2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan  (Read 40818 times)
Water Hazard
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« on: February 13, 2020, 01:42:34 PM »



Here's a Detroit metro arrangement I like. Two districts over 50% AA and each of Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb gets its own non-VRA district. Of course, it'd result in an Ann Arbor/Rural pairing and no Flint to Saginaw Bay district like the current CD 5.
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Water Hazard
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Posts: 68


« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2020, 10:39:18 AM »

What does the rest of the map look like? Presumably the numbers would work for putting Livingston in with Washtenaw, which is a better fit than more rural counties.

There's a lot of ways you could draw the state outside of the metro; here I wanted to get the whole Lansing area in one district. You could swap territory between 7 and 8 and get a Livingston/Washtenaw/Monroe district that doesn't look too bad. Not great from a COI standpoint either IMO but it's a hard area to deal with.

I do agree with Idaho Conservative that the best fit for Livingston is probably pairing it with exurban Oakland, but that requires a different arrangement for most of the metro. I've also been playing with Washtenaw/Ingham, though that does sort of tilt the rest of the map in Republicans' favor.
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Water Hazard
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Posts: 68


« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2020, 08:09:39 PM »



I tried my best to satisfy the important COI considerations that have been discussed.

1: UP and northern LP
2: Northern Lake Michigan coast and interior
3: Grand Rapids and relevant Ottawa County suburbs
4: Lansing metro area and surrounding rural areas
5: Genesee County and the tri-cities
6: Southwestern MI, with Kalamazoo and Battle Creek
7: South Central MI and right-trending Wayne suburbs
8: Livingston and Oakland exurbs/outer suburbs
9: Oakland and Macomb inner/middle suburbs
10: Thumb and exurban Macomb
11: Most of Detroit and nearby suburbs
12: Washtenaw and upscale, left-trending western Wayne
13: Western Detroit and blackest parts of Oakland

Districts 4, 5, and 9 would be highly competitive.

The 7th is sort of the "leftovers" district, but I like the arrangement it allows for the 12th and it's pretty uniformly right-trending areas, at least. You could alternatively put the remainder of Wayne with Monroe (almost exactly a full district) and get another competitive district, but that means putting Ann Arbor with rural areas and that's something I wanted to avoid.
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Water Hazard
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Posts: 68


« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2020, 01:34:01 PM »



I tried my best to satisfy the important COI considerations that have been discussed.

1: UP and northern LP
2: Northern Lake Michigan coast and interior
3: Grand Rapids and relevant Ottawa County suburbs
4: Lansing metro area and surrounding rural areas
5: Genesee County and the tri-cities
6: Southwestern MI, with Kalamazoo and Battle Creek
7: South Central MI and right-trending Wayne suburbs
8: Livingston and Oakland exurbs/outer suburbs
9: Oakland and Macomb inner/middle suburbs
10: Thumb and exurban Macomb
11: Most of Detroit and nearby suburbs
12: Washtenaw and upscale, left-trending western Wayne
13: Western Detroit and blackest parts of Oakland

Districts 4, 5, and 9 would be highly competitive.

The 7th is sort of the "leftovers" district, but I like the arrangement it allows for the 12th and it's pretty uniformly right-trending areas, at least. You could alternatively put the remainder of Wayne with Monroe (almost exactly a full district) and get another competitive district, but that means putting Ann Arbor with rural areas and that's something I wanted to avoid.

And this my friends is what you get if you try to preserve the gerrymandered lines as best as possible. I applaud your efforts to update them, but they are still tainted.

Michigan has changed so much in the last decade that a 2010 gerrymander looks nothing like a 2020 one. The biggest similarity I see here- the 5/9/10 arrangement- was advantageous for the GOP last decade but is likely now Dem-favoring. The Flint district is drawn about as favorably for Dems as it can be (it could easily be split into two double digit Trump districts via the Thumb), and doing so limits the ways 9 and 10 can be compactly drawn, so that's why that portion ends up looking similar. Besides that, many of these districts have a significantly different character than the current ones.

Overall, I think it ends up being pretty fair from a partisan standpoint, at least relative to a reasonable gerrymander for either side.
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