California Primary Megathread

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Going bold
Imperial

In 2016, it was the least Sanders, but this time could be the most.  Bernie and Biden will both do relatively well here, with less for the others.

Generally speaking, Bernie's best areas will be in the interior and on the north coast.

[Greedo punched first]

What will be the best county of Sanders, Warren, Biden, and Bloomberg?

Might this 2018 CA US Senate map give any clues?

2018 CA US Senate: Dianne Feinstein (D), Kevin de Leon (D)

I'm not really sure how helpful that is since Republicans voted for De Leon in that election. Having said that I think Sanders will do the best in the Bay Area and Los Angeles.

Humboldt and Mendocino are heavily Democratic. Are most Sanders voters de Leon voters?

For the most part I would say yes. Those were his two best counties last time.

How well does Sanders do in the Feinstein counties?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RoseKapol/status/1233214116975632386?s=20

[Greedo punched first]

The Board of Equalization districts highlight the urban-rural divide. Whiche BoE district will be Sanders' best?
In CA-SEN 2018, district 1 was the only won de Leon won.

Dianne Feinstein (D), de Leon (D)

[ElectionsGuy]

I think it'll be pretty irrelevant because 2nd-5th will be bunched up with a clear Sanders win. Kind of like Nevada, except I think he'll do worse than in Nevada because of less black % and Bloomberg being on the ballot.

The big question is a delegate related one: will he be able to hit at or around 15% statewide and enough CD's to make a dent into Sanders lead? Right now he's on the fence.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Probably Humboldt. Maaaybe Santa Cruz if it's gonna be in affluent CA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The SF, LA counties, none of the early voters that I saw were Biden supporters,  they were Latino Bernie supporters

[cvparty]

santa cruz or imperial

[Crumpets]

Humboldt or Mendocino. They're basically the Vermont of the West Coast.

(I say that never having never been to either and just going off of stereotypes.)

[Coastal Elitist]

mail in ballot update (percent returned)

Dem: 1,318,365 (18%)
Rep: 1,123,887 (28%)
Ind/Oth: 619,632 (13%)
Total: 3,061,884 (19%)

[Coastal Elitist]

Warren seems to be really betting on California to keep her in the race. I've seen six tv ads for her over the weekend and before I'd seen none.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234362587531370496

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234362587531370496

Bit disingenuous to mention this without bringing up the subsample size is 25.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234362587531370496

Bit disingenuous to mention this without bringing up the subsample size is 25.

wait its only 25 , if true than junk this poll

[RI]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234362587531370496

Bit disingenuous to mention this without bringing up the subsample size is 25.

wait its only 25 , if true than junk this poll

The poll is fine; it's the "decided today" subsample that's small.

[Coastal Elitist]

Well I voted today.

Update:
Dem:1,586,801 (22%)
Rep: 1,257,685 (32%)
Ind/Oth: 718,100 (15%)
Total: 3,562,586 (22%)

[Coastal Elitist]

Update:

Dem: 1,905,600 (26%)
Rep: 1,388,342 (17%)
Ind/Oth: 831,226 (35%)
Total: 4,125,168 (26%)

[John Dule]

Trinity, Humboldt, or Mendocino. Too many rich people in the Bay for him to perform his best here.

Going bold
Imperial

I just want to flex about how well lfromnj and I called these counties. Sanders broke 40% in only three California counties and together we predicted all three of them. Trinity was also one of his best.