Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol

Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nah likely 51-48 or 51-47 Trump.

More like Trump 57 Bernie 42

Even Abbot couldn't get that margin against a no name candidate.

Trump only has to yell socialist a few times and those Williamson County, Hays County and Fort Bend County Democratic-leaning indies will come running into his arms. If only other Republicans before him had thought to attack their opponents as socialists...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie would be one of the worst candidates for the Democrats' chances in TX this year.  Yes, the youth vote may like him, but he'll also draw more conservatives out to help Trump.

Trump by at least 10 points.

Conservatives...turn out at maximum levels for all elections no matter who it’s against. It seems like everyone is pulling these wild “Bernie is going to do so badly against Trump in the suburbs” memes out of their asses when there is zero polling evidence to back that up. He is polling just as well as Biden and Bloomberg and far better than Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg are against Trump