2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently, AKK's announcement came as a surprise and shock for the CDU's Presidium so she wasn't stabbed in the back by anyone but decided to call it quits after last week's events. If everybody in the party does whatever the hell he or she wants no matter what I'm asking them to do, I'd probably go to. AKK had not authority anymore.

As a Green and with regards to what Astatine said I'm also seeing some astonishing parallels to Simone Peter, who at one point served under AKK as environment minister in Saarland and eventually became one of the most lackluster party leaders the German Greens ever had on the federal level. For Saarlandians, the federal level often turns out to be "too big" a stage it seems.

As far as AKK succession is concerned, I'd say it will come down to either Laschet or Merz. Spahn has only a shot if Merz declines to run IMO. Maybe it will also depend on the precise procedure. Merz would have the advantage in a primary-like contest where all members can cast their vote, Laschet might win with the help of establishment backing on a party convention.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, so far everything seems to point to Laschet unless he stumbles and makes a serious mistake. There's also strong support for restoring a "the chairman must also be the chancellor-candidate" rule, so it's a likely scenario that he'll run for the Chanellery next year as well. Ideologically, Laschet is probably a successor Angela Merkel could very well live with, although it often seemed like she would have preferred another woman (von der Leyen, Kramp-Karrenbauer etc.) herself. Laschet means no (extreme) conservative turn to right, her legacy would essentially be preserved.

Then again, there's alot of uncertainty, chaos, panic, and confusion going on in the CDU right now with regards to the party's future in general. Since the weekend, more liberal wings of the CDU have openly declared a no-holds-barred war on the AfD-friendly, right-wing "Werteunion" (Values Union). Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther and CDU secretary-general Paul Ziemiak have clashed over the party's ban on cooperating with the Left Party. There are rumours and speculations that the next Bundestag election won't be in September 2021, but possibly much sooner. It certainly took a while, but it almost seems like the CDU has now finally entered the same phase of desintegration which the SPD had already experienced over the last couple of years.

Why is Günther against the rule?

Because in Thuringia (and possibly other states in the future) you can't form a government without either the Left or the AfD. Obviously, Günther prefers the Left out of these options to break the gridlock. He's probably the most liberal of the CDU moderates these days. (It's for that reason that he probably hasn't much of a shot at the CDU chairmanship/Chancellor-candidacy too. In all likelihood, Merkel's successsor won't come from the left of Merkel.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

As a first step, AKK is essentially planning to conduct separate "job interviews" with Laschet, Merz, and Spahn to determine their respective intentions. I guess the precise number of candidates running will determine how to proceed.

One thing that could perhaps stop Merz (or not make him a good CDU chairman if it comes to that) is his reputation of being too egoistical and not a very good team player. For instance, when he  failed to win the party chairmanship in 2018 the CDU basically begged him to take up another position, for instance one of the five deputy chairmen or at least a seat on the CDU's executive board. At that point it became clear that he will only return to politics if he gets a definite shot at the top job. He wants to be Chancellor and CDU chairmanship is a guarenteed stepping stone towards that goal. He's not interested in anything below that.

Laschet on the other hand appears to have a fundamentlly different approach. Unlike Merz and Spahn, he refused to make any public comments on his political future during the last couple of years. He's hedging his bets, perhaps trying to organize support for a bid behind the scenes. Only today he happened to appear in the headlines by making a pledge that he will "never" cooperate with the AfD in any form.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AKK is planning to propose a successor for herself on February 24.

[Middle-aged Europe]

^^ Yes, Friedrich Merz being a neoliberal globalist with strong ties to BlackRock, Inc. probably means that his potential appeal to populist AfD voters may be limited.

Merz is more of an old school pro-business, pro-small government, pro-tax cuts, pro-free trade conservative, sort of a cross between being Germany's belated answer to Reagan/Thatcher and a Macron on steroids. He's also not particularly known for being an "anti-immigration" politician although he may certainly be willing to insitute more restrictive refugee policies than Merkel in an effort solidify the support he receives from the CDU's conservatives.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Both Laschet and Spahn have proposed a "team solution"... whatever that means, since this doesn't seem to refer to three co-equal party chairs. So in the end there will still be one leader. In any case, there seems to be growing support within the CDU to find some form of consensus agreement instead of an open contest.

If recent statements by CSU chairman Markus Söder and CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus are any indication, Merz' chances are in a bit of a decline. Yesterday, Söder strongly implied in a TV appearance that he considers Merz to be out of touch due to his 15-year absence from active politics and also a loose cannon who speaks before he thinks (case in point: Merz had to apologize to the AfD's voters last week after he called that party "Gesindel"... this term seem to have many possible translations into English which range from "rifraff" to "vermin"). A couple of days earlier, Brinkhaus urged Merz to show greater team spirit and that "to assume responsibility" for the CDU could also mean that one takes over only the second- or third-most important position.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist: Former environment minister (2009-2012) und incumbent Bundestag foreign affaiers committee chairman Norbert Röttgen has officially announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship.

He'll probably not suceed, but it potentially blows the field and the process wide open. So far, AKK tried to tightly control events and this goes against it.

He is responsible for the worst showing of CDU in the history of NRW, so if elected, we might see a repeat of that on federal level.

First and foremost, Röttgen is another "I've got a score to settle with Merkel" candidacy similar to Merz' candidacy. In 2012, he was fired (and that literally means fired because he had refused to resign) by Merkel as environment minister and scuttblebutt is that he never got over it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, some questions:

-Why isn't Merkel running again? It seems she is the only good candidate CDU has and would lock the Chancellorship for them? Granted that runs the risk of making CDU into "the Merkel party", but I guess it is already that so

Merkel is seen by some in the CDU as the reason why the party lost votes in recent years. The CDU/CSU is currently far below their historical average at 26%-28%. If she'd run again she might become the longest-serving post-WWII Chancellor (and the second-longest overall after Bismarck) and it is already the case that talk about "the forever Chancellor" and "Merkel fatigue" makes the round. But maybe it is for that reason there's also a chance she might lose this time around.

-What would have happened if Merkel had never been chancellor? (Say, red-red-green is formed in 2005 and Merkel ousted not too long after for blowing the election). I imagine CDU still wins 2009, but what beyond that? Does AfD still rise?

Who knows... We could have ended up with Chancellor Roland Koch in 2009.

The AfD was - in essence - originally formed as a responce to the financial crisis in Greece so that wouldn't really change although the party might have developed into a different direction.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the expectations for the contest as it shakes out?

Laschet, Merz, Spahn, and Röttgen either already had or will have soon meetings with AKK. Afterwards, she's planning to propose a specific procesure on how to elect her successor. Röttgen's surprise candidcacy has made some form of open contest as opposed to the consensus team solution much more likely. Laschet and Merz are still seen as the frontrunners, although it also depends on the precise procedure (primary election vs. party convention only).

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU is apparently planning to hold a party convention in late April or early May to elect a new chairman.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Update: The next CDU chairman will be elected at a party convention on April 25.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plot twist:

Armin Laschet is running for the CDU charmainship. Jens Spahn endorses Laschet and runs for deputy. A move that probably solidifies Laschet's frontrunner status.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Norbert Röttgen counters the Laschet/Merz joint ticket by announcing that he will form a team with "a woman".

That's is a pretty nonsensical statement to make because:

- He doesn't say which woman, any woman will apparently do.

- The CDU has five deputy chairs, two of which are at the moment women and irrespective of who Röttgen designates as his "woman deputy" this probably wouldn't change anyway.

- With that in mind it would have made more much more sense for Röttgen to say that at least three of the five deputy chairs should be held by women in order to reach complete gender parity among the six chair/deputy chair positions. But the way he framed it now there will be Röttgen's personal woman deputy and the other female deputy chairs would be "normal" deputy chairs or something.


Schleswig-Holstein's liberal CDU minister-president Daniel Günther was quick to endorse the Laschet/Spahn ticket and also urged Friedrich Merz to integrate himself into that team, implying that Merz should drop his chairmanship candidacy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

My prediction on the outcome of the leadership contest:

We're essentially going to see a rerun of 2018 with Laschet as the new AKK, Merz as Merz, and Röttgen in the role of Spahn (although Röttgen is one of the moderates and not from the conservative wing). In 2018, AKK won 45% on the first ballot, Merz 39%, and Spahn 16%. The second ballot ended with 52% for AKK and 48% for Merz.

Since this morning, Laschet is running as the candidate of a liberal-conservative "unity" ticket. The Spahn endorsement is designed to show that both men are willing and able to cooperate "for the good of the party", while Merz and Röttgen can easily be painted as being on an ego trip now (earlier today I read a report that Merz was offered a cabinet position yesterday in an effort to integrate him in a "team solution" along with Spahn, but that he turned them down.)

Laschet/Spahn are also representing the preferred solution of the party establishment and the CDU is not the really the kind of political party where you're rebelling against the establishment, particularly your own establishment. Leading figures like CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus and CSU chairman Markus Söder had already indicated that they're not really a big fan of Merz due to his perceived egocentrism.

Granted, the CDU is in a very unusual and critical situation right now, but I don't believe that this is enough to push them over the brink and go haywire. On the contrary, perhaps many will think that it is time to stick together more than ever, and Laschet/Spahn is the "sticking together" solution.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Facebook find:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?

This has never been done before. Does the party statutes allow it? At least they don't explicitly forbid it, I guess. However, they'd need to come up with and then organize a procedure for that. Something that may be hard to do if it's decided one or two weeks beforehand. Postponement is more likely IMO.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today, at least four German states have banned all public events events with more than 1,000 attendees, and more states will probably follow suit.

Armin Laschet has said that there ought to be no special dispensation for the CDU party convention on April 25, and a decision on cancellation/postponement will be made sometime next month.

[Middle-aged Europe]

AKK has said the CDU is going to make a decision on whether to cancel the convention at the end of this month.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking:

It's official and much earlier than originally anticipated... the CDU is postponing its party convention, originally scheduled for April 25, to elect a new chairperson. A new date has yet to be determined.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Kramp-Karrenbauer has said that the party convention to elect her successor won't possibly happen before December.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Politico is speculating that Merkel herself could throw her hat in the ring given how her standing among Germans has hit new highs amid the pandemic. They stress that she's still admittedly unlikely to do so, but even then, the only rationale provided is merely that "she rarely reverses course." At this rate, she's gonna end up breaking Bismarck's record

In other news, I called this in this very thread's 3rd reply lol:

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

Unlikely, and if anything she'd run again for another term as Chancellor without returning to the CDU chair position IMO which would still require a leadership contest.

Quite frankly, I don't really know myself where we stand with regards to he succession. Markus Söder as next Chancellor has become much more likely due to Corona. But he's CSU so that doesn't solve the CDU leadership contest either.

Because he doesn't hold any political office right now, Friedrich Merz has pretty much disappeared from public life and public consciousness in recent weeks. Armin Laschet is frequently criticized in the media (and more indirectly, by Angela Merkel) for being too reckless in his desire to "open up the country again" and this may stick, especially when infection rates begin to rise again.

Jens Spahn as the federal health minister is of course at the very center of the current crisis and he generally does a good job at that. However, he did decline to run for the chairmanship shortly before all hell broke lose. So maybe the question is whether he'd be willing to break his pact with Laschet and reconsider a run after all? But were probably months away from that if it happens at all.

Since nobody cares anymore about AKK making gaffes her approvals have again up again too. So, everyone seems to be content with Kramp-Karrenbauer remaining at the top of the party for the time being, although she's definitely being overshadowed by Merkel and Spahn right now. AKK - who's also defense minister - did ruffle some feathers recently for pushing to buy F/A-18E/Fs from the United States without notifiyng and/or getting approval from the SPD, but this was a minor incident, especially in the current corona crisis.