Did French Canadian Americans swing to Trump?

[Diabolical Materialism]

French Canadian Americans in the US are largely confined to the northern most counties of upper New England. Essex County in Vermont and Coos county in New Hampshire have the largest numbers of those speaking French at home in their respective states, and they both swung pretty heavily to Trump. Maine CD-2 also has a sizable French-speaking minority.

So did French Canadian Americans swing to Trump, and if so, why?

[VPH]

I don't know of specific ethnic data, but if you look at where the population is strongest, those places swung towards Trump heavily. Multiple reasons:

1. Tends to be a working-class White community, which could mean falling into national trends, especially as they've become less ethnically distinctive. Similar to other "White ethnic" groups in this way.
2. Also, it's a Catholic voting bloc with socially conservative tendencies. There were more than a few Clinton-anti marijuana-pro minimum wage increase towns in Arostook County and in other French Canadian areas. Democrats seem to be losing this kind of voter.
3. The effect is probably more prominent in rural French Canadian communities, where notions of rural consciousness and community decline play into realignment too.

[Sumner 1868]

Yeah, just look at the towns along the St. John Valley in Maine.

Frenchville
2012: Obama 69.40%, Romney 28.03%
2016: Trump 51.32%, Clinton 43.42%

Fort Kent
2012: Obama 67.02%, Romney 30.44%
2016: Trump 47.21%, Clinton 46.69%

St. Agatha
2012: Obama 70.12%, Romney 28.30%
2016: Trump 48.78%, Clinton 45.10%

This was true even in the towns where Clinton still won.

Madawaska
2012: Obama 73.61%, Romney 24.43%
2016: Clinton 54.69%, Trump 39.23%

Grand Isle
2012: Obama 74.68%, Romney 22.32%
2016: Clinton 54.71%, Trump 41.70%

Wallagrass
2012: Obama 71.83%, Romney 27.11%
2016: Clinton 52.92%, Trump 43.64%

Here's what wikipedia says about historical patterns:

Walker (1962) examines the voting behavior in U.S. presidential elections from 1880 to 1960, using election returns from 30 Franco-American communities in New England, along with sample survey data for the 1948-60 elections. From 1896 to 1924, Franco-Americans typically supported the Republican Party because of its conservatism, emphasis on order, and advocacy of the tariff to protect the textile workers from foreign competition. In 1928, with Catholic Al Smith as the Democratic candidate, the Franco-Americans moved over to the Democratic column and stayed there for six presidential elections. They formed part of the New Deal Coalition. Unlike the Irish and German Catholics, very few Franco-Americans deserted the Democratic ranks because of the foreign policy and war issues of the 1940 and 1944 campaigns. In 1952 many Franco-Americans broke from the Democrats but returned heavily in 1960.

Drumpf reviving (however disingenuously) traditional GOP protectionism was clearly crucial in swinging these voters.

[Diabolical Materialism]

Did this group support LePage heavily? I know that he was a native French speaker and was vaguely Trumpian policy and personality-wise.

[Figueira]

French Canadian Americans in the US are largely confined to the northern most counties of upper New England.

False. They're all over New England. The US Census undercounts them because they often list their ancestry as just "French" or "Canadian" but they're really the same thing.

And yeah, I would guess that they swung to Trump.

[Diabolical Materialism]

French Canadian Americans in the US are largely confined to the northern most counties of upper New England.

False. They're all over New England. The US Census undercounts them because they often list their ancestry as just "French" or "Canadian" but they're really the same thing.

And yeah, I would guess that they swung to Trump.

I was just going by what I saw on the census

[Gracile]

Trump's performance among French-Canadian Americans largely helped him flip Maine's 2nd congressional district - an electoral vote that eluded the GOP for decades.

[Hatman 🍁]

If they immigrated pre-1960s, then they wouldn't have been caught up in the Quiet revolution, and therefore are more likely to be socially conservative.

[Downeaster89]

Here in Maine they did big. Especially in Aroostook and Androscoggin Counties