Los Angeles local elections, 2020
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:28:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Los Angeles local elections, 2020
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Los Angeles local elections, 2020  (Read 3532 times)
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 10, 2020, 10:32:11 PM »

A county larger than a small European country is about to have its local elections in about a month and I thought it’d be cool to do a quick rundown. Notably, this is the first time ever that local elections will be held concurrently with the national and state primaries. No one’s really sure what the implications of this will be, other than that turnout will increase significantly compared to previous years. By far, the biggest issues this year are going to be housing affordability and homelessness, which has overtaken some of the perennial sources of anger like traffic and air quality.

If you don’t live in California, it’s hard to comprehend just how bad the homelessness problem has become - there are people living on the street and in cars everywhere and it’s also provoked a very ugly reaction from certain people, with homeless encampments being burned down and neighborhood opposition to homeless shelters. There’s also been deep frustration about the seeming lack of results from the city’s 2016 Proposition HHH and the county’s Measure H, both of which promised to build more housing for the homeless, but have only seen their first projects open last month - almost four years after the measure was passed. Our dear president has also started to get involved with homelessness issue, with the appointment of a homelessness czar and rumors that the feds are going to try putting the homeless into a federal building in Hawthorne.

Affordable housing in general also continues to be a contentious issue beyond its obvious connections to homelessness. Los Angeles is one of the most expensive cities in the U.S. There has been a lot of fighting over what to do about this. As you might’ve heard, there was a recent, high-profile bill in the state legislature which would’ve ended single-family zoning across the state and upzoned areas around public transportation. This bill failed, primarily because of opposition from Los Angeles County, from where only one of the county’s 10 senators voted in favor. The sources of concerns with the bill were pretty diverse, ranging from the affluent suburbanites concerned about “neighborhood character”, Westsiders worried about “historic preservation”, and low-income minority communities who think that they’ll be gentrified out of their neighborhoods thanks to speculative developers. However, it’s also fair to say that none of these groups have made any alternative proposals. There’s also been some controversy around Measure JJJ, a city program which allows developers to build more housing around transit stations if they add more affordable units. The program has been sued by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which has been the funding source of many anti-development campaigns through the state over the last couple years. Why an AIDS foundation has made opposition to development ones of its reasons for existence is beyond me, but there’s a non-zero chance this is because its CEO wanted to stop a high-rise from blocking the view of the Hollywood Hills from his office.

My goal is to at least have a rundown of every contested supervisorial and city council race coming in March, along with the DA election. Maybe also the state legislature, but that might be a bit much.

The County Supervisorial Races

LA County has five supervisorial districts (here’s a bad map), each of which has a population around 2 million people, making them about the size of Nebraska. Supervisors serve terms of four years and get termed out after three terms. The county supervisors have a decent amount of power, overseeing a lot of the county’s social services, supervising the county’s sheriff department (which is flaming trash fire of epic proportions rn and should be burned to the ground), and playing a large role in running Metro (which has been bleeding riders). This year, supervisors from districts 2, 4, and 5 are being elected. District 2 is the only one that’s being contested because it’s the only open seat, so that’ll be the only one I’m going to discuss. (It’s worth a mention that it’s really, really hard to unseat a supervisor because of how massive the districts are.)

District 2: First, here’s an amazing fundraising map by the LA Times. Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas has been termed out. He’s been a major player in local politics for a long time now, but I’ll talk about him more later on since he’s running for the city council. There are four major candidates: recently-departed City Council president Herb Wesson, State Senator Holly Mitchell, former city councilmember Jan Perry, and lawyer Chan Jeong. The former three candidates, along with Ridley-Thomas, are black and district 2 is viewed as one the major centers of black political power in LA County, being home to a lot of traditional black population centers like Compton, Inglewood, Watts, Baldwin Hills, West Adams, etc. However, the district is now majority-Latino, a fact which is probably underdiscussed when people talk about Los Angeles and there is concern among some that blacks will not have a seat on the BOS in the future unless it expands. The district is also the poorest out of the five supervisorial districts, with the lowest median income, the most people below the poverty line, and the lowest jobs-population ratio. Gentrification has been a major concern in the district, with South LA being the last frontiers in the county for new development, with a massive new NFL stadium being opened in Inglewood next year, a new light rail opening on Crenshaw Boulevard, and high opposition to new housing projects. Notably, residents of the district have also been highly opposed to the recent state transit upzoning bills, even after exemptions were made for “sensitive communities”.  So far the race has been, um, spirited, with accusations of the LA County Democrats rigging it. Anyway, now onto the candidates:

  • Chan Jeong: I don’t really know much about him and he’s pretty much irrelevant. He’s a lawyer who’s never held political office before, and as far as I’m aware, he has no base outside of Koreatown. Expect him to come in last.
  • Holly Mitchell: One of the big names in the race. She’s been a state senator representing South LA and Inglewood since 2013 and before that was an Assemblywoman from 2010-2013. Mitchell is also currently the chair of the Senate Budget committee, making her one of the more influential players in Sacramento, which shows in an endorsement list which includes Governor Gavin Newsom, Former Governor Jerry Brown, State Senator President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, three other state elected officials, 13 state senators, and nine state assemblymembers along with decent labor support, including from SEIU, California’s largest union, and support from environmental groups. However, her support from local elected officials is lacking outside of a few councilmembers and controversial Inglewood Mayor James Butts. It’s fair to say that Mitchell can be viewed as the more progressive option in the race, with CalMatters scoring her as one of the most left-wing state senators. Mitchell has touted her accomplishments in criminal justice reform and repealing maximum family assistance laws. Mitchell also voted against SB 50 after wavering for months. Her fundraising has also been decent.
  • Jan Perry: A former city councilmember of downtown who ran for mayor in 2013 and finished fourth. Perry and Wesson have a history, as Wesson oversaw the city council redistricting process which pushed Perry’s downtown neighborhood from the black 9th district to most Latino 14th district. She was also the city councilwoman during Downtown’s revival in the 2000s, when it transformed from a business district where no one stayed past 5 p.m. to one of the city’s most dynamic neighborhoods and since then, she’s been the General Manager of the city’s Economic Workforce Development Department. It’s hard to tell how good of a chance she has - there’s definitely a base for her Downtown, but her fundraising has trailed Wesson and Mitchell and she hasn’t been in the news for the last couple years. I’d peg her as third place right now.
  • Herb Wesson: The frontrunner. Wesson has a long, long history in local politics. He’s spent the last decade as the president of the city council and has been a councilmember since 2005. Before that, he was a state assemblyman from 1998-2004, serving as assembly speaker from 2002-2004. Wesson also has a massive fundraising advantage, having raised about as much money as Perry and Mitchell combined. Wesson’s support is wide - he has the support of 13 other LA City Councilmembers, LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, significant numbers of elected officials from smaller cities, most LA County labor groups, and most of the city’s big money. That isn’t to say Wesson’s campaign is bulletproof though - a recent investigation by The Times has found that Wesson’s son was getting rent breaks from a building whose developers were trying to build a high-rise, a very bad look in a city where housing is people’s #1 issue. A senior aide to Wesson has also gotten caught up in an FBI probe, of which there hasn’t been too much news about since it started last January. Wesson’s also faced other financial problems with his real estate holdings and bills. In terms of actual policy, Wesson isn’t too different from other LA “progressive” politicians - opposition to upzoning bills, a fairly muddled line on homelessness, and cozy and sometimes shady relationships with developers.
     

Overall, I feel pretty confident in a Wesson win considering his deep roots in the city’s politics, but Mitchell does have an outside shot and it’s not a fake election. Wesson’s not a perfect candidate by any means and the the LA establishment is definitely not at its most popular atm with the ongoing housing and homeslessness crisis (sidenote, but if there was a competent right-wing movement in this state, homeslessness would be the issue to capitalize on). As a guy who’s been a major player on the LA scene for over 20 years now, it’s hard not to see Wesson as the epitome of what’s wrong with LA and if there’s an anti-incumbent mood in March, I could see a Mitchell win.
Logged
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2020, 06:01:22 PM »

District 5: This and District 4 are also up for election this cycle. District 4 is almost definitely going to be won by incumbent Democrat Janice Hahn. It’s also likely that District 5 will be won by the incumbent Kathryn Barger, but I’m writing up a preview because it wouldn’t be too surprising to see her unseated. Why? Well, she’s a Republican in Los Angeles County. Barger’s district consists of the high desert which makes up the north of the county, the Santa Clarita Valley, and a bunch of northern San Gabriel and San Fernando valley cities, including Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena, and Arcadia. Traditionally, the high desert, Santa Clarita, and La Cañada Flintridge have been among the more Republican parts of LA County, still voting Republican at the presidential level as recently as 2012. However, these areas have been part of the nationwide suburban swing against Republicans during the Trump era, punctuated by Katie Hill’s victory over Steve Knight in 2018 midterms. Once you consider that this supervisorial district is pretty much Hill’s district plus the districts of significantly more liberal representatives Adam Schieff and Judy Chu, it’s not hard to see Democrats might have a shot here.

Barger herself is still a fairly mainstream Republican - she’s been supportive of Trump’s immigration policies, supported an appeal of a federal ruling which prevented homeless camping arrests, and has been the middleman between Garcetti and Trump on homelessness. Despite all this, the opposition has been extremely low-profile and she’s been endorsed by every relevant organization in Los Angeles. So, she’s almost definitely not being unseated, but who knows, maybe there’s a chance.    
------
The District Attorney

County DA Jackie Lacey is running for her third term as DA, following a 2012 win where she became the first African-American and woman to win the position and a 2016 election where she ran opposed. During her time as DA, Lacey has become an extremely controversial figure, earning the enmity of a lot of progressive groups. So, where to begin? Well, she has a compelling family history: her family emigrated from the South and she grew up in a gang-ridden neighborhood in South LA, eventually rising up in the prosecutorial ranks to eventually reach the position of DA. However, her time as DA has seen a host of controversies. She’s been seen as reluctant to prosecute big-name cases, not charging Danny Masterson, dragging her feet on Bikram Choudhry, taking too long to do anything about the particularly ugly case of Democratic donor Ed Buck, and not charging the officer who shot Brandon Glenn despite the recommendation of the chief of the LAPD. The last one, along with a general unwillingness to charge LAPD officers, has earned her the ire of Black Lives Matter. Lacey has also not been supportive of progressive criminal justice reforms, continuing to ask for the death penalty, opposing Prop 47 to shift incarcerated people away from jails, opposing Prop 57 which decriminalized pot, and has opposed ending cash bail. Still, she’s garnered a wide set of endorsements, ranging from LA-area congressmen, various state legislators, and the mayors of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Most notably, she has an endorsement of San Francisco Mayor London Breed, which is interesting because of her opponent who’ll be discussed below.

George Gascón has a very interesting background for a guy who’s running to be the progressive option for LA County district. First, he’s a former cop, having been an LAPD officer at the beginning of his career, eventually becoming the head of the Mesa, Arizona, Police Department and the San Francisco Police Department. After Kamala Harris became Attorney General, Gascón was then appointed as San Francisco District Attorney by then-San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. While DA, Gascón was disliked by police groups and Mayor Breed, who felt he did not prosecute criminals enough, and was also distrusted by more liberal groups who disliked that he did not charge officers. Some of the more noted parts of his San Francisco tenure include the expunging of marijuana charges after the passage of Prop 64, pushing for the end of cash bail, being a driving force behind Prop 47, and overseeing a dramatic drop in violent crime. That being said, property crime has also increased during his tenure, with the city police and city officials wanting to see more prosecutions (unlikely under curren SF DA Chesa Boudin). Gascón has also been endorsed by the LA County Democrats and various reformist DAs from across the country, including Boudin and Philadelphia DA Larry Krasner. Gascón is the clear favorite in my opinion and there’s a solid chance he wins outright on March 3.

There’s also a third candidate, public defender Rachel Rossi, who’s also running on a progressive anti-Lacey platform. Rossi has worked as a public defender in both local and federal courts, and served as a policy advisor during the Kavanaugh hearings. Her platform includes ending prosecution of the homeless for camping, ending racial disparities in the criminal justice system, and fighting to end cash bail. Though there’s definitely a group of progressives which likes her, Gascón has swallowed up the oxygen in her lane and it’d be surprising to see her get anything other than a third-place finish.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2020, 04:57:47 PM »

Very nice writeups! I'm particularly intrigued by the DA race. I don't have much of a flag to plant in the race, but I am interested in the ramifications of a Gascon win.

Do you know if the DA race goes to a November if no one gets 50%? I can't seem to find that answer
Logged
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 02:34:45 PM »

Very nice writeups! I'm particularly intrigued by the DA race. I don't have much of a flag to plant in the race, but I am interested in the ramifications of a Gascon win.

Do you know if the DA race goes to a November if no one gets 50%? I can't seem to find that answer

I believe if no one clears 50% it goes to a run-off. Not sure if that's in May or November though.
-------
The Los Angeles City Council

Being a Los Angeles city councilmember is low-key one of the more influential positions a power-hungry American politician can hold. First, despite being the second-largest city in America, Los Angeles has a grand total of 15 councilmembers. To compare, New York has 51 and Chicago has 50. This means that the average LA city councilmember represents about 260,000 people, about the population of Madison, and individual city council members essentially have immense power over the land-use decisions in their districts, with few projects or planning decisions being made in a district without a councilmember’s approval. To call a city council district a councilmember’s fiefdom is no exaggeration. And, of course, developers are very well aware of this.

(A digression: The natural implication of there being a powerful city council is that the mayor of Los Angeles is weak compared to its counterparts in New York and Chicago. A result of California’s local government structure being formed during the progressive era, the mayor of LA has very little formal power beyond being able to hire and fire department heads - which was a power only given to the office in 1999. The mayor also technically has the right to veto council legislation, but during Herb Wesson’s council presidency, it has been extremely rare to see anything pass the council without a unanimous vote. Unlike New York and Chicago, the mayor does not control the school board or social services. The mayor also only appoints four of 13 LA Metro Board members.)

Anyway, elections will be held in the even-numbered council districts this year. I believe this is the last round of elections which will be held before redistricting, a process that was very fraught with controversy the last time around.

Here’s a map of the districts.

District 2 (The East San Fernando Valley)
A somewhat suburban district in the San Fernando Valley featuring much of the entertainment industry located within the city of Los Angeles. In many ways, the district is a decent reflection of the city demographically, with a slight lean towards the richer end. It is in the middle of the road when it comes to income, educational attainment, homelessness, and unemployment. Racially, it is notable for being significantly whiter than the city at large, though not exceptionally white for the San Fernando Valley, with it being 47% Latino, 42% white, 8% Asian, and 4% black. The district will be seeing one of the biggest development projects in all of Los Angeles over the 2020s, with a megaproject going up around the North Hollywood subway station, replacing a sea of parking lots.
  • Incumbent Paul Krekorian is running against nominal opposition and will likely be easily re-elected.

District 4 (Sherman Oaks, Hollywood, Mid-Wilshire, Los Feliz, Koreatown)
This is one of the most nonsensically-drawn districts in all of America and I wish I understood why all of these neighborhoods were grouped together, but I really don’t. (Well, I guess there's the Hollywood and demographic connections, but it's a geographical nightmare.) Sherman Oaks is in the San Fernando Valley, and it’s a relatively quiet and affluent suburban neighborhood which feels like it exists in a different world from the LA Basin. Hollywood is, well, Hollywood. It’s one of the denser, more urban parts of LA, and the part of Hollywood in this district is more touristy and home to more creative industries compared to East Hollywood, which is more residential and immigrant-heavy. Mid-Wilshire is the old, glamorous part of Los Angeles, home to cultural landmarks such as LACMA, The Original Farmer’s Market, and Miracle Mile. A nice, relatively dense and urban area, it’s about to be transformed by the extension of the subway from Wilshire Boulevard. Los Feliz and Silver Lake are the Brooklyn of the West, home to artsy hipster types, with the latter being a formerly working-class Latino neighborhood which is quickly gentrifying. Koreatown is another working-class Latino neighborhood, though as the name indicates, it also has a substantial Korean minority, and it is also gentrifying, as it has become popular due to the multiculturalism and walkability. Needless to say, this is a very diverse district geographically, and all things considered, probably shouldn’t exist.

The district as a whole is one of the richest and most highly-educated in the city of Los Angeles, with a median income of $66,700 and 60% having at least a bachelor’s degree. It is also one of the most white and Asian in the city of LA, at 62% white and 17% Asian. CD-4’s also been seeing a building boom compared to the rest of the city, ranking third in new construction permits, only following district downtown and on the far west side. It feels like a fair assumption that it’ll only see more building in the future, especially if some sort of housing-near-transit law ever comes into effect. The district is also very contested in this election, seeing one of only two credible primary challenges this cycle. The candidates are:
  • Incumbent David Ryu. Five years ago, Ryu ran as a reformer on an anti-developer platform, promising that he would not take any developer donations if he was elected. Whether or not he’s actually followed that pledge is questionable, with him having to return several donations to developers late last year. It’s fair to say that Ryu has turned out to be your typical LA politician, a lot of progressive rhetoric, not a lot of action on those issues, and a selectively close relationship with developers. (On that note, he’s also recently proposed an addendum to the Transit-Oriented Communities program which came out of Measure JJJ to increase affordable housing requirements.) It’s also worth mentioning that Ryu faced a rape charge in 2002 which was dismissed, allegedly due to “conflicting evidence.” Ryu was endorsed by the LA Times and many important establishment Democrat figures, including Eric Garcetti and Dianne Feinstein.
  • Nithya Raman: Raman is a former urban planner who is running on a progressive platform with an emphasis on dealing with homelessness. Raman started her career by founding a nonprofit research firm in India, and then coming back to LA to work in the City Administrative Office. Currently, she is the executive director of Time’s Up, the post-MeToo legal defense fund and the chair of the Silver Lake Neighborhood Council Homelessness Committee. Raman would like to see the Council to take a more housing-first approach to deal with homelessness, a contrast to the city’s current approach of sweeps and working more closely with the federal government. Raman’s been endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, DSA, and big-name celebrities including Nick Offerman, Jane Fonda and Natalie Portman among others. It’s hard to get a handle on her chances - she’s been one of the higher-profile challengers and she does give off some rising star vibes, but unseating an incumbent in LA is beyond hard and lefty groups don’t have a great record with primary challenges here though maybe the Hollywood connections give her more credibility (this is one of the few electorates in America where this might actually matter). She also has the issue of there being another credible challenger who fills a lot of the same niches.
  • Sarah Kate Levy: Levy is a screenwriter and is running on a progressive platform. Obviously, Levy has deep connections to Hollywood, with her endorsement list including Jack Black. Her platform is similar to Raman, though I’d say that she’s running a more liberal urbanist campaign compared to Raman’s more leftist campaign, but in my opinion, the differences aren’t too large. Levy is making a particular focus on transportation issues, proposing an expansion of the local bus system, creating more protected bike lanes, and improving sidewalks. This focus has resulted in praise and endorsements from transit advocacy groups. Other high-profile endorsements included Katie Porter and Katie Hill. Much like Raman, it’s tough to tell what her chances are and while my guess is that she’s slightly behind Raman in terms of enthusiasm, I don’t know how much of that perception is because of the spaces I’m in and my own biases.
If I had to guess, this race goes to a run-off, which Ryu eventually wins. I think both challengers are pretty strong, but I’m not going to believe in an incumbent council member losing until I see it happen.
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,621
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2020, 01:10:21 AM »

I live in LA an volunteer frequently for the Raman campaign. Levy is absolutely a nonfactor, which I've also been suggested is reflected in their data. Sarah Kate is not really canvassing and her social media game sucks. It's a two-way race between Ryu and Nithya rn, and I'd honestly give Nithya the edge.
Logged
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 15, 2020, 09:15:58 PM »

Raman is the first good thing to happen to L.A. politics in a long while. Any chance Bonin or Cedillo endorse her?

I just can’t see it. So much of this city council’s modus operandi has been operating unanimously and either of them choosing now to make a break. And if they haven’t endorsed against John Lee yet, I don’t think it’ll be against Ryu.
Logged
coloradocowboi
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,621
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 17, 2020, 03:45:23 PM »

Raman is the first good thing to happen to L.A. politics in a long while. Any chance Bonin or Cedillo endorse her?

I just can’t see it. So much of this city council’s modus operandi has been operating unanimously and either of them choosing now to make a break. And if they haven’t endorsed against John Lee yet, I don’t think it’ll be against Ryu.

I dk why she would want their endorsements anyway. Natalie Portman is a far better endorsement than Mike Bonin lol.

Folks also have to remember that this is occurring, for the first time, in a general election year. That will also certainly benefit Nithya.

Ryu's switched gears and is campaigning hard now, but she definitely caught him sleeping and his image has taken a hit. I think the most likely outcome is something like Nithya 45% Ryu 35%, both move on to general, but it's entirely possible she knocks him out in the first round. As I understand it, it's not like congressional elections, and if she wins the primary with a majority, she becomes the City Councilwoman
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2020, 01:43:37 PM »

This morning, Sen. Kamala Harris endorsed George Gascón for DA

Quote
“George Gascón is a proven leader of national significance when it comes to reforming our criminal justice system. As DA of San Francisco, George led fights to reform the Three Strikes Law, decrease the state prison population and get people convicted of nonviolent offenses greater opportunities to get their lives back on track. As DA of LA County, I know George Gascón will work every day to keep our communities safe and demand real accountability from our justice system and real justice for every Angeleno.”

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/02/18/george-gascon-gets-kamala-harris-endorsement-in-heated-la-da-race/
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 28, 2020, 11:38:12 AM »
« Edited: February 29, 2020, 04:01:16 AM by Interlocutor »

LA Times endorsements


District Attorney:  George Gascón
"Gascón, a former Los Angeles police officer who also served as San Francisco’s district attorney, has championed rational reforms to make people safe and make the system fairer."


Supervisor, District 2:  Holly Mitchell
"An impressive state lawmaker who has focused her work on justice, equity and fiscal issues, Mitchell would be the best person to carry on the county’s work in improving justice and human services."

Supervisor, District 4:  Janice Hahn*
"In her first term, Hahn has shown her commitment to listening to constituents and solving problems and that she’s willing to fight the battles necessary to get homeless housing projects done."

Supervisor, District 5:  Kathryn Barger*
"On a progressive board, Barger is a pragmatic moderate who provides valuable insight on issues such as homelessness and public safety, with the exception of her knee-jerk opposition to certain criminal justice reforms."


City Council, District 2:  Paul Krekorian*
"He’s an intelligent and thoughtful incumbent who deserves reelection, but he needs to speak up and be a stronger advocate for fiscal responsibility in City Hall."

City Council, District 4:  David Ryu*
"Ryu deserves a second term in office for his work trying to reform the city’s ethics and campaign finance system and for tackling homelessness in his district."

City Council, District 6:  Nury Martinez*
"Now the president of the City Council, Martinez needs to channel her bluntness and toughness into standing up for what’s right on homelessness and other issues."

City Council, District 8:  Marqueece Harris-Dawson*
"Running unopposed, Harris-Dawson is a thoughtful leader who wants the best for his community, but we hope he uses his experience as an insider to get more change faster."

City Council, District 10:  Mark Ridley-Thomas
"For this open seat, no other candidate in the race can beat Ridley-Thomas’ experience, knowledge and long list of accomplishments."

City Council, District 12:  Loraine Lundquist
"An astrophysicist and community activist, Lundquist offers a vision for a cleaner, healthier, more humane city. Incumbent John Lee does not."

City Council, District 14:  Kevin de León
"The community and the City Council would benefit from De León’s skills at dreaming up ambitious solutions to major problems and then using his political savvy to get them adopted."


https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-02-23/la-times-endorsements-march-3-california-primary-los-angeles
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 28, 2020, 11:44:27 AM »
« Edited: February 29, 2020, 03:59:37 AM by Interlocutor »

The DA race fascinates me the more I read up on it. Then again, I shouldn't be surprised at the attention it's getting. I guess it's the whole "LA officer returns home from Arizona & San Francisco and not treated like an outsider" approach that's intriguing. I don't know how long he worked in LA, but it doesn't seem as "LA vs SF" as I expected.

DA Lacey feels, to me, like a transitional figure with one foot in the era of Steve Cooley and another foot in the era of progressive criminal justice reforms. Those feet may as well be in different worlds
Logged
Canis
canis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,509


Political Matrix
E: -5.03, S: -6.26

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 02:28:32 AM »

Voted for Rossi in the DA race hoping she pulls off a second place finish!
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2020, 04:30:44 PM »

Well this DA race has taken an odd turn with around 30 hours before polls close

Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2020, 05:03:14 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2020, 05:49:10 AM by Interlocutor »

Current results in the DA race. This is with 100% reporting, although there's still an indeterminate number of VBM & provisional ballots to count.


Jackie Lacey*     368,981    52.42%
George Gascón   181,771    25.82%
Rachel Rossie     153,112    21.75%


EDIT

2:45 AM update (40 minutes after this post)

Jackie Lacey*     409,093    51.65%
George Gascón   208,412    26.31%
Rachel Rossie     174,582    22.04%
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2020, 05:01:45 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2020, 11:21:35 PM by Interlocutor »

3/4

Noon update

Jackie Lacey*     489,835    50.69%
George Gascón   259,307    26.83%
Rachel Rossie     217,165    22.47%


Evening update

Jackie Lacey*     532,583    50.14%
George Gascón   289,082    27.22%
Rachel Rossie     240,534    22.64%

Looking like this'll be a November runoff
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2020, 06:59:29 PM »

Lacey has (finally) gotten under 50% after today's update


Jackie Lacey*     691,958    49.94%
George Gascón   383,183    27.66%
Rachel Rossie     310,412    22.40%
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2020, 03:02:23 PM »

Who would you rather vote for in a matchup between these two DAs, LA DA Jackie Lacey (D) or OC DA Todd Spitzer (R)?
Logged
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2020, 04:30:55 PM »


bad bot
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 12, 2020, 04:59:27 PM »


Go start a thread about it.

And stop trying to make Todd Spitzer happen. It's not going to happen.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 12, 2020, 05:14:09 PM »

Now that Jackie Lacey has a plurality, most Rachel Rossie voters will vote for George Gascon in the runoff.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 12, 2020, 05:36:20 PM »

Now that Jackie Lacey has a plurality, most Rachel Rossie voters will vote for George Gascon in the runoff.

That's kind of a given
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2020, 05:51:35 PM »

Now that Jackie Lacey has a plurality, most Rachel Rossie voters will vote for George Gascon in the runoff.

That's kind of a given
That means Lacey is toast.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2020, 08:47:19 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2020, 04:51:27 PM by Monstro »

Now that Jackie Lacey has a plurality, most Rachel Rossie voters will vote for George Gascon in the runoff.

That's kind of a given
That means Lacey is toast.

Careful with that simple presumption. We must have different definitions of what "toast" is.

Current numbers being what they are, a 50.1 - 49.9 loss could easily be a 50.1 - 49.9 win. Nothing close to "toast".

We got over 7 months to go and it's not clear at all if the GE electorate will be pro or anti-Lacey.

There's also a Prop 47 reform proposition on the November ballot that could come into play, given Gascón's role on the original Prop.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2020, 06:21:49 PM »

The Los Angeles City Council

District 4 (Sherman Oaks, Hollywood, Mid-Wilshire, Los Feliz, Koreatown)
This is one of the most nonsensically-drawn districts in all of America and I wish I understood why all of these neighborhoods were grouped together, but I really don’t.

CD4 has always been screwed up. Over the years John Ferraro tried to keep CD4 anchored on its historic base, but as the Valley population grew more rapidly it was forced to stretch northwest. It got worse when Ruth Galanter was "fired" by the rest of the City Council from representing LAX. After that, CD11 vacated its areas in the Valley to move south to Westchester/LAX. CD4 then gobbled up some more Valley.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2020, 08:25:26 PM »

Logged
pikachu
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,180
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2020, 04:31:49 PM »

Kind of pissed that I wasn't able to finish this because of workplace turmoil getting in the way, but anyway, some of the bigger updates:

  • Mark Ridley-Thomas will be going into a run-off election. This one surprised me because MRT is an institution in LA and his challenger is a nobody. He'll most likely win the run-off, but not a good omen for likely mayoral campaign in 2022.
  • Nithya Raman will going into a run-off against David Ryu. The first round was decently close (46-40 in Ryu's favor). Who knows what the electorate is going to look like in November, but this was the strongest showing by a challenger in an LA city council election since 2003 I believe.
  • The one competitive supervisorial race has Wesson and Mitchell moving onto the run-off, with Wesson leading 30-28. The minor candidates did a lot better than expected, with three Latino candidates who I didn't cover getting a combined 23%. I'm actually going to give the edge to Mitchell for the run-off because the city council is in the midst of a lot of drama rn which won't end in November.
  • I was very, very wrong on the DA race. I thought Gascon had this in the bag and was going to take a commanding round 1 lead at the very least, but Lacey almost won outright and at 49%, she's the odds-on favorite to win round 2. Hopefully some precinct data will show up, but analysts have been saying that a coalition of blacks and Republicans might be pushing her through.
  • Will discuss a little bit more below the post, but John Lee is really f***ing lucky that he survived this election and there's a non-zero chance he's indicted by November.



Anyway, the big news which has shook the LA political world over the last few weeks is that Lee's predecessor and former boss, fellow Republican Mitch Englander, has plead guilty to one count of corruption and now faces up to five years in prison. John Lee, at the time of the bribe, was Englander's chief of staff and was with him in the same Vegas hotel where the bribe took place. Another councilmember - CD14's Jose Huizar, who represents downtown and will be replaced by Kevin de Leon - is the subject of a bribery case and there is still an ongoing FBI probe in relation other councilmembers and their aides. So, yeah, wouldn't be surprising at all to see some sitting councilmembers fall from this.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 11 queries.