Senate and Gubernatorial results in 94 if HW Bush was re-elected

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say

Senate:

Dems Gain: MN, WA

GOP Gain : OK(Special), AZ, ME

Note : No special election in TX In 93 so that seat stays Dem

Overall: R+1( Assuming Mitchell still retires)


Governor

Dem Gain : AK, CT, ME

GOP Gain : ID, KS, OK, WY


Overall : R+1


The Map pretty much seemed to favor the GOP this year but they probably lose 10-15 seats in the House

[😥]

I created scenario about a month ago what would be if George HW Bush was reelected in 1992

And this is my version of 1994:

Senate
Before election: 57D-43R (Bentsen remained Senator from Texas)

No special election in Tennesse, because Al Gore remained Senator

D gain: MN, VT, WA
R gain: OK-s, ME, TN

Changes from real life
AZ: DeConcini run and was reelected
MI: Riegle Jr. run and was reelected
MN: Wynia (D) defeated Grams (R)
OH: One of Representatives (maybe Marcy Kaptur) (D) defeated DeWine (R)
PA: Wofford (D) win against Santorum (R)
VT: Jan Backus (D) defeated Jeffords (R)
WA: Norm Dicks (D) run and defeated Gorton (R)

After election: 57D-43R
Note. Shelby and Campbell wouldn't change parties

House of Representatives would remain in the Democratic hands

Governors

D gain: AK, AZ, CT, ME, SC
R gain: KS, OK, WY
D+2

Changes from real life
AL: Folsom (D) reelected
AZ: Basha (D) defeated Symington (R)
CT: Curry (D) elected
ID: EchoHawk (D) elected
ME: Brennan (D) elected
NY: Cuomo (D) reelected
NM: King (D) reelected
PA: Singel (D) elected
RI: York (D) elected
SC: Theodore (D) elected
TN: Bredesen (D) elected
TX: Richards (D) reelected

1996
Senate and House remained in Democratic hands

Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) in landslide defeated VP Dan Quayle (R-IN)/Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS)

[@Nord_Fulbright]

In the Congress it would probably look more like this
Senate Balance Pre-Elex: 57D-43R
Arizona: Dennis DeConcini Retires Due to the Keating Five Scandal Like IRL and Jon Kyl still wins
Florida: Connie Mack Narrowly Wins reelection against Hugh Rodham By 1-5%
Maine: Olympia Snowe Wins by a Landslide
Michigan: Don Reigle Runs And Narrowly Wins against Spencer Abraham (Probably By 1-2%)
Minnesota: Without The Wave this will become Democratic
Ohio: Mike DeWine Still Wins just by a more narrow margin
Oklahoma: James Inhofe Wins No matter what
Pennsylvania: Harris Wofford Narrowly Loses To Fmr. Atty Gen. Dick Thronburgh (Rematch)
Tennessee: James Sasser Loses To Bill  Frist By A Same Margin as In IRL
Texas: Lloyd Bentsen Narrowly Loses against Fmr. Gov. Bill Clements By Less Than One Percent
Vermont: Jim Jeffords Wins By 5% Against Jan Backus
Washington: Slade Gorton Narrowly Wins Reelection Against Fmr. Gov. Booth Gardner
GOP Pickups- AZ, ME, PA, OK-S, TN, TX
DEM Pickups- MN,
Senate Balance After Elex 52D-48R
Assuming If Shelby Stays A Democrat
House Of Representatives 250D-185R
R+8
Democrats Keep The Chamber

Governors Races Would Look More like this
Alamaba: Jim Folsom Would lose Reelection to Fob James Like IRL
Alaska: Tony Knowles Still Wins
Arizona: Fife Symington Loses By 5-7% To Basha
Connecticut: Bill Curry Defeats Lowell Weicker
Florida: Lawton Chiles loses to Jeb Bush (Go Figure)
Georgia: Zell Miller Wins Reelection by a Landslide
Idaho: Phil Batt still wins
Illinois: Jim Edgar Wins Reelection by a comfortable margin
Kansas: Bill Graves Still wins Albeit by a comfortable margin
Maine: Joe Brennan Wins
New Mexico: Bruce King loses To Gary Johnson By a very close margin
New York: Mario Cuomo Wins By a Landslide
Oklahoma: Frank Keating Wins by a narrow margin (If The independent and the Democrat vote doesn't split)
Pennsylvania: Tom Ridge Wins Like In IRL
Rhode Island: Sundlun Wins Reelection
South Carolina: Nick Theodore Defeats David Beasley
South Dakota: Bill Janklow Loses to Jim Beddow
Tennessee: Don Sundquist Wins
Texas: George W. Bush Defeats Anne Richards (Again Go Figure)
Wyoming: Jim Gerringer Still Wins
GOP Pickups- AL, FL, ID, KS, NM, OK, PA, TN, TX
DEM Pickups- AK, AZ, CT, ME, SC, SD
Governorships Before 30D-20R
Governorships After 27D-23R

[voice_of_resistance]

The House was beforehand 258-176. I think the following districts would stay Democratic for at least one more cycle:

AZ-06
CA-01
CA-49
FL-15
GA-07
GA-10
ID-01
IL-05
IN-02
IN-08
IA-04
KS-02
KS-04
KY-01
ME-01
MI-08
MN-01
NE-02
NV-01
NH-02
NJ-08
NY-01
NC-02
NC-03
NC-04
OH-06
OH-19
OK-02
OK-04
OR-05
PA-13
TN-03
TN-04
TX-09
TX-13
UT-02
VA-11
WA-01
WA-02
WA-03
WA-04
WA-05
WA-09
WI-01

44 seats

Seats that would flip from R to D against irl
AR-04
CA-22
CT-05
MA-03
MA-06
NY-04
NY-19
NY-25
PA-21
TX-23
WI-03

Seats that would still flip from D to R in the House include:
FL-01
GA-08
IN-04
MS-01

Essentially, a slowed-down version of the realignment.

In 1995, the Dems had 204 seats, so add 44 for the seats that wouldn't flip, and then add another 11. 204 + 55 = 259-176. That is my general estimate.

[538Electoral]

Republican Revolution would be delayed.

[Lechasseur]

The Democrats would still hold on to the House and the Senate

Results that I think change in this scenario:
Senate:
Pre-election balance: 57D-43R, with the Senate results from 1992 basically being the same:

MI: Riegle still retires, but another Dem probably beats Abraham
MN: the seat flips to the Democrats
PA: Harris Wofford is reelected
TX: if Lloyd Bentsen runs for reelection, he wins. If not, it's a different story. I'll assume he runs for reelection and wins
VT: Jim Jeffords may well end up losing
WA: a stronger opponent probably runs against Gorton and he loses

Oh, and Richard Shelby and Ben Nighthorse Campbell don't switch parties and thus stay Democrats.

Senate: 55D-45R, Democratic majority, Tom Daschle becomes Senate Majority Leader, replacing the retiring George Mitchell. The Dems still have a net loss of 2 seats simply because they were already kind of maxed out (kind of like 2018 IRL)

Governors:
Pre-election balance: 30D-18R-2I (Jim Florio gets reelected in NJ in 1993):
Alabama: Jim Folsom wins reelection
Connecticut: Bill Curry wins
Idaho: Larry EchoHawk wins
Maine: Joseph Brennan wins and makes a comeback as governor
New Mexico: Bruce King wins reelection
New York: Mario Cuomo wins reelection
Rhode Island: Myrth York wins
South Carolina: Nick Theodore wins
Texas: Ann Richards wins reelection, George W. Bush doesn't run

Governors: 29D-21R yet again, a net loss of 1 seat for the Democrats simply because they were already kind of maxed out

But the Dems would most certainly make gains in the House. Tom Foley stays Speaker of the House with an increased majority for 1 more term before retiring after the 1996 election in favor of Dick Gephardt.

[President Biden Democrat]

I would say

Senate:

Dems Gain: MN, WA

GOP Gain : OK(Special), AZ, ME

Note : No special election in TX In 93 so that seat stays Dem

Overall: R+1( Assuming Mitchell still retires)


Governor

Dem Gain : AK, CT, ME

GOP Gain : ID, KS, OK, WY


Overall : R+1


The Map pretty much seemed to favor the GOP this year but they probably lose 10-15 seats in the House

Sounds about right

[Orwell]

In the Congress it would probably look more like this
Senate Balance Pre-Elex: 57D-43R
Arizona: Dennis DeConcini Retires Due to the Keating Five Scandal Like IRL and Jon Kyl still wins
Florida: Connie Mack Narrowly Wins reelection against Hugh Rodham By 1-5%
Maine: Olympia Snowe Wins by a Landslide
Michigan: Don Reigle Runs And Narrowly Wins against Spencer Abraham (Probably By 1-2%)
Minnesota: Without The Wave this will become Democratic
Ohio: Mike DeWine Still Wins just by a more narrow margin
Oklahoma: James Inhofe Wins No matter what
Pennsylvania: Harris Wofford Narrowly Loses To Fmr. Atty Gen. Dick Thronburgh (Rematch)
Tennessee: James Sasser Loses To Bill  Frist By A Same Margin as In IRL
Texas: Lloyd Bentsen Narrowly Loses against Fmr. Gov. Bill Clements By Less Than One Percent
Vermont: Jim Jeffords Wins By 5% Against Jan Backus
Washington: Slade Gorton Narrowly Wins Reelection Against Fmr. Gov. Booth Gardner
GOP Pickups- AZ, ME, PA, OK-S, TN, TX
DEM Pickups- MN,
Senate Balance After Elex 52D-48R
Assuming If Shelby Stays A Democrat
House Of Representatives 250D-185R
R+8
Democrats Keep The Chamber

Governors Races Would Look More like this
Alamaba: Jim Folsom Would lose Reelection to Fob James Like IRL
Alaska: Tony Knowles Still Wins
Arizona: Fife Symington Loses By 5-7% To Basha
Connecticut: Bill Curry Defeats Lowell Weicker
Florida: Lawton Chiles loses to Jeb Bush (Go Figure)
Georgia: Zell Miller Wins Reelection by a Landslide
Idaho: Phil Batt still wins
Illinois: Jim Edgar Wins Reelection by a comfortable margin
Kansas: Bill Graves Still wins Albeit by a comfortable margin
Maine: Joe Brennan Wins
New Mexico: Bruce King loses To Gary Johnson By a very close margin
New York: Mario Cuomo Wins By a Landslide
Oklahoma: Frank Keating Wins by a narrow margin (If The independent and the Democrat vote doesn't split)
Pennsylvania: Tom Ridge Wins Like In IRL
Rhode Island: Sundlun Wins Reelection
South Carolina: Nick Theodore Defeats David Beasley
South Dakota: Bill Janklow Loses to Jim Beddow
Tennessee: Don Sundquist Wins
Texas: George W. Bush Defeats Anne Richards (Again Go Figure)
Wyoming: Jim Gerringer Still Wins
GOP Pickups- AL, FL, ID, KS, NM, OK, PA, TN, TX
DEM Pickups- AK, AZ, CT, ME, SC, SD
Governorships Before 30D-20R
Governorships After 27D-23R

What the hell did I just read, why would Chiles lose to Bush when he beat him IRL in 1994. +Chiles +6-8

Richard's is a pretty popular Governor and she would probably beat the GOP nominee in 1994 Richards +2

Folsom Jr. lost by less than 1% IRL in a Republican wave year Folsom +5-7

I agree with Knowles still winning

I agree with Basha winning but I don't agree with the 5-7% margin I'd say it would be closer. Basha +2-3

Weicker wasn't even a candidate, in Connecticut so that's a non-starter but Bill Curry lost by a small margin so I'd flip this one as well.

I agree with Zell Miller

I think Idaho could be really close, but it's still probably a Batt +1-2 thing.

I agree with Illinois it's a lost cause

Kansas too is probably not going to flip

I think King still wins in Maine

I agree with your pick in New Mexico

I agree with your Cuomo pick

Yea Oklahoma probably with the split

Tom Ridge would probably lose, he's weak on abortion for the GOP and lost 12% of the vote in 1994 to the Constitution party nominee

Sundlund lost renomination by 30 points OTL I think that he still loses and the Dem nominee wins the general

I agree with Nick Theodore winning

I think Janklow could lose, but I think it's pretty unlikely

I'd say flip Tennessee Gubernatorial election

Yea Geringer still probably wins


Senate

Yea AZ still probably flips

I think a stronger Dem runs in 1994 because Rodham is just some guy. I'd say Buddy MacKay and he beats Mack.

Snowe wins by like a 55-42 margin

Riegle wins by a big margin

I agree with Minnesota

With no Independent candidate + a Dem wave then I think DeWine loses

I agree with the Inhofe take

Wofford won by 10 in 1991 I don't see why he loses to Dick when he barely lost to Santorum

Tennessee would be much closer than OTL

Why would Bentsen a popular war hero lose a race that he won by 19 points in the GOP wave of 1988

I agree with the Jeffords take I think he could defect though

Gorton barely won against a nobody in 1994 OTL he loses by a significant margin