2020 CDU Leadership Contest

[President Johnson]

I hope Armin Laschet wins this one. He's a pragmatic leader and seems to be a nice person. I think he's in a very favorable position since he controls the largest state party.

Obviously the entire crisis of the CDU goes back to the federal election of 2017. Angela Merkel should have declined running a fourth term and clearing the way for a fresh new start. At this point, she's basically just sitting her time out. That's also reflected in the atrocious approval rating for this cabinet. Like Kohl and Adenauer, CDU chancellors lose grip and awareness when it's time to leave.

[President Johnson]

I think Laschet can stop Merz since he's in control of NRW state party, which has by far the most delegates. Merz is also from NRW and would need strong support from eastern state parties to stand a chance if there is a contested convention like in 2018.

[President Johnson]

This "team solution" thing is kind of weird. I don't know why all of a sudden politicians feel this is such a great idea. What's next? Two heads of government serving as "co-chancellor"?

I think Söder himself would actually be a stronger candidate than people think. He might be able to win back some conservative voters due to CSU's more hardline immigration stance, while he started to open the door to Greens. His administration in Bavaria has pursued a lot of environmental policies since he took office, what generally raised my opinion of him. He makes a more mature impression now than at the time he served as Bavarian finance minister. Söder also has some "youth factor", but has practical governing experience (even though state level is vastly different from Berlin).

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Röttgen won't go anywhere. I will never forget how Merkel fired the guy in public literally the day after his disastrous defeat in the 2012 state election. She went before the cameras and said plain and simple (not an exact quote): "Ich habe den Herrn Bundespräsidenten gebeten den Bundesminister für Umwelt und Reaktorsicherheit gemäß Artikel 64 des Grundgesetzes mit sofortiger Wirkung von seinen Aufgaben zu entbinden" ("I have urged the federal president to relieve the federal minister of environment and nuclear safety from his duties immediately in accordance with article 64 of the basic law").

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Merz announcement is pending for tomorrow.

[President Johnson]

I think Laschet has the edge in this race because he de facto controls the NRW delegation and has the broadest support among high ranking CDU officials, especially in the West (like Daniel Günther). If this was a referendum among CDU members, Merz would probably win, though.

Personally I prefer Laschet because he's a moderate pragmatist, but Merz might be better for the political landscape since it draw a clearer distinction between SPD/Greens and the Union.

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

That's sad news. According to recent reports, he's experiencing mild symptoms so far and is in self-quarantine. I wish him a speed and full recovery.

[President Johnson]

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

Cem Özedmir, one of the most prominent Greens, is also infected. He announced this today.

[President Johnson]

CDU/FDP coalition when?

Never. The votes are just not there. While the Union has surged a few points in polls due to Covid, the FDP is doing pretty poorly for some months now. They have changed a number of people at the top, though Lindner is staying on. At least for now. The next coalition is Union and Greens, which has been obvious ever since this term started.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Votes are being counted, but Röttgen is out, per our local radio.

[President Johnson]

Merz: 385 votes
Laschet: 380 votes
Röttgen: 224 votes

Runoff is Lean/Likely Laschet I'd say.

Yeah, Laschet is favored. Röttgen belongs to the centrist wing, like Laschet. I doubt most of his delegates will switch to Merz.

I just hope that Laschet is the chancellor candidate himself then, because he's superior to Söder and Spahn.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: LASCHET HAS WON!

https://twitter.com/tagesschau/status/1350389749438099456

[President Johnson]

Deputies now elected as well. Results are a serious blowback for Health Minister Jens Spahn. He received by far the fewest votes of them, just 589. Volker Bouffier got 806, Julia Klöckner 787, Silvia Breher 777 and Thomas Strobl 670 votes. Maybe a sign the CDU doesn't want him to be chancellor candidate. I certainly hope so. Laschet is much better.

[President Johnson]

Btw, assuming Laschet becomes candidate for Chancellor and wins in 2021, who will succeed him as Governor of NRW?
Maybe Röttgen?

The guy who got fired by Mutti because he delivered the worst state election result for the CDU in NRW ever? No. I think it will be his good buddy Karl-Josef Laumann, Health and Labor Minister of NRW.

The question regarding Röttgen was pure sarcasm. With Röttgen's focus on foreign policy on federal level, it is quite clear he has no ambitions for a statewide office.

And regarding Laumann, yeah, I agree, he seems like the most likely choice (+he is already represented in the national Chair board).

Röttgen would actually be an excellent foreign minister. Better than Maas. I can't believe I'm saying this, given my party membership.

[President Johnson]

Merz was called on to run fair the Chair board, but declined (just as in 2018). He already received much criticism for declining to work within the leadership circle in 2018, so I'd say that this will not really help him (although there's not much more of a career left for him). The opposite can be said for Röttgen.

Selfless Merz refused the offer for a seat in the party executive committee because he would have prevented a woman from occupying that post. Isn't he altruistic?

Friedrich Merz has - as altruistic as he is - instead proposed himself to his newly-elected party chairman as a potential applicant for the Ministry of Economy, currently held by Merkel's "adlatus" Peter Altmaier; but his deadly foe Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, instantly declined his selfless devotion, stating she doesn't intend reshuffling her cabinet...

This was one of the dumbest moves by Merz. However, he revealed his true colors and that not electing him leader was the correct decision. I hope he goes back to Black Rock, where "Mr. Upper Middle Class" belongs.