2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[lfromnj]

Tbf Ann Arbor doesn't really go well anywhere, the closest county in a cultural term is probably Ingham which splits 2 metroes and is also a GOP gerrymander.

[Sol]

Tbf Ann Arbor doesn't really go well anywhere, the closest county in a cultural term is probably Ingham which splits 2 metroes and is also a GOP gerrymander.

It does have a certain Detroit metro aspect to it though, no? That said the closest cultural companions to Ann Arbor are Ferndale and co., who aren't exactly easy to put in a Washtenaw district either...

[Idaho Conservative]

I don't care for the Ann Arbor-Livingston thing either, but my hand was kind of forced by drawing two majority (not plurality) Black districts, which will probably be done by the commission since it's still possible. That means the Dingell district has to take more of Wayne, and that's too much to still include Ann Arbor. I'd be happy to hear your suggestions, but I didn't want to f[inks] up the balance I got in the other part of the state by drawing Ann Arbor into 6th or whatever.

 I'd be happy to see a recommendation which has two majority Black districts and does nicer things with Ann Arbor though

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole

Grand Rapids is whole..

the metro

[lfromnj]

Opinion of this Oakland Macomb split?
Its not really partisan(both districts are Clinton +7 and Clinton +5. Making it more compact would just switch those numbers but I wanted a white collar vs blue collar split.

Its very ugly and would scream gerrymandered to idiots but I think it better represents the COI's of the north Detroit suburbs.)Grosse point is white collar but thats way too far away to "gerrymander" inside.

[lfromnj]

I don't think the weird lines warrant the (crude) class separation.

I don't think its really worth it either just because of how ugly it is but was just gathering some ideas.

[lfromnj]

I don't think the weird lines warrant the (crude) class separation.

I don't think its really worth it either just because of how ugly it is but was just gathering some ideas.

Also, if you want a "WWC district", you'd do better taking in more of Macomb then going after uber-yuppie Royal Oak of all places.

I avoided royal oak. the cities to the south of it are more working class. (also I consider Pontiac working class of course)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Uh, the idea of crude class-based redistricting sounds ugly.

[lfromnj]

Uh, the idea of crude class-based redistricting sounds ugly.

 I mean different classes clearly have different interests? And its still within the same metro area etc. Again my version was too ugly but Im trying to cook up a reasonable version.

[lfromnj]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

[Idaho Conservative]

My take on a fair map.  For communities of interest, I mostly used metro areas and municipal/county borders.  2 black VRA seats+a black opportunity seat in the suburbs, 25% black.  But Levin would likely represent it.  In terms of partisan outcome, my map is decent if you take into account 2018 and 2012, but if 2016 trends continue, it would probably end up with 8 Republicans.  But who knows, Whitmer won the Flint/Thumb district so Kildee could survive there awhile. 

[lfromnj]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

[Idaho Conservative]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/00ba0430-eccf-4ee4-9cb5-82090bd38e07
no it's kept together
and It's actually really hard to do it east/west, because of Muskegon and the road connection to the UP. 

[lfromnj]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/00ba0430-eccf-4ee4-9cb5-82090bd38e07
no it's kept together
and It's actually really hard to do it east/west, because of Muskegon and the road connection to the UP.  

Turns out we can make copies of maps now on DRA
Anyway made 2 edits to your map. Kept Kalamazoo whole and tried the East West thing. Not sure I like the split of Saginaw Bay and Flint into 3 separate districts. Its not a mega partisan gerrymander as you merely made Lansing Lean to Likely D from tossup and then made Flint Likely R from tossup. Whitmer lost the pink district 82 votes btw !. You did go for a light GOP gerrymander in Macomb with the black opportunity district but its not the worst idea as its still fairly compact.

[Idaho Conservative]

Did you split the tri county lansing metro Idaho?

Also for your northern 2 districts. Divide them east west. Don't put a cross lake district besides for the UP district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/00ba0430-eccf-4ee4-9cb5-82090bd38e07
no it's kept together
and It's actually really hard to do it east/west, because of Muskegon and the road connection to the UP.  

Turns out we can make copies of maps now on DRA
Anyway made 2 edits to your map. Kept Kalamazoo whole and tried the East West thing. Not sure I like the split of Saginaw Bay and Flint into 3 separate districts. Its not a mega partisan gerrymander as you merely made Lansing Lean to Likely D from tossup and then made Flint Likely R from tossup. Whitmer lost the pink district 82 votes btw !. You did go for a light GOP gerrymander in Macomb with the black opportunity district but its not the worst idea as its still fairly compact.

I didn't think of connecting the UP to the east coast.  Honestly, I prefer my cut aesthetically but to each his own.  Keeping Kalamazoo whole is probably a good idea tho.  As for Macomb, yeah my cut slightly benefits the GOP, but Dems are already getting a safer suburban sea than they currently have while keeping Dingell safe, so if I cut northern Macomb rather than southern, basically every cut in the metro area would favor dems.  As for the tri cities, keeping them whole would complicate the rest of the map.  Either the thumb would need to go into Detroit suburbs or up way north, and also messes up sw MI. 

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

This is much nicer (of course except the Detroit sink, which one can recognize isn't quite right without even knowing what the VRA is)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

[Former President tack50]

I decided to give this a try with a fair map and uh, here is what I got. Not really a fair map in terms of partisan outcome but the COIs seem reasonable?



https://davesredistricting.org/join/9ed5b836-c557-4f51-ad5e-6c9199cf8098

MI-01: Trump+22, R+10 (Safe R)
MI-02: Trump+22, R+10 (Safe R)
MI-03: Trump+9, R+7 (Likely R)
MI-04: Trump+19, R+7 (Safe R)
MI-05: Trump+11, R+3 (Likely R)
MI-06: Trump+6, R+2 (Lean R)
MI-07: Clinton+8, D+4 (Likely D)
MI-08: Trump+4, R+2 (Tossup)
MI-09: Clinton+3, EVEN (Tossup)
MI-10: Trump+19, R+7 (Safe R)
MI-11: Trump+0, D+2 (Tossup)
MI-12: Clinton+58, D+29, 51% Black CVAP (Safe D)
MI-13: Clinton+52, D+28, 51% Black CVAP (Safe D)

4 Safe R
2 Likely R
1 Lean R
3 Tossup
1 Likely D
2 Safe D

For the sake of completeness, I will say that in the Governor race Whitmer gets all the Clinton districts plus the 5th (Flint), the 6th (Kalamazoo), the 8th (Lansing) and the 11th (Southern Detroit); getting in fact a majority of districts in the process (8/13)

However, Stabenow does not get a majority of districts as she only flipped the 11th and the 8th (for a total of 6/13)

[Sol]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

[Idaho Conservative]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

[lfromnj]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

Agree I prefer to avoid that cross(I might put southfield in a vra seat and grosse point in the macomb seat.)

[Sol]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

I just question to what extent one of two VRA seats which just stays in Wayne actually works as a performing seat. I'd be a little concerned about a legal challenge if the Black % in both seats isn't as high as reasonably possible; even under the current district Tlaib managed to win a primary in 2018 where she was not the Black candidate of choice IIRC.

As far as the Pointes go, I don't see anything wrong with putting them in a Black-majority seat.. They aren't exactly a great fit for working-class and increasingly diversifying Macomb either, and you avoid a county split.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Obviously violates the VRA but this is my non partisan map of the detroit metro that fits almost perfectly
Creates a nice downriver WWC+arab seat thats Clinton +4 but trending R. Lean D
Ann Arbor College town and upscale Wayne county suburbs. Clinton +25(Safe D)
Titanium D Clinton +90 Detroit seat.
Livingston + exurban oakland and Macomb(Trump +24) Safe R
Inner Oakland(Clinton +25) Safe D
Most of Macomb +7 Trump = lean to Likely R and trending right.

If you combine the Downriver and Detroit districts, what's the black population? Just wondering if there's a viable east-west split there that keeps them both as VRA districts.

The Black population in that yellow seat is essentially negligible outside of River Rouge, Ecorse, Inkster, and Romulus, and none of those are a huge percentage of the population. So yeah, I'd imagine it may even be majority white? The Oakland county district might actually be Blacker since it has Southfield and Pontiac.

sending both VRA seats into Oakland would be interesting.  But they can both be kept within Wayne, I think that's the best configuration

I just question to what extent one of two VRA seats which just stays in Wayne actually works as a performing seat. I'd be a little concerned about a legal challenge if the Black % in both seats isn't as high as reasonably possible; even under the current district Tlaib managed to win a primary in 2018 where she was not the Black candidate of choice IIRC.

As far as the Pointes go, I don't see anything wrong with putting them in a Black-majority seat.. They aren't exactly a great fit for working-class and increasingly diversifying Macomb either, and you avoid a county split.

I mean, I don't think that the VRA has anything to say about very crowded Democratic primaries where the winner barely gets 30% of the vote.

[cvparty]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

[lfromnj]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

Could you post the DRA map?
I want to make a change or 2.

[cvparty]

ok i tried my best at a fair COI-based map with partisan data off. think i'm pretty satisfied with it since it's compact, only splits 10 counties, and keeps the grand rapids, lansing and tri-cities areas together. the sacrifices made are the detroit exurbs (shared among the two suburban detroit districts and lansing) and wayne's WWC neighborhoods (necessary for VRA districts)

it ends up being 7-6 obama, 7-6 trump, 8-5 whitmer. tipping point seat is CD8 which is consistently 2-5 points to the right of the state, so there's a GOP tilt


MI-01: Obama +1 | Romney +9 | Trump +23
MI-02: McCain +6 | Romney +14 | Trump +9
MI-03: Obama +2 | Romney +6 | Trump +24
MI-04: Obama +6 | Romney +5 | Trump +21
MI-05: Obama +24 | Obama +18 | Clinton +1
MI-06: Obama +7 | Romney +2 | Trump +8
MI-07: Obama +20 | Obama +14 | Clinton +16
MI-08: Obama +10 | Obama +3 | Trump +5
MI-09: Obama +16 | Obama +15 | Clinton +6
MI-10: McCain +1 | Romney +10 | Trump +31
MI-11: Obama +8 | Obama +1 | Clinton +2
MI-12: Obama +61 | Obama +62 | Clinton +54
MI-13: Obama +64 | Obama +63 | Clinton +48

Could you post the DRA map?
I want to make a change or 2.

my posted map is with extrapolated 2020 populations but here's with 2018 numbers