Would Joe Manchin lose if he was up for re-election this year?

[Cyrusman]

If Manchin was up for re-election this year would he lose after voting to convict trump?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes. Though if he was running for re-election he wouldn't have voted for conviction. Pretty much tells you that he's a guaranteed retirement in 2024.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Yes. Though if he was running for re-election he wouldn't have voted for conviction. Pretty much tells you that he's a guaranteed retirement in 2024.

Spot on. Manchin is often a headache, but Democrats will miss him when he's gone.

[SnowLabrador]

Whether or not he voted to convict, he would be crushed under the weight of Trump's presence on the ballot. He only won by 3.3% in a blue wave midterm against a former opioid lobbyist.

[The Mikado]

This is almost certainly Manchin's last term in the Senate. Hell, he was really tempted to run for WV Governor this year and Schumer had to really fight to talk him out of it.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, since the acquittal, Trump polls have gone up in OH, IA and WVA. If it wasnt for Mark Warner,  VA would be in play, but WI is the only path to 270 for Trump. Ojeda is gonna get crushed by SMC

[Gracile]

Manchin's a goner in 2024 whether he retires or not, and he would be in similar trouble if he were up for re-election this year with Trump on the ballot.

[MT Treasurer]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

[Calthrina950]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

[Frenchrepublican]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

No, she would be doomed had she voted for removing Trump. Trump has a 45% electoral base in Maine and she can't win without these voters

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, Manchin would lose without any doubt. With Trump at the top of the ballot even an incompetent moron like Morrissey would prevail

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Ojeda made the blunder of running against SMC, now, he will be damaged goods if Manchin decides to retire in 2024. WVA is gonna have 2 R Senators in 2024

[Calthrina950]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

No, she would be doomed had she voted for removing Trump. Trump has a 45% electoral base in Maine and she can't win without these voters

Notice how I said she would be in a better position if she had voted against Kavanaugh and for impeachment. We'd be in a parallel timeline, in such an instance.

[Frenchrepublican]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

No, she would be doomed had she voted for removing Trump. Trump has a 45% electoral base in Maine and she can't win without these voters

Notice how I said she would be in a better position if she had voted against Kavanaugh and for impeachment. We'd be in a parallel timeline, in such an instance.

Don't see your point. Voting to remove Trump = Voting for impeachment, no ?

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Obviously, but good on him for voting for conviction. Same goes for Jones

[here2view]

He absolutely would lose, but he's going to retire in 2024 regardless.

[Calthrina950]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

No, she would be doomed had she voted for removing Trump. Trump has a 45% electoral base in Maine and she can't win without these voters

Notice how I said she would be in a better position if she had voted against Kavanaugh and for impeachment. We'd be in a parallel timeline, in such an instance.

Don't see your point. Voting to remove Trump = Voting for impeachment, no ?

Yes. What I'm trying to say is that if Collins had also voted to remove Kavanaugh, she would at least be in a solid position to win as an independent, akin to Angus King.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yes, and the seat will flip R regardless of whether or not he runs again in 2024.

[Suburbia]

Manchin's a goner in 2024 whether he retires or not, and he would be in similar trouble if he were up for re-election this year with Trump on the ballot.

[Calthrina950]

Yes, and the seat will flip R regardless of whether or not he runs again in 2024.

I just saw a Fox News clip in which Manchin was interviewed about his decision to convict Trump, and he had to correct the interviewer on the duration of his term (the interviewer mistakenly said he would be up in 2022, not 2024). Manchin of course defended it, and said that he had given Trump "the benefit of the doubt" on many things. He still tried to keep a posture of moderation by saying he would not support any further impeachment efforts against Trump unless if he committed another impeachable offense. But nevertheless, it's all for nothing. Manchin's fellow Senator, Moore-Capito, was also interviewed, and said that "folks back home" weren't happy with his decision-as I would have guessed. Manchin is done for, and his decision to convict has erased whatever remaining thoughts he had of running for political office again in his home state.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, and 2018 was literally his last chance. That he only won by so little, with someone like Morrissey, after all the votes he made...I'm just not convinced he'd make it even if he had voted for acquittal this time.

But he's probably gonna retire in 2024 anyway.

[Non-consecutive Two Term Floridian]

Even a fat pig like MOOrissey would’ve beaten Manchin by like 10 this year, especially after that impeachment vote. Sad!

[Flyersfan232]

Collins really needs to pull a Tester/Manchin if she wins reelection, especially if the Senate is 51R/49D under a Democratic president. This will be her final term anyway.

What would it mean for her to "pull a Manchin"?

Move to the right, as Manchin has moved to the left. Though arguably, given her votes on Kavanaugh and impeachment, she has already done so. As I've stated elsewhere, Collins would be in a much better position for the general election if she had done the opposite on these two things, and could probably win reelection as an independent in such a situation.

No, she would be doomed had she voted for removing Trump. Trump has a 45% electoral base in Maine and she can't win without these voters

Notice how I said she would be in a better position if she had voted against Kavanaugh and for impeachment. We'd be in a parallel timeline, in such an instance.

I don’t she would have lepage endorse by trump challenging her in the primary