Ukraine general discussion

[afleitch]

[snip]

Blocking military sales to Ukraine while it is on the verge of being invaded is absolutely unconscionable. What the hell is Germany doing.

Not leaving an arsenal of weapons for the Russians to take on the event of the Ukraine being overrun.

[😥]

I don't know much about Ukrainian politics but it's baffling to me how the country appears paralysed by political infighting given the troop movements that are happening on its neighbouring borders. Has Zelensky been as AWOL as he appears from here? Is there any explanation for that other than incompetence?

Zelensky's team has already brought the country to a terrible situation. Poroshenko's persecution, which is a purely politically motivated desire, is caused by several factors. The main one, as you already mentioned, is the incompetence of Zelensky's team. They also include the pro-Russian views of Ermak, who probably wants to play along with the Kremlin; the desire of Zelensky's advisers to get rid of a formidable political opponent for the incumbent President; and the desire for personal revenge on Poroshenko from Zelensky because of Poroshenko's ban during his reign on films made by Zelensky with Russian actors.

[😥]

[snip]

Blocking military sales to Ukraine while it is on the verge of being invaded is absolutely unconscionable. What the hell is Germany doing.

Not leaving an arsenal of weapons for the Russians to take on the event of the Ukraine being overrun.

The reason why the German government is doing this is quite different. They are just playing along with the Kremlin, including with the construction and future launch of Nord Stream - 2.

[CumbrianLefty]

So NATO is getting involved, then yeah, I doubt conflict arises this time. Eventually the time will be that Russia will invade Ukraine and perhaps the Baltics, but I doubt it happens now.

Not even Putin is dumb enough to do that, and he would probably be bumped off first if he tried.

[Cassius]

[snip]

Blocking military sales to Ukraine while it is on the verge of being invaded is absolutely unconscionable. What the hell is Germany doing.

Not leaving an arsenal of weapons for the Russians to take on the event of the Ukraine being overrun.

The reason why the German government is doing this is quite different. They are just playing along with the Kremlin, including with the construction and future launch of Nord Stream - 2.

Plus, the Kremlin doesn’t really need western military equipment (anymore) - we’re not talking about the Taliban here.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1483491902225895425?s=20

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1483240662535446531?t=Iv_HUVPjeN5wkcVsuQt7...

[😥]

I am ashamed that Zelensky is the President of Ukraine. I am very ashamed, I am ready to fall through the Earth. I can no longer see or hear him. It is horrible to watch him destroy the international coalition in support of Ukraine and try to make concessions to Russia.

[DavidB.]

I am ashamed that Zelensky is the President of Ukraine. I am very ashamed, I am ready to fall through the Earth. I can no longer see or hear him. It is horrible to watch him destroy the international coalition in support of Ukraine and try to make concessions to Russia.

What is he doing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am ashamed that Zelensky is the President of Ukraine. I am very ashamed, I am ready to fall through the Earth. I can no longer see or hear him. It is horrible to watch him destroy the international coalition in support of Ukraine and try to make concessions to Russia.

What is he doing?

Given a speech saying that there's nothing to worry about and that people abroad saying otherwise is bad for economic confidence.

[PSOL]

I believe in polling SN is lower than Poroshenko’s party for the first time. The way it is going he may be out this upcoming election.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I am ashamed that Zelensky is the President of Ukraine. I am very ashamed, I am ready to fall through the Earth. I can no longer see or hear him. It is horrible to watch him destroy the international coalition in support of Ukraine and try to make concessions to Russia.

What is he doing?

Given a speech saying that there's nothing to worry about and that people abroad saying otherwise is bad for economic confidence.

Nuh. Ukranians are mad at Biden's "fearmongering" of many reasons. Not only because of economics, but because many experts, both Russian, Ukrainian and  "Western" thinks, fearmongering might pressure Ukraine into more concession.


Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/97d15970-3c36-439d-aa38-7402f732efbc

Ukranian officials/experts/advisers/entrepreneurs on Economy => "spreading panic are helping, intentionally or unintentionally, Mr Putin":

Investors have taken fright. Ukraine is, in effect, locked out of capital markets, although the biggest bond redemptions of the year are not due until September.

“Even if nothing happens, it is a macroeconomic shock,” says Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former economy minister and adviser to the presidential administration. “It will have an impact on mood, morale and allocation of resources.”

Yevgenii Utkin, a Russian-born entrepreneur in Kyiv, says three international transactions involving investments in tech companies he founded or invested in have stalled in the past month. “Now there is no way to sell,” he says.

The economic damage is part and parcel of Putin’s campaign to destabilise Ukraine, say Zelensky’s allies. Economic hardship could help Moscow turn Ukrainians against their government.

“Those who are spreading panic are helping, intentionally or unintentionally, Mr Putin,” says Yuriy Vitrenko, the head of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s gas company, who has also been tipped as a future prime minister. “We have been living under a constant threat of invasion and I’m not sure this is very different.”

Ukranian officials/experts/advisers on possible concession =>

But analysts and government advisers believe Putin’s real intention is to gain influence rather than territory. Despite repeated US reassurances, they still suspect Ukraine will come under intense pressure to compromise with Russia and change the constitution to give permanent autonomy to separatist-held Donbas regions, giving them a veto over future agreements with the EU or Nato — a concession that could provoke a nationalist backlash in Ukraine and endanger the government.

“From the outset they have seen this as a pressure campaign,” says a European diplomat.

Stressing the need to “not panic”, Danilov says Russia’s top priority in threatening a full-blown invasion is to encourage Europe and the US to pressure Kyiv to capitulate on the Minsk peace agreements, which aimed to end the war in Donbas. Such a compromise would, in turn, “achieve domestic destabilisation of our country” followed by regime change.

Asked if western countries would play along with such a proposal in order to prevent a full-blown war, he adds: “I would not want to even think about this, that they are in cahoots. It’s difficult for me to say.”

Per FT, Angolsaxones were quite effective on it - normie Ukranians started to noticing. Especially effective message was the evacuations of the diplomats.

This sense of anxiety was first felt among English-speaking Ukrainians exposed to intensive western media coverage and those with foreign friends and family. Two of Kyiv’s international schools are closing. Andriy says he was unnerved by a message sent to an Israeli friend in Ukraine from the Israeli government about a possible evacuation. But now the concerns, repeatedly relayed by senior US officials, are filtering through to the population more widely.

“This is the first time since 2014 that news about a possible invasion is coming from the west and not Ukraine,” says Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center, a think-tank in Kyiv. Ukrainians are “exhausted” by warnings from their own government and might be more inclined to believe the US president, she suggests.

A decision this week by the US and UK embassies to evacuate diplomatic families and allow non-essential personnel to leave rattled Ukrainians. It also angered the Ukrainian government, which continues to downplay the imminent threat.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If you prefer NyT, they have similar article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/28/world/europe/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html
White House Warnings Over Russia Strain Ukraine-U.S. Partnership
While Ukraine’s president complained about “acute and burning” warnings from Washington, the Pentagon issued a dire new appraisal asserting Russia has amassed enough troops to invade his entire country.

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials sharply criticized the Biden administration Friday for its ominous warnings of an imminent Russian attack, saying they had needlessly spread alarm, even as a new Pentagon assessment said Russia was now positioned to go beyond a limited incursion and invade all of Ukraine.

Officials and analysts on why Ukrainians are mad:

Officials and analysts see a variety of reasons for the disconnect between Ukrainian and American approaches to publicizing the threat. For eight years, Ukraine has been engaged in a war that ebbs and flows with Russian-backed separatists in two breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine. Periods of intense fighting and escalation have followed long stretches of calm. Ukrainians, officials say, view the Russian threat as part of their daily existence.

Mr. Zelensky is also primarily concerned about the effects on the economy and domestic stability, but there are other dangers, said Maria Zolkina, a political analyst with the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Kyiv-based research group.

“The more serious the expectation when it comes to aggression, the more Ukraine could be pressured into making a range of concessions to Russia in order to lower the tensions,” she said.

Another divergence between Ukraine and its western allies, Ms. Zolkina said, could be the weight they give to certain types of intelligence. The American and British intelligence services might have superior access to information about troop movements and even classified decision making within the Kremlin, she said, but the Ukrainians look at that intelligence with a deeper understanding of the context.

The rift was exacerbated just over a week ago when Mr. Biden suggested that a “minor incursion” by Russian forces into Ukraine, rather than a full-fledged invasion, might not elicit the same forceful response the White House has been promising.

Mr. Zelensky responded publicly on Twitter: “We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations,” he wrote. His posting angered the White House and Ukraine’s allies on Capitol Hill. “We are quite exasperated,” one congressional Democrat said, speaking on condition of anonymity, suggesting the Ukrainian president had not been getting the best advice on how to navigate Washington.

The Kremlin has taken notice of the discord, too.

“Now, the Americans have started to so blatantly and cynically use Ukraine against Russia that even the regime in Kyiv has become alarmed,” Mr. Lavrov said earlier Friday, commenting on the breach even before Mr. Zelensky spoke. “They are saying, ‘there’s no need to ramp up the discussion, to use military rhetoric, why are you evacuating diplomats?’”

Biden's "minor incursion" was, too, a big deal and imo plays a big role on why Ukranie are worry about the "pressure". If minor incursion" is not a big deal, if Russian invasion is likely, it puts much more pressure on Ukraine.

If so, Biden proves to be truly anti-war once again.

[KaiserDave]

Zelensky is historically incompetent. What a disgrace. Poroshenko may very well be corrupt, but he wouldn't ROLLING OVER.

Disgraceful. And Germany too, disgraceful.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1487032303050280963

I love everything about this, especially the beard.

[PSOL]

If both the president of Ukraine and Defense Minister say it isn’t happening, then it isn’t likely to happen. This whole ruse has done nothing but point out the weakness of NATO and rile up heuristic wringing.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Zelensky is historically incompetent. What a disgrace. Poroshenko may very well be corrupt, but he wouldn't ROLLING OVER.

Disgraceful. And Germany too, disgraceful.

Biden probably has been trying to "roll over" Ze to get more concessions. Nevertheless, Ze persisted (so far). Agree, that this is disgraceful!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's a delusional conspiracy theory given that the US (or UK) has never been a signatory to Minsk. They're not even part of the ongoing Normandy process. France and Germany are the stakeholders, and they're less publicly alarmed! Why on earth would the US be hyping an invasion to gain concessions on a negotiation process they don't care about and aren't even party to?

[Farmlands]

Zelensky is historically incompetent. What a disgrace. Poroshenko may very well be corrupt, but he wouldn't ROLLING OVER.

Disgraceful. And Germany too, disgraceful.

Keeping the calm and the economy running is very different from rolling over. You're acting as if Russia has invaded the country already, when for all we know, this may just be an exact repeat of the 2021 tensions situation.

[KaiserDave]

Zelensky is historically incompetent. What a disgrace. Poroshenko may very well be corrupt, but he wouldn't ROLLING OVER.

Disgraceful. And Germany too, disgraceful.

Keeping the calm and the economy running is very different from rolling over. You're acting as if Russia has invaded the country already, when for all we know, this may just be an exact repeat of the 2021 tensions situation.

Not to be a pedant
But they already did in 2014
I just feel as if Ukraine has a lot to lose by sacrificing readiness at this point

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Uhm, wut. Biden repeatedly talked about Minsk Agreements. I mean, if you really thinks, that Putin is going to attack despite all the sanctions etc (which Putin proved he can), than, of course, you understand, that Putin probably have to get something to back off while saving the face. Minsk Agreements is arguably one of few low-hanging fruits here.

Biden on call with Ze on Jan 2nd:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/02/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-president-bidens-call-with-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-of-ukraine/
Statement by Press Secretary Jen Psaki on President Biden’s Call with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine
JANUARY 02, 2022 •STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine. The leaders expressed support for diplomatic efforts, starting next week with the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, at NATO through the NATO-Russia Council, and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. President Biden underscored the commitment of the United States and its allies and partners to the principle of “nothing about you without you.” He reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also expressed support for confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in Donbas and active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format.

###

Biden's call with Ze Jan 27th:

Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine
JANUARY 27, 2022 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. President Biden reaffirmed the readiness of the United States along with its allies and partners to respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine. He also underscored the commitment of the United States to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. President Biden noted the United States has provided Ukraine with over half a billion dollars in development and humanitarian assistance in the last year, and is exploring additional macroeconomic support to help Ukraine’s economy amidst pressure resulting from Russia’s military build-up. President Biden made clear that despite the departure of American family members of embassy personnel, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, remains open and fully operational. The leaders discussed coordinated diplomatic efforts on European security, underscoring the principle of “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” President Biden relayed the United States’ support for conflict resolution efforts in the Normandy Format, expressing his hope that the sides’ recommitment on January 26 to the terms of the July 2020 ceasefire will help decrease tensions and advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements.

###

You can look at Blinken's press-conferences/statements as well. They are basically are the same:
- blah blah blah support for Ukraine’s sovereignty
- blah blah blah sanctions, if Russia invades
- blah blah blah diplomacy by means of Minsk Agreements



At least, as far as I know, the Minsk Agreements are extremely unpopular in Ukraine. Аndriу can probably give a more nuanced interpretation of where and how popular/unpopular the Minsk Agreements are in Ukraine.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

You put a lot more weight on generic diplomatspeak than I do. US has no stake in implementing Minsk and has never actually put any pressure on Ukraine to implement it. Why would they? It was forced on Ukraine by a Russian invasion of Donbas. US-Russia negotiations so far have all been on arms control and limiting military exercises.

I mean, if you really thinks, that Putin is going to attack despite all the sanctions etc (which Putin proved he can), than, of course, you understand, that Putin probably have to get something to back off while saving the face. Minsk Agreements is arguably one of few low-hanging fruits here.

This is all true. If you think Russia is going to invade then pressuring the Ukrainian government to implement Minsk as part of a deal might make sense. But the premise of that is you have good reason to believe that Russia is going to invade. So by definition there is no "fearmongering": the US assessment of Russia's intentions must be accurate for that logic to be sound.

Obviously no-one knows what Putin is going to do. But Zelensky is making an incredibly high stakes gamble that the Russian military buildup is certainly a bluff. I don't think the evidence we have supports that.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

My own view is that if Putin was trying to gain concessions by threatening war as part of a destabilisation effort against Ukraine, then a quiet military buildup since March of last year while denying any hostile intentions is the exact opposite of how one would want to do that. But if one was contemplating a surprise invasion, it's exactly what one would do.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You put a lot more weight on generic diplomatspeak than I do. US has no stake in implementing Minsk and has never actually put any pressure on Ukraine to implement it. Why would they? It was forced on Ukraine by a Russian invasion of Donbas.  

Because, as I said, in my opinion it is most obvious low-hanging fruit. Biden has a lot of domestic issues, midterms and his focus is China. So his "stake" is that he really doesn't need this headache and that Minsk Agreement is relatively a low-cost measure for US to accomplish the goal.

I mean, if you really thinks, that Putin is going to attack despite all the sanctions etc (which Putin proved he can), than, of course, you understand, that Putin probably have to get something to back off while saving the face. Minsk Agreements is arguably one of few low-hanging fruits here.

This is all true. If you think Russia is going to invade then pressuring Zelensky to implement Minsk as part of a deal might make sense. But the premise of that is you have good reason to believe that Russia is going to invade. So by definition there is no "fearmongering": the US assessment of Russia's intentions must be accurate for that logic to be sound.

Of course. Ukrainians acknowledge that, too. But they say, screaming about it doesn't help. In fact, they say, it hurts.

I think, you agree, that US's way to talk about it was *very* public, which is *very* unusual. Ok, perhaps, it's fine, but it's not only that. They are pumping it on daily basis. Moreover, Anglosaxones moved their diplomats, but EU didn't, which means that their intelligence/probability assessment wasn't good enough for Europeans.

I'm pretty sure, that was some intelligence that would indicate that Taliban would invade and take whole Afghanistan in weeks/months. Obvs, not comparable to Ukraine, but US acts *very* public now. Might very well has tons of other explanations, but intentional or not consequence is (per Ukraine officials) that it destroy their economy and "pressures" them into more concessions.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think, you agree, that US's way to talk about it was *very* public, which is *very* unusual. Ok, perhaps, it's fine, but it's not only that. They are pumping it on daily basis. Moreover, Anglosaxones moved their diplomats, but EU didn't, which means that their intelligence/probability assessment wasn't good enough for Europeans.

I'm pretty sure, that was some intelligence that would indicate that Taliban would invade and take whole Afghanistan in weeks/months. Obvs, not comparable to Ukraine, but US acts *very* public now. Might very well has tons of other explanations, but intentional or not consequence is (per Ukraine officials) that it destroy their economy and "pressures" them into more concessions.

Yes of course. Going public has been a very deliberate strategy by Five Eyes to smoke out Russian intentions, raise the stakes, inflict costs. It seems to have caught Russia on the hop and their diplomatic effort appears to me rushed and improvised.

I don't agree with everything in this article but Leonid Bershidsky had an interesting interpretation the other day:

https://twitter.com/Bershidsky/status/1486664366447542272?s=20&t=LcP8bb1YHig...
Russia may well be hoping for a Ukrainian mobilisation to use as a casual belli. All very murky.