2020 South Korean legislative election (April 15th)

[urutzizu]

Developments in Places such as the US, Europe and South East Asia seem to have made People in Korea realize how good their response was, relatively speaking, and consequentially Moons approval is rising fast.

Realmeter (Mar 26):
President Approval
approval  52.5 (+3.2)
disapproval  44.1 (-3.8 )

Highest Approval since November 2018

Democratic Party:  45% (+2.9)
United Future Party: 29.8% (-3.8 )
Justice Party: 4.7% (+1.0)
People Party: 3.6% (-0.4)

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200326001852315

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fantastic news!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Moon's been a standout compared to other leftist leaders like Sanchez and AMLO who've proven pretty hapless in this crisis. Definitely a model for center-left leadership worldwide.

[Lord Halifax]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

[Lord Halifax]

The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

This may be wishful thinking on my part given the MoE, but according to the polls they have lost half their support in a week. Pro-NK parties generally have difficulty keeping up support outside a few pockets (and families) where there is a legacy vote from the extremely brutal suppression of red guerillas by the Syngman Rhee regime during the Korean War.

[jaichind]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

I think this poll asks for party support and not voting intention.  The same Realmeter poll asked for voting intentions which took into account the recent Democratic Party splinter Open Democrats.

Democratic Party      28.9%
Future Korea Party    28.0%
Open Democrats       11.6%
Justice Party              5.4%
People Party              4.9%

It seems that Open Democrats are taking a good chunk of the Democratic Party vote.

The internet based Dailian Daily poll has the PR vote with Future Korea Party in the lead

Future Korea Party    32.3%
Democratic Party      26.9%
Open Democrats       12.6%
Justice Party              7.4%
People Party              6.0%

It is clear that the Center-Left vote is still well ahead of the Center-Right vote but how well Open Democrats and Justice Party eating into the Democratic Party will determine if Future Korea Party can pull of coming in ahead of the Democratic Party.

[xelas81]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

I think this poll asks for party support and not voting intention.  The same Realmeter poll asked for voting intentions which took into account the recent Democratic Party splinter Open Democrats.

Democratic Party      28.9%
Future Korea Party    28.0%
Open Democrats       11.6%
Justice Party              5.4%
People Party              4.9%

It seems that Open Democrats are taking a good chunk of the Democratic Party vote.

The internet based Dailian Daily poll has the PR vote with Future Korea Party in the lead

Future Korea Party    32.3%
Democratic Party      26.9%
Open Democrats       12.6%
Justice Party              7.4%
People Party              6.0%

It is clear that the Center-Left vote is still well ahead of the Center-Right vote but how well Open Democrats and Justice Party eating into the Democratic Party will determine if Future Korea Party can pull of coming in ahead of the Democratic Party.

I think voting intentions from Realmeter about the PR vote.
Open Democrats are only running on PR section and I think they are trying to get voters who think that they are real satellite party for the Democratic party.

[xelas81]

To clarify

United Future Party (미래통합당) is running on FPTP seats.
Future Korea Party (미래한국당) is running on PR seats.


Democratic Party (더불어민주당) is running on FPTP seats.
Together Citizens' Party (더불어시민당) is running on PR seats.

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

[Lord Halifax]

The full Realmeter poll with changes from their last poll.

Left: 5.5% (+0.5)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 0.8% (-0.5)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.7% (+1.0)

Centre-left: 45.0% (+2.9)
Democrats (Minjudang) 45.0% (+2.9)

Centre-right: 35.5% (-3.5)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.6% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.1% (+0.7)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 29.8% (-3.8 )

Far Right: 3.6% (+0.1)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 2.0% (+0.6)

Others 2.6% (+0.7)
Undecided 7.8% (-0.8 )

Note that Others (2.6%) is the four unaligned leftist parties (Labor, Greens, Women's and Our Future) and the left liberal Open Democrats (co-founded by a guy who served time in jail for slandering a president and was credibly accused of sexual harassment and not really a factor) so the combined leftist vote is at least two points higher. The Minjung Party seems to be crashing (which is good news, the NK friendlies make it too easy to taint the rest of the left).

I think this poll asks for party support and not voting intention.  The same Realmeter poll asked for voting intentions which took into account the recent Democratic Party splinter Open Democrats.

Democratic Party      28.9%
Future Korea Party    28.0%
Open Democrats       11.6%
Justice Party              5.4%
People Party              4.9%

It seems that Open Democrats are taking a good chunk of the Democratic Party vote.

The internet based Dailian Daily poll has the PR vote with Future Korea Party in the lead

Future Korea Party    32.3%
Democratic Party      26.9%
Open Democrats       12.6%
Justice Party              7.4%
People Party              6.0%

It is clear that the Center-Left vote is still well ahead of the Center-Right vote but how well Open Democrats and Justice Party eating into the Democratic Party will determine if Future Korea Party can pull of coming in ahead of the Democratic Party.

I think voting intentions from Realmeter about the PR vote.
Open Democrats are only running on PR section and I think they are trying to get voters who think that they are real satellite party for the Democratic party.

The Open Democrats are trying to attack the Democrats from the left saying they've become too Conservative. After an energetic start with lots of reforms Moon's government has largely stalled the reform process after criticism from the business community (and some workers).

But the people behind the Open Democrats aren't that credible (as mentioned before).

[jaichind]

To clarify

United Future Party (미래통합당) is running on FPTP seats.
Future Korea Party (미래한국당) is running on PR seats.


Democratic Party (더불어민주당) is running on FPTP seats.
Together Citizens' Party (더불어시민당) is running on PR seats.

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

Got it .. thanks for clearing up the differences between those two poll results.  One is FPTP and one is PR.

[Lord Halifax]

It should be noted that given votes for constituency seats determines the distribution of 30 of the 47 PR seats you can't completely separate the two categories, which is why the first poll asks for "party support" and the second specifically about PR seats (in reality the 17 PR seats determined by parallel voting).

In general "party support" is what matters as a lot of the 30 PR seats linked to the general result (acting as top-up seats) will go to minor parties competing for constituency seats. So the designated "PR parties" are fishing in a small pool, only 17 seats are set aside for parallel voting.

According to the National Election Commission (cited in The Korea Herald), a total of 1,118 candidates have registered to run for the 253 electoral districts while 312 candidates will compete for the 17 proportional representation seats. The remaining 30 PR seats will go to candidates for constituency seats from underrepresented parties.

[Lord Halifax]

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

Are you sure they aren't running in any constituencies? When they were set up a big part of their pitch was a protest against UFP setting up a satellite party, but I'm not sure that means their leaders will refrain from running in constituency seats. The deadlines for running in constituency seats tend to be very late.

If they don't run for any constituency seats they won't have access to the 30 top-up seats, but only the 17 seats allocated via parallel voting, so it doesn't seem like a rational strategy to only go for PR seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Moon's been a standout compared to other leftist leaders like Sanchez and AMLO who've proven pretty hapless in this crisis. Definitely a model for center-left leadership worldwide.

Could you elaborate on the differences?

[Lord Halifax]

The government has announced an aid package which should secure its support among workers and poor people.

It'll supply disaster relief funds to low-income households and send a one-time cash payment to 10 million households earning less than the median income. The median income of a four-member household is estimated at nearly 4.7 million won ($3,885). The amount will vary depending on the size of the household, a four-member household is eligible for up to 1 million won. The exact amounts and other details will be determined during the third emergency economic council session tomorrow.

Starting next month, the government will also reduce the cost of health insure and workers’ compensation insurance for low-income households and small-business owners, by up to 50% for three months, monthly payments for the national pension plan and employment insurance will be suspended for two months.

Job seekers in low-income households will receive monthly stipends of 500,000 won for three months to adults younger than 70 whose income falls below the 60th percentile.

The Ministry of Health and Welfare has also partnered with the municipalities to offer vouchers to children and senior citizens in the lowest income brackets for four months. A four-member household can receive up to 1.4 million worth of vouchers under this plan.

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from 30/3 with changes from their last poll. Not big changes, but more undecideds.

Left: 5.6% (+0.1)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.0% (+0.2)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.6% (-0.1)

Centre-left: 44.6% (-0.4)
Democrats (Minjudang) 44.6% (-0.4)

Centre-right: 35.1% (-0.4)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.3% (-0.3)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 1.8% (-0.3)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 30.0% (+0.2 )

Far Right: 3.4% (-0.2)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.6% (nc)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.8% (-0.2)

Others 2.8% (+0.2)
Undecided 8.4% (+0.6)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Together Citizens' Party 29.8%
Future Korea Party 27.4%
Open Democratic Party 11.7%
Justice Party 5.9%
People Party 4.3% 
Pro-Park New Party 2.3%
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.2% ,
Liberty Republican Party 2.0%
Minjung Party 1.2%
Others 2.5%
Undecided 10.9%

Just 60% of the Democrats' supporters go to their satellite party (Together Citizens' Party), 22.3% go to the Open Democrats and 4.5% to Justice. 

56.1% of self-described Conservatives go to the Future Korea Party, 4.7% to the Pro-Park New Party and 3.6% to Liberty Republican Party.

46.9% of self-described Progressives go to the Together Citizens' Party,19.6% to the Open Democrats and 8.6% to the Justice Party.

[Lord Halifax]

The official 13 day campaigning period designated by the National Election Commission has started today .

The campaigns have been restricted due to the pandemic, and slogans and visual communication will be more important than usual. 

The Democrats are focusing on capitalizing on President Moon Jae-in's handling of the pandemic under the slogan "Workers against COVID-19" while the UFP is calling for the people to "Judge the Moon government" claiming the real crisis is economic and currently overshadowed by COVID-19.

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from April 2 with changes from their last poll. The two big parties are losing support to minor ones and there are more undecideds.  

The moderate conservative Korea Economic Party, which was originally founded to back former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon for president, but has recently been reestablished, has gotten ballot access and is included.

Left: 6.2% (+0.6)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.3% (+0.3)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 4.9% (+0.3)

Centre-left: 43.0% (-1.6)
Democrats (Minjudang) 43.0% (-1.6)

Centre-right: 36.4% (+1.2)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 4.3% (+1.0)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.5% (+0.7.)
Korea Economic Party (Hanguggyeongjedang) 1.3 (new)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 28.2% (-1.8 )

Far Right: 3.0% (-0.4)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.7% (+0.1)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.3% (-0.5)

Others 2.3% (-0.5)
Undecided 9.1% (+0.7)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Future Korea Party 25.1% (-2.3)
Together Citizens' Party 20.8% (-9.0)
Open Democratic Party 14.3% (+2.6)
Justice Party 8.2% (+2.3)
People Party 5.1% (+0.8 )
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.9% (+0.7)
Korea Economic Party 2.0 (new)
Pro-Park New Party 1.8% (-0.5)
Liberty Republican Party 1.7% (-0.3)
Minjung Party 1.2% (nc)

Others 3.2% (+0.7)
Undecided 13.5% (+2.6)

[Lord Halifax]

The undecided voters in the Realmeter poll are mainly from low status groups and a lot of them are typical non-voters (voters with no ideology etc.), but the right seems to have a slightly higher reserve (more retirees and more conservative leaning among the undecideds) than the left. There are notably fewer voters below 40 among the undecideds than 40+.

By ideological orientation (share of group)

None 28.8%
Conservative 11.8%
Progressive 9.0%

The groups with the highest share of undecideds:

60+ 12.2%
40s 10.2%

unemployed 19.5%
office worker 13.7%
housewife 13.1%
manual laborer 12.5%

[ON Progressive]

There are two Ipsos constituency polls mentioned in this article:

Jongo seat (Seoul, home of the Blue House and Gyeongbokgung Palace):
Lee Nak-yeon (Democratic) 55.1%
Hwang Kyo-ahn (United Future) 34.5%

Gangnam (affluent district in Seoul):
Thae Yong-ho (UFP, would be first North Korean defector in National Assembly ever) 42.6%
Kim Sung-kon (Democratic) 33.7%

I also found a national poll from them commissioned by SBS (article is only in Korean), but it only does the PR/List vote:
Future Korea 24
Together Citizen's 20
Justice 14
Open Democrats 12
People's 5

[Lord Halifax]

New Realmeter poll from today with changes from their last poll. Justice back above 5 percent.

Left: 6.8% (+0.6)
Minjung Party (Minjungdang) 1.4% (+0.1)
Justice Party (Jeong-uidang) 5.4% (+0.5)

Centre-left: 43.2% (+0.2)
Democrats (Minjudang) 43.2% (+0.2)

Centre-right: 36.2% (-0.2)
People Party (Gugmin-uidang) 3.8% (-0.5)
Party for People's Livelihoods (Minsaengdang) 2.2% (-0.3)
Korea Economic Party (Hanguggyeongjedang) 1.4 (+0.1)
United Future Party (Milaetonghabdang) 28.8% (+0.6 )

Far Right: 3.0% (nc)
Pro-Park New Party (Chinbagsindang) 1.7% (+0.1)
Liberty Republican Party (Gonghwadang) 1.3% (-0.5)

Others 2.8% (+0.5)
Undecided 9.0% (-0.1)

Parallel vote for the PR seats:

Future Korea Party 25.0% (-0.1)
Together Citizens' Party 21.7% (+0.9)
Open Democratic Party 14.4% (+0.1)
Justice Party 8.5% (+0.3)
People Party 4.7% (-0.4)
Party for People's Livelihoods 2.8% (-0.1)
Liberty Republican Party 2.1% (+0.4)
Korea Economic Party 1.9 (-0.1)
Pro-Park New Party 1.6% (-0.2)
Minjung Party 1.6% (+0.4)

Others 3.2% (+0.7)
Undecided 12.4% (-1.1)

[jaichind]

To clarify

United Future Party (미래통합당) is running on FPTP seats.
Future Korea Party (미래한국당) is running on PR seats.


Democratic Party (더불어민주당) is running on FPTP seats.
Together Citizens' Party (더불어시민당) is running on PR seats.

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

Is the reason why Democratic Party  and United Future Party are not running in the PR slate and instead have sister parties run there instead to get some sort of cap on PR seats allocated if a party does well in the FPFP seats (sort of like Germany) ?

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1248545506441093122

Looks like turnout in early voting is very high, especially in Jeolla.

[xelas81]

https://twitter.com/koryodynasty/status/1248545506441093122

Looks like turnout in early voting is very high, especially in Jeolla.

Hardest hit Daegu has lowest turnout but it is still up.
High early voting turnout doesn't necessarily equal record overall turnout but still good sign for overall turnout nevertheless.

[ON Progressive]

Final poll from Gallup Korea, conducted April 7th and 8th.

Moon Jae-in approval 57/35

Constituency vote (changes from March 31-April 2 poll):
Democratic 44 (+3)
United Future 23 (nc)
Justice 6 (+2)
All others below 1%

List/PR vote (only parties at or close to 3% threshold listed):
Together Citizen's 23 (+2)
Future Korea 22 (-1)
Justice 13 (+2)
Open Democrats 8 (-2)
People's 6 (+1)
People's Livelihoods 2.6 (+0.6)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

To clarify

United Future Party (미래통합당) is running on FPTP seats.
Future Korea Party (미래한국당) is running on PR seats.


Democratic Party (더불어민주당) is running on FPTP seats.
Together Citizens' Party (더불어시민당) is running on PR seats.

Open Democrats (열린민주당) is minor splinter party running on PR seats

Is the reason why Democratic Party  and United Future Party are not running in the PR slate and instead have sister parties run there instead to get some sort of cap on PR seats allocated if a party does well in the FPFP seats (sort of like Germany) ?

I think it's to try and exploit some of the rules, yeah. Don't know the full details though