2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Idaho Conservative]

What does the rest of the map look like? Presumably the numbers would work for putting Livingston in with Washtenaw, which is a better fit than more rural counties.

There's a lot of ways you could draw the state outside of the metro; here I wanted to get the whole Lansing area in one district. You could swap territory between 7 and 8 and get a Livingston/Washtenaw/Monroe district that doesn't look too bad. Not great from a COI standpoint either IMO but it's a hard area to deal with.

I do agree with Idaho Conservative that the best fit for Livingston is probably pairing it with exurban Oakland, but that requires a different arrangement for most of the metro. I've also been playing with Washtenaw/Ingham, though that does sort of tilt the rest of the map in Republicans' favor.

While Livingston being paired with Lansing isn't ideal, your map is better than most I've seen here due to compact.  The three counties which make up Lansing are a COI and that's good they were kept together.  I would also say Washtenaw is a better match for Wayne but again, I get that changes stuff elsewhere.

[Idaho Conservative]

Optimal map for metro Detroit
Yellow: Clinton+56  (45% black VRA seat)
Blue: Clinton+42   (47% black VRA seat)
Red: Clinton+26
Pink: Clinton+13
Green: Trump+20
Purple: Trump+16

Districts are compact, follow VRA, communities of interest are largely kept together.  Also a 4D-2R breakdown is fair for the metro with 2 districts having potential to be competitive in a wave election (purple and pink).

[Idaho Conservative]

Should the tri-cities area be considered a COI?

[Idaho Conservative]

yeah weird doughnut districts should be avoided.  Livingston should be paired with North and western Oakland, not Ann Arbor.  Also there should be more of an attempt to make a tri cities district.  This means Flint can be paired with the Thumb or Lansing.  I'd say the Thumb makes more sense overall but pairing it with Lansing created a D district.  Otherwise there won't be a Dem seat out of Detroit, just tossups.

[Idaho Conservative]

2012/2016 composite data

1 Detroit Exurbs, Livingston+outer Oakland
2 WWC suburbs, Macomb
3 Highly Educated suburbs, southeast Oakland+northwest Wayne
4 VRA Urban Detroit
5 VRA Inner suburbs
6 Lansing, Mount Pleasant, and rural central MI
7 UP and northern mitten, Traverse City
8 Southwest Coast, Muskegon and Holland
9 Ann Arbor, southern Wayne, Monroe County
10 Grand Rapids and eastern Ottowa County
11 Flint and thumb
12 Tri Cities area, rural central and western MI
13 Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Jackson. rural southern MI

I like how I keep most COIs together throughout the state. Flint gets its own district without competing with another city, Tri Cities get their own district, Lansing metro is kept whole and the Northern suburbs of Detroit don't get ripped apart by being put with urban or rural areas.  I get that the thin strip in district 8 is ugly, but after the 2010 census it will be thicker, taking up the western half of Ottawa County.  I've seen too many maps doing weird stuff like doughnuts, half of Macomb with Detroit, cutting Oakland county 10 ways 'til Sunday, pairing Flint with the Detroit suburbs, an Oakland county to western MI seat YUCK!.  I see way more concern for the exact partisan makeup of the seats and less for MI communities.  

[Idaho Conservative]

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.

Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

[Idaho Conservative]

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

No, cracking would be splitting Gennesee county.  Saginaw and Flint being in different districts is not cracking, they are not a metro or COI.  The tri cities are much more of a community than Flint and Saginaw are.

[Idaho Conservative]

why is half this thread just idaho conservative posting gerrymanders/praising himself for “keeping COIs together”

because you don't

[Idaho Conservative]

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.

Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

[Idaho Conservative]

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.

Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

It's explicitly not a region based on that link. Midland, Saginaw and Bay City are all separate MSAs. The "Central Michigan" region as defined by the state of Michigan also includes Flint as well as Mount Pleasant and some rural counties.

Well it's not a metro but a region which is a CSA.  Not all CSAs can be kept together but this can.  Tri cities are more a region than Flint and Saginaw.  The tri cities have economic ties and share an airport.

[Idaho Conservative]

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.

Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

[Idaho Conservative]

Most Clear COIs:
6 county Detroit area
3 county Lansing area
UP
Thumb
Flint
Grand Rapids and suburbs in eastern Ottawa county

Other COIs that should be respected if possible:
Macomb
Livingston+exurban Oakland
Tri-Cities Area
Ann Arbor+college educated communities in western Wayne
Arab communities in Wayne
Kalamazoo-Battle Creek
Huron Coast

[Idaho Conservative]

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.

Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

Let's look at the actual criteria for COI:

The constitution prioritizes the criteria:

(1) Equal Population.
(2) Contiguity
(3) COI " Districts shall reflect the state's diverse population and communities of interest. Communities of interest may include, but shall not be limited to, populations that share cultural or historical characteristics or economic interests."
(4) Political fairness.
(5) Not favoring/disfavoring incumbent or candidate.
(6) Reflect consideration of county, city, and township boundaries.
(7) Reasonably compact.

The existence of minority communities can fairly clearly be argued to be a cultural characteristic (and to some extent also reflects historic economic patterns.) Historically, Genesee and the bulk of Saginaw's population have been in the same congressional district since 1992 and Saginaw and Midland haven't been in the same district since at least 1972. And yes, post-industrial cities rapidly losing population have more in common with each economically other than they do with rural areas with no industrial heritage whatsoever.

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

I thought it had been settled metro Detroit was a COI.  Exurban Detroit with the Thumb makes no sense.  The thumb would go better with Flint, tri cities, or the rest of the coast.  Detroit is its own thing.

[Idaho Conservative]

2012/2016 composite

Well I listened to complaints and made adjustments, now there's a Flint-Saginaw-Midland district which votes Dem in the last 2 elections, albeit narrowly in 2016.  Now the Thumb is part of a Huron Coast district.  I still prefer the previous map, but this one would be more passable being 7-6. 

[Idaho Conservative]

For what it's worth, you appear to be using 2010 census figures (thus the larger Grand Rapids-based district than my map, e.g., and the bigger split of Lenawee), which may be skewing the map in other ways. 2016 estimates are not the same as what will be reported in the 2020 census, of course, but they should be closer to 2020 than 2010 figures would be.

my map adjusted for 2016 population estimates.  GR area looks better.

[Idaho Conservative]

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.

Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

And Lansing and the thumb have better partners than Flint. Remember how I said that the rural, Lakeshore oriented, thumb is best paired with the upstate. How it is something every Michigan resident I have consulted with agrees to? Hell, Even
 Dave Wasserman in a hypothetical map linked the two. Well, we cannot link the two via water across the bay. Therefore, going through Bay City is the easiest solution. Guess what? Flint + Saginaw + Midland is a viable cd, with a bit more tacked on of course.

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.

Districts should be contiguous unless they physically can't be (like the UP).  I think the vast majority of people would agree.

[Idaho Conservative]

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.

Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lasing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.

[Idaho Conservative]

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.

Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lansing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.

A Thumb+N Macomb/Oakland district seems like the best way to balance COIs. A Thumb+N Michigan would be better but then you either split the Tri Cities or force Flint into a horrid pairing with the Detroit exurbs or combined with Lansing in a clear gerrymander. The Thumb doesn't really have anywhere good to go that doesn't mess with other COIs, but combining it with the Detroit exurbs and rural fringe seems like the pairing that causes the least harm. And I don't think anyone debates that the 4th will be the seat that's eliminated. Hard to see how the 4th could possibly survive, really.

Here is a map with a Flint+Tri Cities district.  Overall a pretty fair map and I could see the commission passing something like this.  Likely a 7R-6D map but either side could pick off another seat or 2 in a good year.

[Idaho Conservative]

So after everyone discussed COIs a while back, I decided to explore a map that was mainly based on COIs. It ended up unusual. The 'guiding' districts in this case were CD5 which has all of the tri-cities and Flint, CD4 which crosses the Saginaw river to link the Thump and the Upstate, CD1 which actually gets all of the non-urbanized west coast, and CD7 which puts all the notable central MI college towns together. CD9 gets the Grosse Pointe's because their local lines cross the border of Wayne and Macomb. One of the AA seats has all the arabs, as I tend to prefer when possible. The main victim of the mid-state getting their COI's is CD8, but it isn't affected too much as far as pop distribution is concerned.

Trump won 7 seats when he won by less than 1%. When whitmer won by 10% she no only got the 6 Clinton seats and the swingy Macomb seat, she also got the Grand Rapids seat by <3K votes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7f30e42-14ef-444d-a14b-2e7b25639720

The GR district should go into Ottawa, not rural areas to the east.  Also, D-8 can be kept within Livingston and Oakland.

[Idaho Conservative]

Since we are on the topic of Arab communities, I decided to go download the latest ACS data and see for myself what the present lay of the ground is. Here is a map of all people claiming Mid-Eastern descent in the metro - not just Arabs but Turks, Iranians, and others that would prefer being in the arab seat to anywhere else. Compared to the more limited view shown above, the Larger Arab pockets in Dearborn, Dearborn heights and Hamtramk have expanded. This is mainly because of the turnover since then, Arabs moving in and the older residents moving out. The map though also captures the Arab Christians that I mentioned earlier to the west of Dearborn - Assyrians, Lebanese, and others who may be missed by a more limited scope. If we are solely confining the Arab or Arab+AA seat to Wayne, and preventing it from tendrilling into the suburbs, then those western towns are the next best additions. There is this idea of doing parallel cuts into Oakland, so that the Arab seat can grab more Arabs and the AA seat grabs Pontiac, however such things appear to be banned by the commission.

West Macomb is a surprise, must be Christians.  Arabs are very divided by religion.  Arab Christians and Muslims wouldn't make a COI, about as much if a COI as jews and muslms lol.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is my take on a 13-district Michigan:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3b2fa2-7fcd-4b0d-adeb-6347e4ef6b63

Tries to preserve COIs, but the breakdown is as follows:

MI-01: Northern Michigan, Trump +21, Safe R
MI-02: Muskegon and the remnant of current MI-04, Trump +18, Safe R
MI-03: Grand Rapids, Ionia/Barry/Montcalm, Trump +9, Lean R
MI-04: Lansing, Saginaw, and rural areas in between, Clinton +5, Lean D
MI-05: Flint, Livingston, Western Oakland, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-06: Kalamazoo, SW Michigan, inland Ottawa County, Trump +14, Likely R
MI-07: Monroe County, Indiana border, Trump +23, Safe R
MI-08: Pontiac, Troy, West Bloomfield, southern Oakland, Clinton +12, Likely D
MI-09: southern Macomb County, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-10: northern Macomb, NE Oakland, the Thumb, and Bay City, Trump +29, Safe R
MI-11: Washtenaw and western Wayne, Clinton +21, Safe D
MI-12: Wyandotte, Romulus, central Wayne County, 45.6% black, Clinton +46, Safe D
MI-13: downtown Detroit, 56.3% black, Clinton +67, Safe D

Overall, I think this map has an ample amount of competitive districts. Districts 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 10 should likely go to the GOP. Districts 4, 5, and 9 are competitive but should be winnable for the right Dem (Levin, Kildee, the Macomb executive, etc). Districts 8, 11, 12, and 13 are all solid D holds. Overall, this leads to a 4D-3C-6R spread, which would roughly average out to 6D-7R or 7D-6R. Trends as well will make the 4/5/9 combo, as well as MI-3 and to a lesser extent MI-6 competitive.

Finally, a Dem who draws fair districts.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

Monroe can be included too.   Wayne County basically has 2.5 districts at this point. 
Not really, Ann Arbor works ok with the 3 Western cities in Wayne but anything not part of the 2 VRA seats should be put with Monroe.

[Idaho Conservative]

I don't care for the Ann Arbor-Livingston thing either, but my hand was kind of forced by drawing two majority (not plurality) Black districts, which will probably be done by the commission since it's still possible. That means the Dingell district has to take more of Wayne, and that's too much to still include Ann Arbor. I'd be happy to hear your suggestions, but I didn't want to f[inks] up the balance I got in the other part of the state by drawing Ann Arbor into 6th or whatever.

 I'd be happy to see a recommendation which has two majority Black districts and does nicer things with Ann Arbor though

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole

Grand Rapids is whole..

the metro

[Idaho Conservative]

My take on a fair map.  For communities of interest, I mostly used metro areas and municipal/county borders.  2 black VRA seats+a black opportunity seat in the suburbs, 25% black.  But Levin would likely represent it.  In terms of partisan outcome, my map is decent if you take into account 2018 and 2012, but if 2016 trends continue, it would probably end up with 8 Republicans.  But who knows, Whitmer won the Flint/Thumb district so Kildee could survive there awhile.