2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Tekken_Guy]

Some thoughts on incumbents:

-John Moolenaar and Dan Kildee live not too far from each other. They could potentially be in a district together.
-Elissa Slotkin wil almost certainly have her hometown of Holly be put into a Solidly R district. She’d probably have to run to Lansing to be viable.
-Andy Levin is also in deep trouble. Assuming he gets a district entirely in Macomb County, he’ll be a heavy underdog. His opponent will most likely be the next MI-10 rep.
-All of the major MI-3 candidates are from the Grand Rapids area which means it’s clear what district they’ll be running in in 2022.
-Fred Upton will almost certainly retire in 2022 if he doesn’t do so this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

A few questions here:

Would Debbie Dingell run in the Western Wayne district or the Washtenaw-based district here?

What happens to the Oakland County reps (Stevens, Slotkin, Levin, Lawrence)? They all live in Oakland but there's only two seats in the county.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, maybe you're right. Upton's seat is more Republican-friedly and Huizenga may force Upton to retire, but also Meijer's district contains far more of former district of Huizenga than Upton's district

If Moolenaar choses to run against Kildee then Huizenga will probably run in the 2nd.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, maybe you're right. Upton's seat is more Republican-friedly and Huizenga may force Upton to retire, but also Meijer's district contains far more of former district of Huizenga than Upton's district

If Moolenaar choses to run against Kildee then Huizenga will probably run in the 2nd.

Moolenaar declared that he will run in MI-02

Oh, I didn't know that.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah, for the most part the non-black areas of the cracked districts are still Democratic leaning so all the newly drawn districts should still lean Democratic, even if some of them won’t be safe anymore.

[Tekken_Guy]

Would the main partisan impact of this be taking the black majority areas out of SD-11 and SD-12?  I can't really see anything else on the map that would change in any meaningful way. 

They can make either SD-1 or SD-2 closer to black majority at the expense of the other, but that doesn't really change either away from Safe D (not even close really).

No, the black areas are very small portions of SD-11 and SD-12. It’s likely they touch districts like 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 more, all of which have large black areas yet none are black majority.