How would Florida vote in a Trump vs Sanders matchup?

[McGarnagle]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Sanders, but it will be by under 1%

[Former Lincoln Assemblyman & Lt. Gov. RGN]

Trump wins by 2-3 points. Bernie will probably do poorly in the Cuban areas and rich senior retiree areas.

Same idea.

[indietraveler]

Likely Trump, but by a small margin.

Wealthy racist retired Boomers don't care about social programs or the future of the planet. They care about staying wealthy and enjoying their retirement years.

[UWS]

I'd say Lean R. Andrew Gillum's loss in 2018 gubernatorial race shows how much he was too liberal for Florida by running on a Sanders-like program and record.

[lfromnj]

trump significantly outperformed romney among cuban-americans of all age groups.

According to the news networks' exit polls. But the news network exit polls are not reliable/accurate in particular for small sub-samples. This is a common problem with exit polls especially of Hispanic voters, and the basic reason for it is that exit polls don't use simple random sampling of voters, but use stratified sampling. That is because it is not economically feasible to interview voters randomly regardless of polling location, so they end up selecting smaller #s of precincts to interview at and hope that the ones that they select are representative (they never are, or can be, for all sub-groups, at least with reasonable sample sizes).

That is why if you look at precinct results (or even county results) you will see a different story.

That said, it is true that Trump did comparatively well among some Hispanics - but those were generally rural Hispanics in places like the Rio Grande Valley in TX, not urban/suburban Hispanics. This is related to the fact that Trump did well in rural areas in general, and poorly in urban/suburban areas. The way Trump won Florida was with white voters, in particular in the North-Central part of the state turning out and voting R at higher rates than before, but he did worse than Romney in Miami.

Btw the RGV swinging R is a partial myth in 2016. Look at the net vote margin. Rather what happened is turnout massively increased +3rd party vote increase made it look like an R trend, For example Webb county Tx had Hillary gain 4710 and Trump gain 1869 votes, although Trump got a higher percentage of these votes than what Romney got so it explains part of the R swing there was also the fact 3rd party went from 500 to 2000 which mostly affects the party with the higher percentage of the vote.

[Gracile]

I can't see the margin of victory being more than ~2% just because of the nature of Florida's electorate where both parties have relatively high floors.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Cubans are still trending D, even under a Sanders nomination. Plus Sanders' popularity with other Latinos (specifically Puerto Ricans, Mexican Americans, and Dominicans) will be enough to counter retirees with one foot in the grave in The Villages. Comes down to whether or not youth and black turnout will be high enough to give him the win. I'm gonna say tossup, but I think Sanders' chances her are severely underrated.

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R

Trump wins 51/48. Sanders wins Duval though

[Frenchrepublican]

Florida is not a swing state in a Trump v. Sanders matchup

It was for Gillum v. DeSantis, so it will be here too.

Yeah but stop assuming that every future election will feature a very D friendly climate. Trump will do probably better than DeSantis in exurban areas, Pasco County for example, simply because of higher turnout among white non college folks

[SN2903]

Lean R

Trump wins 51/48. Sanders wins Duval though

No he wouldn't

[SN2903]

Trump 53%
Bernie 47%

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

Trump: 50%; Sanders: 47.5%

[sg0508]

Trump 52-47%.  Bernie's only hope we would extreme turnout in Miami-Dade and Broward. 

Otherwise, I see him as a very poor fit.  Then again, medicare is a wildcard.