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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  The Long Road - The Ascendancy of Andrew Yang (2020-)
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Author Topic: The Long Road - The Ascendancy of Andrew Yang (2020-)  (Read 293 times)
Oregon Blue Dog
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« on: February 14, 2020, 05:15:38 pm »
« edited: February 14, 2020, 05:18:46 pm by Oregon Blue Dog »

Andrew

Source: Creative Commons Author: Gage Skidmore

After what seemed like an eon of campaigning, Super Tuesday has finally arrived. At home at last, Andrew Yang relaxed as the polls began to close across the nation. It was nice to be off the campaign trail for the first time in months. He was disappointed that his campaign hadn't made it to this point, but with the brutally fractured field, it might have been for the best. And, in any case, his spirited effort had attracted diverse support and had created a national niche for himself. For an Asian entrepreneur that no one had heard of before 2018, that wasn't bad at all.

With or without him, the Democratic field was a royal mess. Andrew, despite not endorsing anyone publicly, was rooting for Sanders - his platform was similarly progressive, and Sanders was one of the cleaner politicians out there. However, Sanders's support seemed capped at 30%, and despite a convincing Nevada win, his South Carolina loss foreshadowed the struggles he would face to unite the Democrats behind him. Meanwhile, the moderate wing was badly fractured, as Biden's campaign continued to melt down and Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg fought for the scraps. Super Tuesday would reveal much-anticipated information about where these candidates really stood, and Andrew was excited to see what would happen.

Results were already trickling in from early-closing states. Vermont and its 24 delegates had gone to Sanders in a landslide, while North Carolina was much closer. And, with polls closing on the East Coast just a few minutes ago, more fresh data was incoming for Americans to peruse. No matter who won, it was going to be a historic night.

Vermont Primary 45% Reporting
Sen. Bernie Sanders 61%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 11%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 8%
Michael Bloomberg 6%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 6%
Others 8%

North Carolina Primary 14% Reporting
Sen. Bernie Sanders 31%
Michael Bloomberg 20%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 18%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 15%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 6%
Others 10%


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Oregon Blue Dog
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Posts: 2,032
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -3.30


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« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 01:09:41 am »

Ro

Source: Wikimedia Commons Author: Slowking4

The mood at the Sanders watch party in California was hopeful, bordering on jovial. Biden’s collapse in the South was seeming to benefit Bloomberg the most, but their campaign had recieved a shot in the arm too. Sanders was holding leads in Virginia and North Carolina, while polling close in Tennessee and Texas - Clinton 2016 states that pundits claimed were off limits to the socialist Senator. Meanwhile, they were sweeping the Northeast - Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts were coming in strong for them, in spite of Warren knifing Sanders in the back by endorsing Klobuchar.

However, Ro was still nervous, as his home state (with its massive delegate cornucopia) was still voting. Early polling was inconclusive - while Sanders led, an upset by any of the moderates was very possible. He had to admit that Sanders’s minority support wasn’t the greatest, a major flaw in a state that was only 38% white. That said, Biden was in collapse, Buttigieg was also weak with minorities, and Bloomberg was slightly tainted by the race tapes, so it was truly a wildcard contest. Even if they won California, the road to the convention was a difficult one - Sanders’s support had stalled at around 30% in most states, and while the moderates were divided, they would probably secure more cumulative delegates and would likely deny Bernie the nomination - with the implicit help of the DNC. A shame.

Then, a burst of cheering snapped Ro out of his thoughts. He turned his eyes to the screen broadcasting CNN.

”It’s a little past 9:30 here on the East Coast, and we can now project multiple states. Utah and Colorado will both vote overwhelmingly for Senator Sanders with moderate voters in these states fracturing among 5 candidates. Despite securing only about 40% of the vote in both states, Sanders appears likely to take over half of the delegates here thanks to the allocation rules. We’re also prepared to call Virginia for the Senator as well - he leads Biden and Bloomberg by about 9 points. Our team is still monitoring races in the key Southern states of North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas, where Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden are all in contention. But, with seven state victories under their belts, the Bernie camp certainly has a lot to celebrate tonight. Now, we turn it over to our correspondent in California, where the polls are still open and a tight race is predicted...  ”



Outstanding Primaries
Only major candidates shown

North Carolina 88% Reporting
Sen. Bernie Sanders 27%
Michael Bloomberg 22%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 19%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 16%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 6%

Texas 77% Reporting
Michael Bloomberg 26%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 25%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 20%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 14%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 5%

Tennessee 79% Reporting
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 24%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 23%
Michael Bloomberg 23%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 16%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 7%

Arkansas 66% Reporting
Michael Bloomberg 26%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 24%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 23%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 15%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 7%

Minnesota 18% Reporting
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 36%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 26%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 11%
Fmr. VP Joe Biden 10%
Michael Bloomberg 9%
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Oregon Blue Dog
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Posts: 2,032
United States


Political Matrix
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« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2020, 01:09:19 am »

Joe

Source: Creative Commons Author: KentonNgo

Joe Biden was no stranger to defeat.

A career politician, he had seen much during his long tenure in Washington, from Watergate to the Trump Revolution. He had also faced and witnessed countless challenges and foils, from personal failures to party ones. He was there during some of the biggest drubbings in party history (Carter ‘80 and Mondale ‘84), as well as some of the most heartbreaking losses (Gore ‘00 and Clinton ‘16). He himself had had his share of flops, most notably his presidential campaigns in 1988 and 2008 and debacles like busing and the Clarence Thomas hearings. But, as Vice President to the most popular man in the Democratic Party, he hoped he could reverse the tide of his repeated shortcomings and unify his party to defeat Donald Trump.

But sadly, it wasn’t meant to be.



The map on his screen was both a condemnation and a reality check. Despite his campaign’s best efforts, he couldn’t stop the bleeding started by humiliating losses (and a quasi-win) in the first four states. He failed to win the South, the region pundits regarded as his campaign’s backstop, and was punted to fourth place in the delegate-rich state of California. He was overtaken by at least one of Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar on virtually all fronts. This was a defeat, and perhaps his most painful one yet.

Despite these losses, most of Biden’s campaign managers still believed he had a chance. Sanders wasn’t going to significantly improve his numbers, and Biden could take advantage of the splintered moderate vote to become the unity ticket at a contested convention (which now seemed inevitable). They could drag out his campaign until July, hoping against hope that some miracle would reverse the downward spiral and restore Biden’s rightful status as frontrunner, or that his moderate rivals (or better yet, Sanders) would somehow be discredited. Buttigieg and Bloomberg had already seen scrutiny, and as their numbers improved this would only grow.

But, Biden himself could see the writing on the wall. After repeated demoralizing losses, his fundraising numbers had cratered. And, while a younger, more vigorous candidate might have been able to orchestrate a comeback, the 77-year old Biden was too old and too tired to do so. Put simply, his time was up, and it was time to draw back from the mess of a primary and enjoy retirement. It would be healthy to take a break from politics for a while.

National Polling, March 8 Average
Sen. Bernie Sanders 33%
Michael Bloomberg 23%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 16%
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 9%
Tom Steyer 7%
Undecided 12%

2020 General Election Polling (Morning Consult)
Generic Democrat 45%
Pres. Donald Trump (i) 43%
Undecided 12%

Pres. Donald Trump (i) 46%
Sen. Bernie Sanders 44%
Undecided 10%

Pres. Donald Trump (i) 45%
Michael Bloomberg 45%
Undecided 10%

Pres. Donald Trump (i) 45%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 44%
Undecided 11%

Sen. Amy Klobuchar 47%
Pres. Donald Trump (i) 43%
Undecided 10%


2020 Delegate Counts*
Sen. Bernie Sanders 568 delegates
Michael Bloomberg 328 delegates
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden 267 delegates (dropped out)
Mayor Pete Buttigieg 240 delegates
Sen. Amy Klobuchar 81 delegates
Tom Steyer 21 delegates
Sen. Elizabeth Warren 8 delegates (dropped out - endorsed Klobuchar)

*I mistakenly used the delegate counts on YAPMS, so they are slightly off.
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