2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[lfromnj]

CVparty?
Opinion of these metro changes based on your map?

The median district is still Trump +5 but its now the Macomb seat. The lansing seat moves to Trump +2.4. The Flint seat is Clinton +0.6.

Also changed the cut of Flint county I took but didn't really make a major difference.

[Idaho Conservative]

A good government R map.  Keeps cities and metro areas/COIs together, but would probably be 9-4.  Each red district is at least Trump+10.  In 2010 Steven Wolf would love this tho LOL. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Michigan map premised on competitive districts.
10, 11, 12, and 13 are all safe Dem; 1, 2, 4 and 6 are safe GOP; and the rest of the districts are at least fairly evenly divided, if not very evenly divided. The map does have a slight GOP lean but I wouldn't make much of it.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/67c4b87b-568c-4733-93eb-06bf4571758d

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This was done without looking at partisan data. Emphasis was on county integrity and having an all-Oakland CD. Unlike the previous map it has 2 black-plurality seats, not just one.
Only 6 county splits.
7, 11, 12, and 13 are Democratic. 1, 2, 3, and 4 are Republican. Not all of these 8 seats are safe. All other districts are too competitive to consider leaning too much to either party.
Ironically, while not aiming specifically for more competitive seats, I got a more competitive map than last time.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/530ccacc-b579-42c9-99fb-785785196b7d

[Idaho Conservative]

This was done without looking at partisan data. Emphasis was on county integrity and having an all-Oakland CD. Unlike the previous map it has 2 black-plurality seats, not just one.
Only 6 county splits.
7, 11, 12, and 13 are Democratic. 1, 2, 3, and 4 are Republican. Not all of these 8 seats are safe. All other districts are too competitive to consider leaning too much to either party.
Ironically, while not aiming specifically for more competitive seats, I got a more competitive map than last time.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/530ccacc-b579-42c9-99fb-785785196b7d

Here's a similar map with 5 Clinton districts instead of 4, but fewer competitive districts.
According to the 2012-2018 composite, 6, 9, 11, 12, and 13 are solidly Republican, 5 and 10 lean Republican, 7 is highly competitive, 8 leans Democrat, and 1, 2, 3, and 4 are solidly Democratic.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/00ba0430-eccf-4ee4-9cb5-82090bd38e07

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rbeggin/status/1295417327849177093?s=20

Commissioners have been chosen.

[Sol]

Here's another shot at Michigan--IMO this is my favorite map I've made yet. Here's the DRA link.





The only town or township split is Clinton Charter Township, in Macomb County, which has such humongous municipalities that it makes not splitting something rather difficult.

MI-11 and MI-12 are both majority-Black.

Let me know if there any issues with the image displays.

[dpmapper]

That is a very nice map.  About the only thing I'd quibble with is the 8th's long western tail. 

[Sol]

That is a very nice map.  About the only thing I'd quibble with is the 8th's long western tail. 

Yeah, not my favorite. Though it's kind of forced if you want to put Battle Creek in with Kalamazoo. Forumites, are those two particularly connected?

[dpmapper]

You may be able to keep Battle Creek if you give most/all of Allegan to the 2nd; that way Holland isn't split. 

[Sol]

How about this?



Still had to split Calhoun, but I do agree that the 8th is nicer when conciser.

[dpmapper]

I think Calhoun is destined to be split.  If you want to make things even more compact you could give Barry to the Lansing district, split Allegan between 2 and 5, and then lop off the top of the Lansing district and put it back into 2. 

[lfromnj]

It seems the most important decision is regarding Macomb and the Thumb. Keeping a district fully with Macomb all but forces Levin and Stevens together while also putting Flint with the thumb which should be Likely GOP.

However keeping something like the current MI 10th will help D's a decent bit even if the Detroit districts expand as Washentaw can take all the red territory and still remain Safe D.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/rbeggin/status/1295417327849177093?s=20

Commissioners have been chosen.

Are these just random people, like a jury trial, or do they have certain qualifications? Pretty cool if it's the former.

[Torie]

[avishwanath28]

map

What is partisan breakdown of that map? Looks like 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 are Republican, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 are Democratic, and 4 and 11 are swingy?

[Torie]

map

What is partisan breakdown of that map? Looks like 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 are Republican, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 are Democratic, and 4 and 11 are swingy?

3 is lean Dem I suspect, and 5 could go swingy if the Dutch belt keeps moving to the Dems. The only really pretty safe CD's for the Pubs are 1 and 7. At the moment 4 is probably tilt Pub, but may not be that way for long. The one really swing CD is 11, and it will go tilt Dem if trends continue. Trump 2020 probably got beaten pretty badly there, but he was a horrible fit for that CD this year.

The way the trends have played out, there are a lot more competitive CD's in MI, which is a beautiful thing.

[Mr.Phips]

map

What is partisan breakdown of that map? Looks like 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 are Republican, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 are Democratic, and 4 and 11 are swingy?

3 is lean Dem I suspect, and 5 could go swingy if the Dutch belt keeps moving to the Dems. The only really pretty safe CD's for the Pubs are 1 and 7. At the moment 4 is probably tilt Pub, but may not be that way for long. The one really swing CD is 11, and it will go tilt Dem if trends continue. Trump 2020 probably got beaten pretty badly there, but he was a horrible fit for that CD this year.

The way the trends have played out, there are a lot more competitive CD's in MI, which is a beautiful thing.

I think 3 would lean Republican and 4 and 11 would be the swing districts.

[Torie]

map

What is partisan breakdown of that map? Looks like 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 are Republican, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13 are Democratic, and 4 and 11 are swingy?

3 is lean Dem I suspect, and 5 could go swingy if the Dutch belt keeps moving to the Dems. The only really pretty safe CD's for the Pubs are 1 and 7. At the moment 4 is probably tilt Pub, but may not be that way for long. The one really swing CD is 11, and it will go tilt Dem if trends continue. Trump 2020 probably got beaten pretty badly there, but he was a horrible fit for that CD this year.

The way the trends have played out, there are a lot more competitive CD's in MI, which is a beautiful thing.

I think 3 would lean Republican and 4 and 11 would be the swing districts.

Well you can peruse the numbers yourself and make up your own mind. It is harder than it used to be to predict these things with the complexion of the partisan coalitions in such a state of flux.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5fbe65c-1976-45b4-a98f-ab09f694fad4

Well that does not seem to work. Sorry.

[Torie]

[lfromnj]

Honestly I would give Bay and the county to the north to the 1st and give Leelanau and Grand Traverse to the 2nd.

[Torie]

Honestly I would give Bay and the county to the north to the 1st and give Leelanau and Grand Traverse to the 2nd.

Your wish is my command.

[Former President tack50]

For fun decided to try and make a fair State senate map:



Detroit area inset:


https://davesredistricting.org/join/e7e3428a-47d3-490a-88b2-f6bde8043a81

Per DRA, there should be 18 Republican districts, 11 Democratic districts and 8 competitive districts.

The tipping point districts would be:

Dem majority: District 34 (Muskegon area): Trump+10, R+3
Tie: District 13 (Southeast Macomb County); Trump+9, R+2
Rep majority: District 22 (Saginaw area): Trump+7, R+2

So basically this map would make the state senate likely R, but not 100% safe

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just to see if it's possible given how easy a 9-4 GOP gerry is, a solid attempt at a 9-4 Dem gerry. Every Dem incumbent resides in their own seat except for Slotkin who really lives in the worst place possible, though I assume she'd move to the 7th. The 3rd is marginal but trending blue while the 4th and 11th are both zooming right.
Overall it turned out a lot better than I was expecting.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9f0a01dd-f779-4b11-82ce-ed008b8a1ce9

[kwabbit]

My first attempt at a fair Michigan map. I tried to minimize county and city splits, but in doing so I mistakenly created a mild GOP gerrymander. Detroit is kept whole, but the result is a Dem pack, but I think Detroit should be kept whole if it can be. The data is President 2016. Biden likely flipped the Lansing CD and possibly flipped the Grand Rapids CD, but the likely breakdown was 4-9 in 2016 and 5-8 in 2020. I tried to make a thumb seat but that involved incorporating Flint, which cost Dems a seat. Not making a seat that went across Macomb and Oakland probably cost another seat. The map could've been 9-4 with a pro-Dem drawn while still being fair.