Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
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  Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
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Poll
Question: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?
#1
Yes
 
#2
Maybe yes
 
#3
Maybe no
 
#4
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 132

Author Topic: Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas against Trump?  (Read 1585 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« on: February 14, 2020, 01:30:26 AM »

Can Bernie Sanders carry Texas in a General Election against Trump? He is only down by 2 points (47-45) in the new University of TX/Texas Tribune poll. You don't need many undecideds to break in favor of the Dems for it to happen - or alternatively you don't need that much additional voter registration and turnout.

Remember that TX is a very young state, with huge un-tapped reserves of non-voters and low-propensity Democratic-leaning non-white voters... And Trump has had consistently poor approval ratings in Texas...
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2020, 01:35:00 AM »

Could he yes but its Likely R and that poll general I believe has a Dem lean.


Also the fact is Bernie has not been hit anywhere hard as the other candidates , once he is he will fall in general election polls . Bernie has a lot of dirt that hasnt been used against him yet
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2020, 01:58:40 AM »

In a recession he could, but under normal conditions, a surprisingly close loss is probably the best he could do.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 02:34:18 AM »

No, very unlikely

Yeah, you have this poll which has Trump leading by only 2 BUT if you average the 4 most recent TX polls we have Trump is leading Sanders by a more confortable 6 points margin, let’s be clear the idea that Trump would win TX by double digits against Sanders because mUh sOcIaLiSm is absurd, TX is trending to the left and Trump is far from beloved in the state but in the end, considering Sanders vulnerability on energy issues and his love for foreign communist, anti-American dictators Trump would probably win TX by a healthy margin (something like 52/46 would be relatively reasonable)
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McGarnagle
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« Reply #4 on: February 14, 2020, 03:16:52 AM »

Possibly but it would be super close

Texas might not flip for another four to eight years
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2020, 04:48:56 AM »

I don't think he will, but it's possible. Sometimes the trend is stronger than expected, and especially if the national environment is good for Dems, it could happen. Most likely is a narrow loss, then Texas becomes a swing state in future elections.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: February 14, 2020, 06:20:32 AM »

Probably not barring a recession, and even then it would be difficult. Voted no.
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UWS
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« Reply #7 on: February 14, 2020, 06:28:27 AM »
« Edited: February 14, 2020, 06:32:39 AM by UWS »

No, very unlikely

Yeah, you have this poll which has Trump leading by only 2 BUT if you average the 4 most recent TX polls we have Trump is leading Sanders by a more confortable 6 points margin, let’s be clear the idea that Trump would win TX by double digits against Sanders because mUh sOcIaLiSm is absurd, TX is trending to the left and Trump is far from beloved in the state but in the end, considering Sanders vulnerability on energy issues and his love for foreign communist, anti-American dictators Trump would probably win TX by a healthy margin (something like 52/46 would be relatively reasonable)

Bernie is a bad fit for Texas. Just like Beto O’Rourke he wants to abolish ICE while Texas is on the frontline of the border crisis, which will give Trump an opportunity to label him as an extremist and that is part of the reasons why Cruz won in 2018 because O’Rourke was obviously too liberal for Texas.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: February 14, 2020, 06:28:48 AM »

No
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slothdem
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« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2020, 09:17:47 AM »

No, but he could lose close, which would be NOT GREAT for Trump.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2020, 09:20:07 AM »

Of the Democratic candidates, he is one of the less likely candidates that would carry it.

It's not a secret that Bernie's strength is not in the Sun Belt. If he is nominated, the path to the White House is through the upper Midwest. Biden and Bloomberg would be strongest in states like Arizona and Texas, though no Democratic nominee is likely to carry Texas regardless.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #11 on: February 14, 2020, 09:26:35 AM »

No it’s not going to happen.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #12 on: February 14, 2020, 10:49:30 AM »

Nope it would be safe R against him
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SN2903
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« Reply #13 on: February 14, 2020, 11:31:30 AM »

Texas is Titanium R if Bernie is the nominee. Trump wins it by 13-17 pts. Polls are underestimating how big Trump would win if Bernie is the nominee. Socialism is very very unpopular.
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SN2903
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« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2020, 11:33:06 AM »

In a recession he could, but under normal conditions, a surprisingly close loss is probably the best he could do.
There isn't gonna be a recession. Get over it.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2020, 01:43:21 PM »

Absolutely not. I think he’s an awful fit for Texas

Texas is not voting for someone that far to the left

Honestly I think trump would do better than his 2016 numbers against Bernie in Texas
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2020, 03:17:32 PM »

No
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2020, 04:31:31 PM »

Yes, we can very well have a 1976 map where WI, IA, OH goes R and TX, FL and AZ goes D. IL, NY and Cali are Safe D. Latinos are the base of Dems
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2020, 05:09:23 PM »

Probably not but anything's possible. I think Trump probably wins 51-46 in Texas maybe 50-48 tops if you're a Democrat.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: February 14, 2020, 05:18:17 PM »

2016 taught me to take nothing for granted.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: February 14, 2020, 05:49:35 PM »

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.
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« Reply #21 on: February 14, 2020, 05:58:07 PM »

Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably not, but he’s absolutely more likely to win TX than IA/ME-02 and undoubtedly more likely to win TX than to lose VA. My current guess is that he loses the state by 2-4 points, but not more than that. So Lean R if I had to rate it.

You’d think all those TX polls would deter people from smugly declaring states like GA and FL Likely/Safe R with Sanders or posting simplistic "TX/FL/VA = South = Sun Belt = suburbs = Romney/Clinton voters + minorities = Sanders bad fit = Safe R with Bernie" takes, but obviously that’s not going to happen.

Trump doesn’t poll good in IA either . The only places he seems to poll good is in FL lol.


And IA is not more likely to flip than TX lol


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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2020, 06:23:41 PM »

Forget it.
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Dalfyrie
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« Reply #23 on: February 14, 2020, 06:40:01 PM »

If Latino, young people and poor whites vote, yes.
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BP🌹
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« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2020, 07:06:33 PM »

We've established that suburbz hate socialism, so it'll revert back to Bush margins.
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