Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.
You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.
Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.
And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol