2020 CDU Leadership Contest
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #50 on: February 25, 2020, 09:00:35 AM »

My prediction on the outcome of the leadership contest:

We're essentially going to see a rerun of 2018 with Laschet as the new AKK, Merz as Merz, and Röttgen in the role of Spahn (although Röttgen is one of the moderates and not from the conservative wing). In 2018, AKK won 45% on the first ballot, Merz 39%, and Spahn 16%. The second ballot ended with 52% for AKK and 48% for Merz.

Since this morning, Laschet is running as the candidate of a liberal-conservative "unity" ticket. The Spahn endorsement is designed to show that both men are willing and able to cooperate "for the good of the party", while Merz and Röttgen can easily be painted as being on an ego trip now (earlier today I read a report that Merz was offered a cabinet position yesterday in an effort to integrate him in a "team solution" along with Spahn, but that he turned them down.)

Laschet/Spahn are also representing the preferred solution of the party establishment and the CDU is not the really the kind of political party where you're rebelling against the establishment, particularly your own establishment. Leading figures like CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus leader Ralph Brinkhaus and CSU chairman Markus Söder had already indicated that they're not really a big fan of Merz due to his perceived egocentrism.

Granted, the CDU is in a very unusual and critical situation right now, but I don't believe that this is enough to push them over the brink and go haywire. On the contrary, perhaps many will think that it is time to stick together more than ever, and Laschet/Spahn is the "sticking together" solution.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #51 on: February 25, 2020, 02:49:32 PM »

I think Laschet has the edge in this race because he de facto controls the NRW delegation and has the broadest support among high ranking CDU officials, especially in the West (like Daniel Günther). If this was a referendum among CDU members, Merz would probably win, though.

Personally I prefer Laschet because he's a moderate pragmatist, but Merz might be better for the political landscape since it draw a clearer distinction between SPD/Greens and the Union.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #52 on: February 25, 2020, 06:14:49 PM »

Facebook find:


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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #53 on: March 07, 2020, 05:20:41 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2020, 05:26:10 AM by Trump/Blagojevich 2020 »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2020, 05:31:51 AM »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #55 on: March 07, 2020, 05:39:48 AM »

Nothing happening here anymore at the moment, mostly for "other reasons".

Jens Spahn is the federal minister of health, Armin Laschet is the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia. Yesterday, Spahn urged the population to abstain from "unnecessary travels" to North Rhine-Westphalia. Nobody really cares what Friedrich Merz does at the moment, because he doesn't hold a political office.

Somewhat surprisingly, nobody has so far brought up the possibility of cancelling the CDU convention in late April. Maybe because these things are generally decided pretty short-notice, one or at best two weeks in advance. I guess the possibility does exist when Spahn urges people not to travel to NRW anymore and a lot of CDU politicians from NRW would travel to Berlin for the party convention....

If delegates can't get to Berlin, are spooked into not attending, &/or are being advised to avoid going entirely, then is remote voting allowed for delegates?

This has never been done before. Does the party statutes allow it? At least they don't explicitly forbid it, I guess. However, they'd need to come up with and then organize a procedure for that. Something that may be hard to do if it's decided one or two weeks beforehand. Postponement is more likely IMO.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #56 on: March 10, 2020, 10:08:51 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2020, 10:18:39 AM by Trump/Blagojevich 2020 »

Today, at least four German states have banned all public events events with more than 1,000 attendees, and more states will probably follow suit.

Armin Laschet has said that there ought to be no special dispensation for the CDU party convention on April 25, and a decision on cancellation/postponement will be made sometime next month.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #57 on: March 10, 2020, 12:42:07 PM »

AKK has said the CDU is going to make a decision on whether to cancel the convention at the end of this month.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #58 on: March 12, 2020, 06:20:18 AM »

Breaking:

It's official and much earlier than originally anticipated... the CDU is postponing its party convention, originally scheduled for April 25, to elect a new chairperson. A new date has yet to be determined.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #59 on: March 17, 2020, 08:49:10 AM »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #60 on: March 17, 2020, 02:06:00 PM »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

That's sad news. According to recent reports, he's experiencing mild symptoms so far and is in self-quarantine. I wish him a speed and full recovery.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #61 on: March 19, 2020, 03:09:55 PM »

Friedrich Merz has been infected with the coronavirus.

Cem Özedmir, one of the most prominent Greens, is also infected. He announced this today.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #62 on: April 14, 2020, 07:05:22 AM »

Kramp-Karrenbauer has said that the party convention to elect her successor won't possibly happen before December.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #63 on: April 29, 2020, 11:27:39 PM »

Politico is speculating that Merkel herself could throw her hat in the ring given how her standing among Germans has hit new highs amid the pandemic. They stress that she's still admittedly unlikely to do so, but even then, the only rationale provided is merely that "she rarely reverses course." At this rate, she's gonna end up breaking Bismarck's record Tongue

In other news, I called this in this very thread's 3rd reply lol:

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #64 on: April 30, 2020, 04:47:07 AM »

Politico is speculating that Merkel herself could throw her hat in the ring given how her standing among Germans has hit new highs amid the pandemic. They stress that she's still admittedly unlikely to do so, but even then, the only rationale provided is merely that "she rarely reverses course." At this rate, she's gonna end up breaking Bismarck's record Tongue

In other news, I called this in this very thread's 3rd reply lol:

They're gonna have to beg Merkel herself to run again, aren't they?

Unlikely, and if anything she'd run again for another term as Chancellor without returning to the CDU chair position IMO which would still require a leadership contest.

Quite frankly, I don't really know myself where we stand with regards to he succession. Markus Söder as next Chancellor has become much more likely due to Corona. But he's CSU so that doesn't solve the CDU leadership contest either.

Because he doesn't hold any political office right now, Friedrich Merz has pretty much disappeared from public life and public consciousness in recent weeks. Armin Laschet is frequently criticized in the media (and more indirectly, by Angela Merkel) for being too reckless in his desire to "open up the country again" and this may stick, especially when infection rates begin to rise again.

Jens Spahn as the federal health minister is of course at the very center of the current crisis and he generally does a good job at that. However, he did decline to run for the chairmanship shortly before all hell broke lose. So maybe the question is whether he'd be willing to break his pact with Laschet and reconsider a run after all? But were probably months away from that if it happens at all.

Since nobody cares anymore about AKK making gaffes her approvals have again up again too. So, everyone seems to be content with Kramp-Karrenbauer remaining at the top of the party for the time being, although she's definitely being overshadowed by Merkel and Spahn right now. AKK - who's also defense minister - did ruffle some feathers recently for pushing to buy F/A-18E/Fs from the United States without notifiyng and/or getting approval from the SPD, but this was a minor incident, especially in the current corona crisis.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #65 on: September 23, 2020, 10:34:24 AM »

Merz links homosexuality to pedophelia:

Quote
Merz, a candidate in the CDU election set to take place in December to find a replacement for Angela Merkel, who is stepping down — made the comment to German media outlet Bild.

On the news segment named "The right questions," Merz was asked whether he would have reservations if a gay chancellor were to lead Germany.

"No," Merz replied to Bild. "Concerning the question of sexual orientation, as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children — at this point I reach my absolute limits — it is not an issue for public discussion."

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-leadership-hopeful-slammed-for-comments-on-homosexuality/a-55008417

Disgusting comments.
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Cassius
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« Reply #66 on: September 23, 2020, 10:40:49 AM »

I haven’t seen the original German so I can’t be sure, but surely he was referring to issues of sexual preference more broadly, given that he prefaced his answer with ‘concerning the question of sexual orientation’?
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crals
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« Reply #67 on: September 24, 2020, 06:28:12 AM »

Merz links homosexuality to pedophelia:

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Merz, a candidate in the CDU election set to take place in December to find a replacement for Angela Merkel, who is stepping down — made the comment to German media outlet Bild.

On the news segment named "The right questions," Merz was asked whether he would have reservations if a gay chancellor were to lead Germany.

"No," Merz replied to Bild. "Concerning the question of sexual orientation, as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children — at this point I reach my absolute limits — it is not an issue for public discussion."

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-leadership-hopeful-slammed-for-comments-on-homosexuality/a-55008417

Disgusting comments.
I believe he was saying the exact opposite?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #68 on: September 24, 2020, 06:41:45 AM »

Merz links homosexuality to pedophelia:

Quote
Merz, a candidate in the CDU election set to take place in December to find a replacement for Angela Merkel, who is stepping down — made the comment to German media outlet Bild.

On the news segment named "The right questions," Merz was asked whether he would have reservations if a gay chancellor were to lead Germany.

"No," Merz replied to Bild. "Concerning the question of sexual orientation, as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children — at this point I reach my absolute limits — it is not an issue for public discussion."

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-cdu-leadership-hopeful-slammed-for-comments-on-homosexuality/a-55008417

Disgusting comments.

??

If the translation is correct, he basically said that all sexual orientations are fine as long as one is not a pedophile?
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Cassius
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« Reply #69 on: September 24, 2020, 11:07:04 AM »

I’m pretty sure Spahn is in the Laschet camp, so I assume this is simply an attempt to discredit Merz with a bit of headline silliness.
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palandio
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« Reply #70 on: September 24, 2020, 11:21:47 AM »

If you want to interpret this in Merz' favor, he was basically trying to say that all sexual orientations are ok and then went on to clarify the obvious limits.

If you want to interpret this in Merz' disfavor, his answer sounded a bit too much like "Gays are ok, as long as they don't molest children".

We're getting on woke terrain here and making unnecessary clarifications can expose you as un-woke.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #71 on: September 24, 2020, 12:01:19 PM »

The fact remains that conflating homosexuality with paedophilia has long been one of the most widespread (not to mention offensive) homophobic memes out there, so people have to be careful.

That's not "woke", just being a decent person.
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palandio
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« Reply #72 on: September 24, 2020, 01:14:49 PM »

Yes, of course people should be careful what they say and try not to be a**!$#?s.

But the fact that several people who I would consider decent persons didn't recognize how unsensible Merz' remark could sound, makes me think that this isn't about being a decent person or not. It's about being aware of how yesterday's platitudes ("as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children") put into the wrong context can evoke highly unfortunate associations and therefore be insensitive. Wokeness in the positive sense includes being aware about that, wokeness in the negative sense includes automatically assuming bad intentions when people fail to follow the code.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #73 on: September 24, 2020, 02:50:47 PM »

Yes, of course people should be careful what they say and try not to be a**!$#?s.

But the fact that several people who I would consider decent persons didn't recognize how unsensible Merz' remark could sound, makes me think that this isn't about being a decent person or not. It's about being aware of how yesterday's platitudes ("as long as it is within the scope of the law and does not concern children") put into the wrong context can evoke highly unfortunate associations and therefore be insensitive. Wokeness in the positive sense includes being aware about that, wokeness in the negative sense includes automatically assuming bad intentions when people fail to follow the code.

I understand what you say.
I guess I just think that jumping on that and calling it "disgusting" belongs more to what you called "wokeness in the negative sense".
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #74 on: September 25, 2020, 02:07:59 PM »

CDU/FDP coalition when?
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