Canadian by-elections, 2019
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2019  (Read 22116 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #300 on: November 26, 2019, 11:25:08 AM »
« edited: November 26, 2019, 11:37:07 AM by Hatman 🍁 »

They're all vaguely centre left / centre, I think. As with most municipal political parties outside Montreal, they're mostly cults of personalities. Former NDP MP Francois Pilon ran for Parti Laval in 2017 and Action Laval used to be led by Jean-Claude Gobe, a federal Liberal and Adequiste. Wikipedia describes Mouvement lavallois as Social Democratic.

Upon doing more research, it looks like several Mouvement lavallois members defected to Action Laval, so it's not surprising that they Surin didn't do well.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #301 on: November 26, 2019, 04:09:06 PM »

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #302 on: November 26, 2019, 04:26:55 PM »

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.

No clue, but seems it will be at the same time as Shediac Bay (caused by the resignation of Brian Gallant, former Premier).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #303 on: November 26, 2019, 05:26:20 PM »

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.

No clue, but seems it will be at the same time as Shediac Bay (caused by the resignation of Brian Gallant, former Premier).

That makes sense as balance of power the same.  Liberals should easily hold Shediac Bay.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #304 on: November 29, 2019, 02:14:43 PM »

Mainstreet has CAQ +10 in Jean-Talon.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #305 on: November 29, 2019, 03:38:49 PM »


Doesn't surprise me. Despite this riding having always voted Liberal since its creation in 1966 (and before that since 1952), the Liberals have rarely broken 45% in recent years. Now with an alternative right-of-centre non-separatist party, federalist voters can shop around.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #306 on: November 29, 2019, 07:02:10 PM »


Doesn't surprise me. Despite this riding having always voted Liberal since its creation in 1966 (and before that since 1952), the Liberals have rarely broken 45% in recent years. Now with an alternative right-of-centre non-separatist party, federalist voters can shop around.

It's not really a particularly federalist riding (relatively speaking); it was only 52% Non, and nearly voted PQ in both 1994 and 1998. Which makes a CAQ victory even less surprising; the issue in the past seems to be that the PQ retained a lot of residual strength and organization even when they weren't in a position to potentially win (e.g., the PQ were still a solid second in 2007 over the ADQ in distant third despite the ADQ knocking the PQ into third province-wide).
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #307 on: December 03, 2019, 10:23:23 AM »

Last night was the by-election in Jean-Talon.

Results:

CAQ: 43.4% (+14.8 )
PLQ: 25.0% (-7.5)
QS: 17.0% (-2.2)
PQ: 9.3% (-5.1)
PVQ: 2.8% (+1.0)
PCQ: 1.0% (-0.8 )
Oth: 1.5% (-0.5)

Turnout: 49.2% (-26.0)

CAQ GAIN from PLQ (Swing: 11.2%)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #308 on: December 03, 2019, 12:45:49 PM »

Last night was the by-election in Jean-Talon.

Results:

CAQ: 43.4% (+14.8 )
PLQ: 25.0% (-7.5)
QS: 17.0% (-2.2)
PQ: 9.3% (-5.1)
PVQ: 2.8% (+1.0)
PCQ: 1.0% (-0.8 )
Oth: 1.5% (-0.5)

Turnout: 49.2% (-26.0)

CAQ GAIN from PLQ (Swing: 11.2%)


This was the PLQ's last seat outside of the Montreal or Ottawa metro regions, correct? That's going to be a problem in the future.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #309 on: December 03, 2019, 01:26:25 PM »

Last night was the by-election in Jean-Talon.

Results:

CAQ: 43.4% (+14.8 )
PLQ: 25.0% (-7.5)
QS: 17.0% (-2.2)
PQ: 9.3% (-5.1)
PVQ: 2.8% (+1.0)
PCQ: 1.0% (-0.8 )
Oth: 1.5% (-0.5)

Turnout: 49.2% (-26.0)

CAQ GAIN from PLQ (Swing: 11.2%)


This was the PLQ's last seat outside of the Montreal or Ottawa metro regions, correct? That's going to be a problem in the future.

That's what the local articles I read said. They now hold no seats east of Montreal.

Kind of lays bare the truth that the party is not much more than the English vote.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #310 on: December 03, 2019, 02:28:03 PM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #311 on: December 03, 2019, 03:21:34 PM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

At this point, QS has more broader representation in the NA then the Liberals.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #312 on: December 03, 2019, 11:01:03 PM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.
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Intell
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« Reply #313 on: December 03, 2019, 11:57:16 PM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #314 on: December 04, 2019, 12:25:01 AM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

That would seem the logical solution and normally the centre is where elections are won and lost.  Problem is it seems globally and increasingly in Canada you are getting stronger left/right polarization.  All provinces west of Ontario have a centre-right vs. NDP while federally Liberals only survived by moving into NDP territory so it should in theory work.  But there is a question are we still centrists or with most going to echo chambers, are we becoming more polarized with a hollowed out middle.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #315 on: December 04, 2019, 09:22:20 AM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

It's an interesting idea, but that coalition would have similar electoral problems to the Liberals' Anglo/Allo one. Bill 21 is very popular among Francos.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #316 on: December 04, 2019, 10:51:56 AM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

It's an interesting idea, but that coalition would have similar electoral problems to the Liberals' Anglo/Allo one. Bill 21 is very popular among Francos.

Yeah, it would be a perfect fit if they just want to win Anglo & Allo votes in Montreal.

Problem is, outside of Montreal, Quebec is a fairly homogeneous place. Very hard to tap into that population when they're content with the status quo.
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Intell
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« Reply #317 on: December 05, 2019, 12:14:03 PM »

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

It's an interesting idea, but that coalition would have similar electoral problems to the Liberals' Anglo/Allo one. Bill 21 is very popular among Francos.

Yeah, it would be a perfect fit if they just want to win Anglo & Allo votes in Montreal.

Problem is, outside of Montreal, Quebec is a fairly homogeneous place. Very hard to tap into that population when they're content with the status quo.

Be an explocitly social democratic progressive Federalist Party, offering a distinction clearly to the left of the CAQ for federalist Franco’s to vote for.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #318 on: December 17, 2019, 12:33:49 PM »

District 1 By-election in Saguenay Saturday:

Jimmy Bouchard, Ind. 30.3%
Daniel Tremblay-Larouche, Ind. 28.1%
Dominic Gagnon, Alliance Saguenay 21.4%, +17.3 (party leader)
Gilles Tremblay, Democratic Renewal 10.9%, -7.6 (this is the mayor's party)
Réjean Hudon, Ind 9.3%

Seat was previously held by an independent. The mayor's party continues to have just 4/16 seats on council. The rest are independents.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #319 on: January 06, 2020, 02:38:39 PM »

Tammy Martin, NDP MLA for Cape Breton Centre has resigned her seat due to poor health. The by-election is expected to be a Liberal-NDP race.
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adma
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« Reply #320 on: January 06, 2020, 07:03:37 PM »

I presume a 2020 thread's called for.
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Krago
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« Reply #321 on: January 29, 2020, 11:53:51 AM »

I presume a 2020 thread's called for.

By your command: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=356635.0
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #322 on: February 24, 2020, 08:05:06 AM »

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #323 on: February 24, 2020, 09:59:25 AM »

Wrong thread klaxon?
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