midterm: Likely D maybe even Safe(If the GOP cant win the Senate seat when Trump is winning the state , they are winning it in 2022)

If its a Biden Midterm: Lean R

If its a Bernie Midter: Likely R(unless Kelly turns into Sinema in which case its still Lean R)
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2020, 10:58:31 AM »
Regardless,  even in a Bernie midterm, Kelly will serve 6 years
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DaWN
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« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2020, 12:59:45 PM »
If a Democrat is President: Tossup (even if that president is Sanders and even if Ducey says socialism)
If Trump is President: Lean/Likely D

That was easy enough
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2020, 01:45:11 PM »
Kelly and Hassan are safe regardless
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Storr
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« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2020, 02:26:30 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on February 26, 2020, 12:27:52 PM
Who do you guys think would have a better chance of winning a Senate seat in a Sanders/Biden midterm, Chris Sununu (assuming he wins this year) or Doug Ducey? I think you could make a case for either one.
The one not in New Hampshire.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2020, 02:49:27 PM »
We have 7 months left and people are already assuming Volinsky and Zuckerman dead. They have a much better chance than Galloway and Cooney, where the states are gonna vote for Trump no matter what
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2016
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« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2020, 04:54:42 PM »
Regardless if either Sanders or Biden is in the White House Ducey will win here. And Kimberly Yee will take out Turncoat Sinema in 2024.
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« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2020, 05:43:09 PM »
Quote from: 2016 on February 26, 2020, 04:54:42 PM
Regardless if either Sanders or Biden is in the White House Ducey will win here. And Kimberly Yee will take out Turncoat Sinema in 2024.

Someone doesn't know very much about politics.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2020, 08:46:53 PM »
Quote from: Chancellor Gracile on February 24, 2020, 06:34:34 PM
It will depend a lot on who is in the White House, though I think Kelly could do respectably in an unfavorable year.
Rick scott wants a word with u
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #22 on: June 18, 2020, 06:39:25 AM »
I’m normally pessimistic as you all know but in this situation I can’t see Kelly losing even in a Biden mid term.
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andjey
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« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2020, 07:57:28 AM »
My rating for AZ-Sen 2022 in Biden midterm: Lean D, closer to Likely D than Tossup
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Orser67
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« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2020, 08:12:46 AM »
Assuming a Kelly vs. Ducey matchup with Kelly as the incumbent:

Trump mid-term: Likely D
Biden mid-term: Tossup

Kelly looks like he could be an unusually strong candidate, and AZ is pretty clearly a swing state at this point, so I certainly wouldn't write off Kelly in a Biden mid-term. But it's always difficult for a one-term incumbent to fend off a challenge from a two-term governor in a swing state during a Democratic mid-term.

In a Trump mid-term, I think it would be extremely difficult to dislodge Kelly, although Rick Scott did something reasonably similar in 2018.
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