Key Market Indicator Points to Trump Winning a Second Term
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  Key Market Indicator Points to Trump Winning a Second Term
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Author Topic: Key Market Indicator Points to Trump Winning a Second Term  (Read 13345 times)
Frodo
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« on: February 13, 2020, 09:42:37 AM »

I don't think I've heard of the 'Misery Index' before:

Trump will win a 2nd presidential term if this roughly 50-year-old gauge of the economy holds true

The ‘Misery Index’ is at a reading of 5.9%

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2020, 05:59:45 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2020, 08:36:49 PM by KaiserDave »

Well, let's pack it up then.

EDIT: Did Yellowhammer think I was serious or humorous? The world will never know.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2020, 10:45:03 PM »

Anyone can back-engineer an economic metric that has correctly predicted previous Presidential elections.

Also, chronically low inflation for the last few decades doesn't mean reelection has become more likely for all modern Presidents. The idea that "misery" was supposedly only about average at the time of the 2008 election is completely insane.
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AGA
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« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2020, 10:47:11 PM »

Then why did Gore and Clinton lose? Oh wait...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2020, 05:53:38 AM »

...and how did Reagan get re-elected when the misery index was above average?

Or FDR in 1936 and 1940?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2020, 06:48:39 AM »

I love these miserable factoids that get dragged out every election. "After this economist tortures data points, he came up with a magic formula that predicts EVERY single election in the past thirty years, aside from all the elections in which it doesn't remotely do that".
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parochial boy
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2020, 06:59:22 AM »

I love these miserable factoids that get dragged out every election. "After this economist tortures data points, he came up with a magic formula that predicts EVERY single election in the past thirty years, aside from all the elections in which it doesn't remotely do that".

Only men named François are capable of winning French presidential elections for the left, but if the right nominates a man called François, he won't even make it to the second round. Coincidence? I think not 🧐
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2020, 07:01:24 AM »

I love these miserable factoids that get dragged out every election. "After this economist tortures data points, he came up with a magic formula that predicts EVERY single election in the past thirty years, aside from all the elections in which it doesn't remotely do that".

Only men named François are capable of winning French presidential elections for the left, but if the right nominates a man called François, he won't even make it to the second round. Coincidence? I think not 🧐
Idea: get someone by the name of Francois Francois to run for president of France and see them win the nominations of both the left and the right together on route to a handsome, magnificent win in the first round.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2020, 09:47:56 AM »

I love these miserable factoids that get dragged out every election. "After this economist tortures data points, he came up with a magic formula that predicts EVERY single election in the past thirty years, aside from all the elections in which it doesn't remotely do that".

Only men named François are capable of winning French presidential elections for the left, but if the right nominates a man called François, he won't even make it to the second round. Coincidence? I think not 🧐
Idea: get someone by the name of Francois Francois to run for president of France and see them win the nominations of both the left and the right together on route to a handsome, magnificent win in the first round.

RIP Flawless Beautiful Macron Sad
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2020, 06:27:01 AM by DC Al Fine »

The misery index is pretty simple. It could be even simpler, because changes in the unemployment rate have similar predictive validity.

Of course no model will reliably predict the winner of close elections, and those that purport to are fraudulent. Incumbent share of the national two-party vote is a better metric to target, but obviously of less interest given that four of the five past elections had small popular vote margins and in half of those the EV went the other way.

That said, in some elections a poor economy all but predetermines the outcome (e.g. 1992, 2008). There are others in which its role is much less clear (e.g. 2016).

As of April, my expectation is that 2020 will belong to the former category. If this bears out, Trump will not just lose but lose badly.

The question of course is; to what extent will voters give Trump (and other world leaders up for re-election in the next 12 months or so) a pass on the economy due to the pandemic?

I'd suggest a lot of people will give their leaders a break, at least inititially, due to the unique cause of this recession, and only start looking for blood later when the recovery takes a while to materialize. (e.g. I think Justin Trudeau's minority government should be a lot more worried about a 2022 election than a spring 2021 one). Whether that's enough to save Trump's bacon is another story, but at minimum I'd suggest he'll do a lot better than what we'd expect for an incumbent president in a "normal" double digit unemployment election.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2020, 02:26:28 PM »

might be time for Republicans to start getting more worried about Texas

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2020, 06:10:59 AM »

As CNN pointed out that the gap will close, but it's still a 278 map
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2020, 10:34:24 AM »

Well, Donald Trump won re-election, but only in his own mind and within his cult. The economic indicators cannot hide the bungled response to COVID-19, his endorsement of police brutality (as if that makes police work more effective), tear-gassing protesters so that he could make that infamous photo-op holding a Bible that he neither reads nor heeds (he does little reading) in front of a church that he does not attend. Then there is one scandal after another. Multitudes thought in 2020 that Donald Trump was a mistake as an electoral choice that didn't seem so dreadful in 2016.

Trump did better than expected, but he still ended up with too few popular votes to win 270 electoral votes.   
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Biden his time
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2021, 02:09:47 PM »

The Misery Index was right this time
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2021, 05:09:09 PM »

The Misery Index was right this time
any indicator is just an indicator. Its not written down on any stone that it must be absolute
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