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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
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Poll
Question: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
#1
Yes
 
#2
Maybe yes
 
#3
Maybe no
 
#4
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 131

Author Topic: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?  (Read 1006 times)
Dalfyrie
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« Reply #25 on: February 14, 2020, 06:40:01 pm »

If Latino, young people and poor whites vote, yes.
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BP🌹
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« Reply #26 on: February 14, 2020, 07:06:33 pm »

We've established that suburbz hate socialism, so it'll revert back to Bush margins.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #27 on: February 14, 2020, 07:09:38 pm »

No. No Democrat could. This is not the year it flips, even if it continues moving left.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #28 on: February 14, 2020, 07:13:39 pm »

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2020, 07:19:57 pm »

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.


If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2020, 07:29:55 pm »

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol




Oh, wow, you actually agree with me that Texas is more likely to flip than Iowa. I guess people can learn.


If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily


How exactly in Michael Bloomberg an “excellent fit” for Texas? I’m not saying he’s an awful fit but how is someone who supports very tough gun control legislations an excellent fit
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2020, 08:36:11 pm »

If Micheal Bloomberg is the nominee I would actually agree , cause Micheal Bloomberg is an excellent fit for Texas while Biden was the only candidate who was a great fit to win Iowa in a general election .

If Bernie is the nominee well it won’t matter cause he will lose both easily


How exactly in Michael Bloomberg an “excellent fit” for Texas? I’m not saying he’s an awful fit but how is someone who supports very tough gun control legislations an excellent fit

Not to mention that this entire "Candidate X is an excellent/poor fit for state Y and will therefore do significantly better/worse in said state than Candidate Z, who is a much worse/better fit for the state" line of reasoning is inane for obvious reasons.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #32 on: February 14, 2020, 08:51:42 pm »

I respect that the op meant this question in a serious way but come on....

It’d take a scandal of biblical proportions combined with a total collapse of the economy
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SWE
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« Reply #33 on: February 15, 2020, 01:14:49 am »

In a really contrived scenario yeah, but realistically, no
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Sbane
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« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2020, 01:21:09 am »

Nah likely 51-48 or 51-47 Trump.
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SN2903
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« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2020, 02:29:07 am »

More like Trump 57 Bernie 42
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #36 on: February 15, 2020, 02:36:13 am »


He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate
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SN2903
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« Reply #37 on: February 15, 2020, 02:38:37 am »


He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate
No way Bernie keeps Texas within 10 pts. He is a terrible fit for the state. The polls are not measuring how unpopular socialism is. Trump would demolish him politically.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #38 on: February 15, 2020, 02:38:53 am »

This is how Trump will do in Texas against the main Dem candidates


Vs Bernie: Trump by 8
Vs Mayor Pete: Trump by 6.5
Vs Amy: Trump by 6
Vs Biden: Trump by 5
vs Bloomberg: Trump by 3
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #39 on: February 15, 2020, 02:40:27 am »


He is not gonna choose Rashida Tlaib as his running mate
No way Bernie keeps Texas within 10 pts. He is a terrible fit for the state. The polls are not measuring how unpopular socialism is. Trump would demolish him politically.


Sure he would but Trump will also be mired in a couple of self-inflicted controversies which will hurt him which will make Trump win TX against Bernie by 8 points.

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Sbane
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« Reply #40 on: February 15, 2020, 03:06:52 am »


Even Abbot couldn't get that margin against a no name candidate.
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Intell
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« Reply #41 on: February 15, 2020, 03:11:16 am »

Bernie will do best in Texas, buttigeg worst.
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Donnie
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« Reply #42 on: February 15, 2020, 04:16:18 am »

NO. A socialist jew from Vermont winning in Texas? Come on people be real...
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #43 on: February 15, 2020, 09:16:54 am »

NO. A socialist jew from Vermont winning in Texas? Come on people be real...

Of course now he cant, but 2008, the wave didnt happen until the last minute, October 2008. But, Castro would have been a better Candidate than Hegar who will lose to Cornyn
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When Tables Deserve To Die
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« Reply #44 on: February 15, 2020, 01:49:12 pm »

No (Normal)
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AGA
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« Reply #45 on: February 15, 2020, 01:50:31 pm »

Absolutely not.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #46 on: February 15, 2020, 07:11:47 pm »


Even Abbot couldn't get that margin against a no name candidate.

Trump only has to yell socialist a few times and those Williamson County, Hays County and Fort Bend County Democratic-leaning indies will come running into his arms. If only other Republicans before him had thought to attack their opponents as socialists...
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TDAS04
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« Reply #47 on: February 15, 2020, 07:41:37 pm »

I doubt any Democrat would at this time.  They’d all probably improve on the 2016 margin, however.
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sg0508
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« Reply #48 on: February 15, 2020, 09:52:47 pm »

Bernie would be one of the worst candidates for the Democrats' chances in TX this year.  Yes, the youth vote may like him, but he'll also draw more conservatives out to help Trump.

Trump by at least 10 points.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #49 on: February 15, 2020, 09:57:25 pm »

Bernie would be one of the worst candidates for the Democrats' chances in TX this year.  Yes, the youth vote may like him, but he'll also draw more conservatives out to help Trump.

Trump by at least 10 points.

Conservatives...turn out at maximum levels for all elections no matter who it’s against. It seems like everyone is pulling these wild “Bernie is going to do so badly against Trump in the suburbs” memes out of their asses when there is zero polling evidence to back that up. He is polling just as well as Biden and Bloomberg and far better than Warren, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg are against Trump
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