2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[dpmapper]

The three core Detroit counties (Oakland, Macomb, Wayne) are slightly over 5 districts.  There should be one solely in Macomb and one solely in Oakland.  One AA district can take the excess Macomb population and the other can take Southfield, leaving one district to take the southern and western tier of Wayne, plus most of the rest of Oakland.  

The 10 counties in the Detroit CSA are just shy of 7 districts, which logically means one district from Monroe to Washtenaw and then one district from Flint to St Clair, splitting Livingston between them.  It's pretty perfect, actually.  

The rest falls into place pretty naturally: a Grand Rapids district including suburbs in Ottawa, a Lake Michigan district, a Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Jackson district, a Lansing-centered district, a Midland-Saginaw-Bay City-thumb district centered on Saginaw Bay, and the north.  

This map has 5 Clinton districts (the 4 in Wayne/Oakland + the Ann Arbor district) but the Lansing district is only Trump +2 and is more Democratic downballot, and the Flint district is Trump +10 but is basically even if you add 2012 to 2016.  

[dpmapper]

Flint really belongs with Saginaw, maybe not Midland and Bay, but at least it should have Saginaw in with it.  If there's 1 real COI on the whole map outside the Detroit metro, it would be Flint with the Tri-Cities area.

The Detroit CSA is an objective measure of COI, but if you insist, here's a version with Genesee + Saginaw + Genesee-adjacent leftovers from neighboring districts.  It's Trump +2.  

[dpmapper]

The aim of the commission is not to draw a bipartisan gerrymander. It's to draw a fair map that prioritises COIs while making sure it doesn't advantage either party (and yes that means adjusting for the geographic disadvantage).

COIs yes, but I don't see why adjusting for the geographic disadvantage is a necessary part of the commission's responsibilities.  I'm sure some on the commission would think so, but not all. 

[dpmapper]

I would think Romulus and Inkster should be in the AA districts to get their numbers up. 

[dpmapper]

My latest version, which solves the Livingston problem by pairing with Washtenaw and Oakland in a coherent D+1.66 district that is quickly trending more D.  Oakland, Macomb and Wayne each have a district entirely within them.  The-Oakland only district is D+0.76 but Clinton won by 5.  The white parts of Wayne are reasonably paired with Monroe; it's basically a tossup district (DRA says R+0.61).  Flint/Saginaw and Lansing/Isabella districts are D+3 and D+0.15 but Trump very narrowly won both. 

[dpmapper]

Oakland to Newaygo and Wayne to St. Joseph just aren't good districts. 

I particularly like my latest map because the district shapes are incredibly compact -- 3 of them are basically perfect rectangles, and the Flint, Washtenaw and Lansing districts are really good shapes as well (in addition to being decent COIs).  I might swap Newaygo for Barry in the Grand Rapids district; that's the only real annoyance I have. 

[dpmapper]

My latest iteration (this time with 2016 populations) -- you can have a reasonable pan-Huron district if you just keep all of Bay.  The Flint district takes Midland and was won by Clinton.  The Lansing-Mt. Pleasant district is fairly coherent, Trump won here by less than a point.  Muskegon down to Benton Harbor/St. Joseph is coherent, Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Jackson works well, and Monroe is paired with southern Wayne rather than counties to its west.

[dpmapper]

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 

[dpmapper]

So other than Dearborn and Dearborn Heights (and maybe Hamtramck if you can manage it) it doesn't seem to be worth it to try to connect any other particular town for the sake of the Arab Americans?

Monroe doesn't naturally belong with Dearborn but the outer portions of Wayne would seem to be just fine; better that than rural counties to the west.  I don't see what it really has to do with a college town like Ann Arbor other than "somewhat outside Detroit". 

[dpmapper]

That is a very nice map.  About the only thing I'd quibble with is the 8th's long western tail. 

[dpmapper]

You may be able to keep Battle Creek if you give most/all of Allegan to the 2nd; that way Holland isn't split. 

[dpmapper]

I think Calhoun is destined to be split.  If you want to make things even more compact you could give Barry to the Lansing district, split Allegan between 2 and 5, and then lop off the top of the Lansing district and put it back into 2.