2020 South Korean legislative election (April 15th)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any last-minute developments in this campaign that might materially impact the result?

[jaichind]

One thing that is fun about ROK elections is that the leaders of all parties are being televised live watching the result of exit polls.

2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqKifMWqbzw

2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS_M7CRdlPE&nohtml5=False

Not sure if I can find a live stream in time to watch the 2020 one live

[mgop]

election in the middle of pandemic? truly the worst korea.

[Antonio the Sixth]

election in the middle of pandemic? truly the worst korea.

South Korea has more or less successfully controlled the spread of the pandemic thanks to mass testing. If the US and Europe had done the same, we could be holding elections too.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1250336143792435200

Damn.

Question is: who will benefit from higher turnout? Is this some sort of way to say "thank you" to incumbent president for dealing with coronavirus crisis?

[bigic]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1250353466259562496

[jaichind]

Well, at least the Center-Right bloc is well above 100 seats avoiding a 2008 like landslide where the Liberal camp was pushed below 100 seats. 

[jaichind]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSIHg-wlonA

is the 2020 political leaders reaction to exit polls.  Obviously the Democratic Party bloc leaders were happy with the result.

It is DPK-TCP 153-177 with DPK 137-157 and TCP 16-20 on the PR slate
Likewise it is UFP-FKP with 107-131 with UFP 91-111 and FKP 16-20 on the PR slate
Justice has 4-8 and 4-6 on the PR slate which implies Justice got 0-2 on FPTP
PP got 3-5 on the PR slate
PPL go 0-4 and 0-3 on the PR slate which implies PPL got 0-1 FPTP
ODP got 0-3 on the PR slate

It seems ODP is doing worse than expected on the PR slate.  UFP getting 90-110 out of 253 FPTP seats seems better than expected but I guess the old Conservative heartland in Eastern ROK came through for the UFP 

[jaichind]

TCP and FKP tied in PR vote with ODP doing a lot worse than expected makes it seem like the DPK victory over UFP in FPTP seats is mostly about Justice Party PR voter tactical voting for DPK just like in 2016.  The DPK PR vote is not well distributed with a massive but mostly wasted vote lead in Gwangju and Jeolla so a TCP-FKP tie in PR vote should in theory give UFP the edge over DPK in the rest of ROK.  In this case the Justice Party PR vote came to the rescue of the DPK giving it a solid victory in FPTP seats, especially in urban battlegrounds where Justice Party is stronger.

Back in 2016 Saenuri Party only won 105 FPTP seats.  This time UFP is at 91-111 which means they mostly kept their strongholds from 2016 with very minor losses.  The Center-Right is well set up to make a recovery from the Park disaster in a post-Moon era.

[jaichind]

MBS exit poll seems similar to the SBS exit poll with DPK-TCP 155-178 and  UFP-FKP at 107-130.  KBS exit poll is more favorable to the Center-Right with DPK-TCP at 153-170 and UFP-FKP at 116-133

[H. Ross Peron]

Liberals have mainly been trying to shift blame to the Shincheonji Christian cult, that violated the quarentine and was almost single handedly responsibile for massively inflating the outbreak. The Cult is very close to the Conservatives (conservatives love these weird christian cults, which have a ton of followers in SK). Evangelical Christians have always been very conservative in SK, while Catholic/Buddhist anti-evangelical resentment feeds into them leaning liberal.

This isn't wholly accurate. Shincheonji is generally regarded as a heretical cult by *other Christian denominations* (my church's pastor has warned of them on various occasions). Moreover, while there is a strong Christian Right in South Korea fed by anti-communism and increasingly fears of a sexual revolution, Protestants don't vote anymore right-wing than their Catholic and Buddhist counterparts. While Syngman Rhee was a Methodist, none of the subsequent military dictator Presidents (Park Chung Hee, Chun Doo Hwan, and Roh Tae Woo) were Protestants. If you look at religious statistics, Protestantism is most prevalent in the Seoul region and the Jeolla province which is precisely where liberals are the strongest. Conversely, Buddhists are much stronger in the Gyeongsang provinces which has been a conservative stronghold for a generation.

[jaichind]

On SBS so far FPTP seats in terms of leads/won seems to be not that bad for UFP.  It is DPK 108 UFP 97.  I think the outstanding areas are more in urban areas which will clearly lean DPK.

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at DPK 118 UFP 97 in FPTP in terms of leads/won as newer results have a clear DPK lean.  Still a solid performance so far for UFP given the circumstances.  

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at DPK 133 UFP 88 in FPFP seats as the results converge toward exit polls

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 134 UFP 96 Justice 1 in FPFP seats and FKP 19 TCP 18 Justice 5 in PR section.

[urutzizu]

This isn't wholly accurate. Shincheonji is generally regarded as a heretical cult by *other Christian denominations* (my church's pastor has warned of them on various occasions). Moreover, while there is a strong Christian Right in South Korea fed by anti-communism and increasingly fears of a sexual revolution, Protestants don't vote anymore right-wing than their Catholic and Buddhist counterparts. While Syngman Rhee was a Methodist, none of the subsequent military dictator Presidents (Park Chung Hee, Chun Doo Hwan, and Roh Tae Woo) were Protestants. If you look at religious statistics, Protestantism is most prevalent in the Seoul region and the Jeolla province which is precisely where liberals are the strongest. Conversely, Buddhists are much stronger in the Gyeongsang provinces which has been a conservative stronghold for a generation.

It depends. I was not actually referring to Protestants as a whole, but specifically to "Evangelicals". Roh Tae Woo was a Protestant, or at least converted at some later point in life, as far as I understand? And the same goes for all of the conservative sixth republic Presidents, save Parks daughter:  Kim Young-sam, and Lee Myung Bak were Prostentant, as well as Interim President Hwang Kyo-ahn. Both of the latter have (credibly) been accused of anti-Buddhist sentiment.  

You are right about the regional distribution, but I think correlation and causation may be misleading here. While they are a larger section of the population, the vast majority of Cheolla is still non-protestant, and the majority of protestants do not live there, but rather in Seoul/gyeonggi-do, which, as a whole is during a normal election cycle basically 50/50.

If we look at the exit poll from 2017 we see:
Protestant:39%/22%/26%  Moon/Hong/Ahn
Catholic: 47%/20%/22%
Buddhist: 34%/36%/19%

Which does appear to confirm which you said (Although Moon did underperform among protestants compared to the Country as a whole). However that was also an election where LKP support evaporated in Seoul, while it held on in Gyeongsang. And it was also an election where Hong was Buddhist, while Moon was Christian (Catholic). If we look at other elections, 2007 for instance, where Lee Myung Bak overperformed in Seoul (for obvious reasons), and where the Conservative Candidate was a devout and, arguably, openly sectarian Protestant , he is reported of having won as much as 80% of the Christian vote, and it is safe to say an even higher share among protestants.

So overall, Yes, I agree it is wrong to presume that Protestants are necessarily more right-leaning. It depends quite considerably, on the Candidates appeal in Seoul/Gyeonggi-do, and whether the Candidate is a devout protestant him/herself. Evangelicals, specifically, do seem to be right-leaning, and that is the reason why the Anti-Buddhist sentiment is, with a few exceptions, (and most of the hardline anti Homosexuality stuff) only really found on the right.

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 143 UFP 97 Justice 1 in FPFP seats and FKP 19 TCP 17 Justice 6 in PR section.

[ON Progressive]

Is there anywhere to find results in English?

[jaichind]

Is there anywhere to find results in English?

Not that I know of.  I mostly just use SBS live stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCZfwB-zG30

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 156 UFP 92 Independents 5 for FPTP.  FKP 19 TCP 17 Justice 6 PP 3 OCP 2 in PR section.

As expected DPK swept all the urban and Eastern seats while UFP did well in rural and Western seats.

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 155 UFP 93 Independents 5 for FPTP.  FKP 17 TCP 17 Justice 6 PP 3 OCP 2 PPL 2 in PR section.  Now UFP-FKP are under-performing exit polls a bit.

[Logical]

m. news. naver. c o m/election/nation2020/index.nhn
Results page in Korean (delete the spaces) . Navigable through Google translate.


m. news. naver. c o m/election/nation2020/result/index.nhn?p=whole
FPTP seat map

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 154 UFP 94 Independents 5 (4 Center-Right, 1 Center-Left) for FPTP. 
FKP 17 TCP 17 Justice 6 PP 3 OCP 2 PPL 2 in PR section. 

PR vote count so far seems to be

FKP        35.1%
TCP        33.1%
Justice     8.6%
PP           6.1%
OCP        4.9%
PPL         3.9%

There seems to be some last minute shift of OCP PR voters over to TCP PR.

[Walmart_shopper]

So the left now has a majority?

[jaichind]

SBS now has it at  DPK 157 UFP 90 Justice 1 Independents 5 (4 Center-Right, 1 Center-Left) for FPTP.
FKP 19 TCP 17 Justice 5 PP 3 OCP 2 PPL 1 in PR

PR vote count so far seems to be

FKP        35.5%
TCP        32.8%
Justice     8.6%
PP           6.2%
OCP        4.9%
PPL         3.0%