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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Virginia 2021 Megathread
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Author Topic: Virginia 2021 Megathread  (Read 881 times)
Dad
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« on: February 14, 2020, 06:04:12 pm »

Figured we might as well start as we have our first major candidate: State Senator Amanda Chase (R) is in for Governor.

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#Bidemings2020
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2020, 06:48:42 pm »

The VA GOP still hasn't learned.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2020, 07:44:19 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 09:40:13 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.


There really just isnt any Republican politician of note right now that could win statewide. Maybe Tom Davis vs. a Moran but no one really has universal name recognition plus a positive opinion.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2020, 11:00:11 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.


There really just isnt any Republican politician of note right now that could win statewide. Maybe Tom Davis vs. a Moran but no one really has universal name recognition plus a positive opinion.

Especially when the democrats are looking at Jennifer McClellan, Jennifer Carroll Foy, and even Terry McAuliffe for crying out loud. I don't think anyone on the GOP side wants to throw their career away, even though they may be forced to do so via redistricting. Their only hope is that Fairfax succeeds in his bid, but that would be a surprise considering the strength of his competition.
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SANDSLIDE 2020🌹
wolfentoad66
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« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2020, 02:19:04 am »

Jennifer Carroll Foy for Governor!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: February 15, 2020, 12:57:45 pm »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but Iím of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, thereís already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0
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President Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2020, 09:15:45 pm »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but Iím of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, thereís already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2020, 12:27:10 pm »

Hopefully T-Mac jumps into this race for governor. He's a big FF, who will not just restore honor to the office, he also did a great job in his first term.
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Strong Candidate
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2020, 05:39:27 pm »

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slothdem
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« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2020, 09:28:19 am »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but Iím of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, thereís already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2020, 05:48:24 pm »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but Iím of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, thereís already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

If you want to talk about someone who could win in an increasingly blue state, look to Emmett Hanger of SD24. His moderate/cooperative credentials are infallible, and he's popular enough to push away a freitas-backed primary in the Shenandoah region. He's however got two problems. First, Hanger is old and 2021 wil likelyl be his last chance, but all the Dem Titans are lining up right now. Second, while the VA electorate as a whole resembles Maryland, the GOP primary is controlled unanimously by the Kentucky-esque rurals. There's little chance his bid would succeed even though his Shenandoah base may help limit the damages.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2020, 07:45:18 pm »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but Iím of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, thereís already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

The NJ half was run by people like Michael Steele, George Allen, Bob McDonnell, etc. That formula can win again.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #13 on: February 19, 2020, 07:56:18 pm »
« Edited: February 19, 2020, 08:00:38 pm by Roll Roons »


This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.

Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0

Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.

There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided.  Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.

The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.

The NJ half was run by people like Michael Steele, George Allen, Bob McDonnell, etc. That formula can win again.

Steele was from Maryland, Allen was an idiot and McDonnell is corrupt. Sure, the Virginia GOP can win if they realize that the majority of the state's is now more like the Northeast than the South, but these are not the people to win with.

At this point, I really think we're more likely to win New Jersey than Virginia in 2021.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #14 on: February 19, 2020, 08:21:46 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.


I doubt he wins the primary after this -

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lfromnj
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« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2020, 09:45:20 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.


I doubt he wins the primary after this -



It happened last year but the marriage was the most funny marriage I can think of
A
Gay
interracial
couple form Charlottesville
thats also conservative and gun toting.
Just need to find out if they smoke weed.
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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2020, 07:25:16 pm »

If the VA GOP REALLY wants to show that they're taking this race seriously, they'll go with Denver Riggleman.


I doubt he wins the primary after this -



It happened last year but the marriage was the most funny marriage I can think of
A
Gay
interracial
couple form Charlottesville
thats also conservative and gun toting.
Just need to find out if they smoke weed.

It would reach the holy trinity of butthurt if the couple were both trans gendered as well.
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