2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Idaho Conservative]

I think this map is perfection:





https://davesredistricting.org/join/86c3575b-47c5-455b-bdef-ba4557967108

Two AA districts now (I doubt the population numbers by 2020 will be correct though,  probably both very under-populated).

MI-3 (Red) really should go west from Grand Rapids, not east,  the metro itself extends west into Ottawa, makes the most sense.

Love the Flint and Lansing seats, both competitive, both respect COI's in the area.

Tons of competitive seats on the map overall,  only five seats were won by either party by more than 10% (including the two AA ones),  with 3 within 5%.

This is my favorite so far.

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

[Nyvin]

I think double-splitting Wayne and Oakland between MI-9 and MI-12 as on this map is illegal under the Michigan rules. You can't have two districts that both split the same two counties.

Should be solvable by putting Pontiac in MI-09 and pushing MI-12 down through Mexicantown, allowing MI-13 to take up the rest of Wayne from MI-09.

I wasn't aware of the Michigan requirements.    How about this then?   If all you need is two Black plurality seats, it almost makes the Detroit Metro a Dem gerrymander (only that all the seats are Lean D now, no tossups).





https://davesredistricting.org/join/86c3575b-47c5-455b-bdef-ba4557967108

2016:
1: 33.8%D - 60.8%R
2: 37.1D - 56.7R
3: 42.6D - 50.6R
4: 45.0D - 48.9R
5: 48.6D - 46.3R
6: 43.1D - 50.8R
7: 36.1D - 58.5R
8: 51.0D - 44.1R
9: 51.5D - 43.2R
10: 33.0D - 62.1R
11: 68.0D - 28.6R (47.4% AA)
12: 72.3D - 24.5R (48.6% AA)
13: 55.3D - 39.9 R

3 Safe D
2 Likely/Lean D
2 Tossup
2 Likely/Lean R
4 Safe R

Overall 6 Clinton and 7 Trump

By 2022 I'd expect MI-3 (Red) to trend to either tossup or maybe Lean D.  MI-5 (Flint/Tri-Cities) will trend to Lean R maybe.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1e1bee7-6029-41ce-b898-8ba4e67cd46f
1 - R+10
2 - R+3
3 - R+15
4 - D+3
5 - R+2
6 - R+11
7 - D+2
8 - R+13
9 - R+2
10 - D+1
11 - D+10
12 - D+31 (49% Black)
13 - D+24 (49% Black)

If the Commission decides to prioritise partisan fairness and competitiveness. COIs still respected. 6 seats have a D PVI, 7 seats have a R PVI. 6 seats voted Clinton, 7 seats voted Trump. 4 seats are safe R, 3 seats are Safe D, and the remaining 6 are competitive, with 3 leaning left and 3 leaning right. Only 3 townships + Detroit are split.

Why split Kent County?  Also the 3 way cut of Genesee is unnecessary and unfair to the Flint community.

[Nyvin]

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

If you split Ottawa and Kent, then that's actually breaking up a COI.   The counties east of Kent have very little in common with Grand Rapids, and the metro extends westward into Georgetown/Hudsonville.  

The main focus of the Detroit metro was working around the two AA seats,  nothing else was done deliberately.  

And please - Kalamazoo is a COI with Monroe county?  Or Lapeer with Livingston?  Grand Rapids is better served with Mecosta county? You have county chains/groups in that map that make no sense.

You obviously just packed the Dems into a few Detroit districts and then spread the remaining metros out with Rural areas.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1e1bee7-6029-41ce-b898-8ba4e67cd46f
1 - R+10
2 - R+3
3 - R+15
4 - D+3
5 - R+2
6 - R+11
7 - D+2
8 - R+13
9 - R+2
10 - D+1
11 - D+10
12 - D+31 (49% Black)
13 - D+24 (49% Black)

If the Commission decides to prioritise partisan fairness and competitiveness. COIs still respected. 6 seats have a D PVI, 7 seats have a R PVI. 6 seats voted Clinton, 7 seats voted Trump. 4 seats are safe R, 3 seats are Safe D, and the remaining 6 are competitive, with 3 leaning left and 3 leaning right. Only 3 townships + Detroit are split.

Why split Kent County?  Also the 3 way cut of Genesee is unnecessary and unfair to the Flint community.

Why not read the description. This map is merely an example of what a commission could do if they prioritised competitive districts.

[cvparty]

I think this map is perfection:





https://davesredistricting.org/join/86c3575b-47c5-455b-bdef-ba4557967108

Two AA districts now (I doubt the population numbers by 2020 will be correct though,  probably both very under-populated).

MI-3 (Red) really should go west from Grand Rapids, not east,  the metro itself extends west into Ottawa, makes the most sense.

Love the Flint and Lansing seats, both competitive, both respect COI's in the area.

Tons of competitive seats on the map overall,  only five seats were won by either party by more than 10% (including the two AA ones),  with 3 within 5%.

This is my favorite so far.

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

gotta love that 20-mile wide fajita strip COI that stretches like 200 miles

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1e1bee7-6029-41ce-b898-8ba4e67cd46f
1 - R+10
2 - R+3
3 - R+15
4 - D+3
5 - R+2
6 - R+11
7 - D+2
8 - R+13
9 - R+2
10 - D+1
11 - D+10
12 - D+31 (49% Black)
13 - D+24 (49% Black)

If the Commission decides to prioritise partisan fairness and competitiveness. COIs still respected. 6 seats have a D PVI, 7 seats have a R PVI. 6 seats voted Clinton, 7 seats voted Trump. 4 seats are safe R, 3 seats are Safe D, and the remaining 6 are competitive, with 3 leaning left and 3 leaning right. Only 3 townships + Detroit are split.

Why split Kent County?  Also the 3 way cut of Genesee is unnecessary and unfair to the Flint community.

Why not read the description. This map is merely an example of what a commission could do if they prioritised competitive districts.

Competitive districts can be achieved without dicing up communities.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1e1bee7-6029-41ce-b898-8ba4e67cd46f
1 - R+10
2 - R+3
3 - R+15
4 - D+3
5 - R+2
6 - R+11
7 - D+2
8 - R+13
9 - R+2
10 - D+1
11 - D+10
12 - D+31 (49% Black)
13 - D+24 (49% Black)

If the Commission decides to prioritise partisan fairness and competitiveness. COIs still respected. 6 seats have a D PVI, 7 seats have a R PVI. 6 seats voted Clinton, 7 seats voted Trump. 4 seats are safe R, 3 seats are Safe D, and the remaining 6 are competitive, with 3 leaning left and 3 leaning right. Only 3 townships + Detroit are split.

Why split Kent County?  Also the 3 way cut of Genesee is unnecessary and unfair to the Flint community.

Why not read the description. This map is merely an example of what a commission could do if they prioritised competitive districts.

Competitive districts can be achieved without dicing up communities.

The competitive map respects COIs just as much as your map does.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1e1bee7-6029-41ce-b898-8ba4e67cd46f
1 - R+10
2 - R+3
3 - R+15
4 - D+3
5 - R+2
6 - R+11
7 - D+2
8 - R+13
9 - R+2
10 - D+1
11 - D+10
12 - D+31 (49% Black)
13 - D+24 (49% Black)

If the Commission decides to prioritise partisan fairness and competitiveness. COIs still respected. 6 seats have a D PVI, 7 seats have a R PVI. 6 seats voted Clinton, 7 seats voted Trump. 4 seats are safe R, 3 seats are Safe D, and the remaining 6 are competitive, with 3 leaning left and 3 leaning right. Only 3 townships + Detroit are split.

Why split Kent County?  Also the 3 way cut of Genesee is unnecessary and unfair to the Flint community.

Why not read the description. This map is merely an example of what a commission could do if they prioritised competitive districts.

Competitive districts can be achieved without dicing up communities.

The competitive map respects COIs just as much as your map does.

my map respects COIs far better.

[Idaho Conservative]

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

If you split Ottawa and Kent, then that's actually breaking up a COI.   The counties east of Kent have very little in common with Grand Rapids, and the metro extends westward into Georgetown/Hudsonville.  

The main focus of the Detroit metro was working around the two AA seats,  nothing else was done deliberately.  

And please - Kalamazoo is a COI with Monroe county?  Or Lapeer with Livingston?  Grand Rapids is better served with Mecosta county? You have county chains/groups in that map that make no sense.

You obviously just packed the Dems into a few Detroit districts and then spread the remaining metros out with Rural areas.

LOL
>"Ottowa and Kent counties being in different districts breaks a COI"
>proceeds to separate Grand Rapids from half its suburbs by unnecessarily breaking Kent in 2.

Also I love how compact districts in Detroit that don't cut 20 miles into the suburbs count as packing.  You literally shred Northern Oakland County for purely political purposes.

[Idaho Conservative]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and and 7-6 trump

violates the VRA, just reach the second black district into southern Oakland County and you'll get the numbers you need.  A tendril into Pontiac isn't even needed.

here I edited my map for more compactness and evening out the black populations in vra districts.  Still 7 Trump 6 Clinton.  4 safe R (Huron Shore, UP, west coast, Detroit exurbs),  2 likely R(South MI, Macomb), 1 Lean R(Grand Rapids),  2 lean D(Flint, Lansing), 1 likely D(Oakland),  3 safe D(2 Detroit, Ann Arbor).
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and and 7-6 trump

violates the VRA

how so? michigan goes down to 13 CDs and detroit has shrunk significantly relative to the state

[EastAnglianLefty]

But there are still sufficient black electors for it to be possible for them to elect two representatives of their choice and they're geographically concentrated enough to pass the Gingles test. Instead you've packed them into a district that must be about 75% AA. That's as obvious a violation of the VRA as you'll ever see.

[cvparty]

But there are still sufficient black electors for it to be possible for them to elect two representatives of their choice and they're geographically concentrated enough to pass the Gingles test. Instead you've packed them into a district that must be about 75% AA. That's as obvious a violation of the VRA as you'll ever see.

well i'm sorry i was just following city lines and compactness

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and and 7-6 trump

violates the VRA, just reach the second black district into southern Oakland County and you'll get the numbers you need.  A tendril into Pontiac isn't even needed.

here I edited my map for more compactness and evening out the black populations in vra districts.  Still 7 Trump 6 Clinton.  4 safe R (Huron Shore, UP, west coast, Detroit exurbs),  2 likely R(South MI, Macomb), 1 Lean R(Grand Rapids),  2 lean D(Flint, Lansing), 1 likely D(Oakland),  3 safe D(2 Detroit, Ann Arbor).
https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54

your map still consists of many strangely configured districts, ex. mackinack bridge all the way to metro detroit, monroe to kalamazoo, stretching grand rapids out into rural counties instead of keeping it an urban district

[Nyvin]

Perfect?!?  You unnecessarily pull Grand Rapids out of Kent County severing the suburbs and how you drew Detroit was a blatant Dem gerrymander by cracking republican leaning areas.  You made a 7-6 map and so did I: https://davesredistricting.org/join/1d117936-4d28-4a7a-9dfe-529e010bef54
mine actually respects COIs.

If you split Ottawa and Kent, then that's actually breaking up a COI.   The counties east of Kent have very little in common with Grand Rapids, and the metro extends westward into Georgetown/Hudsonville.  

The main focus of the Detroit metro was working around the two AA seats,  nothing else was done deliberately.  

And please - Kalamazoo is a COI with Monroe county?  Or Lapeer with Livingston?  Grand Rapids is better served with Mecosta county? You have county chains/groups in that map that make no sense.

You obviously just packed the Dems into a few Detroit districts and then spread the remaining metros out with Rural areas.

LOL
>"Ottowa and Kent counties being in different districts breaks a COI"
>proceeds to separate Grand Rapids from half its suburbs by unnecessarily breaking Kent in 2.

Also I love how compact districts in Detroit that don't cut 20 miles into the suburbs count as packing.  You literally shred Northern Oakland County for purely political purposes.

The vast majority of the Grand Rapids suburbs are in the MI-3 district,  the city portion of Kent county actually cuts off very quickly after Ada, which is in the district.   Nowhere close to "half" the suburbs are broke off, the portion of Kent that isn't in MI-3 only has about 148k people, compared to the 278k in Ottawa.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Kent and Ottawa have too many people for a single congressional district. If you believe they ought to go in the same congressional district (and it's an eminently fair argument if you look at a map) then you have to remove some of the outlying portions of one or both of them. It's not evidence of a gerrymander, just evidence of Kent being a large county.

[Nyvin]

I guess you could do it this way (All of Kent, some of Ottawa),  I just hate the wrap around district you end up with for MI-2



https://davesredistricting.org/join/86c3575b-47c5-455b-bdef-ba4557967108

[Tintrlvr]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

This map is decent overall, but you have two Wayne-Macomb districts and two Oakland-Livingston districts. Under the Michigan rules, you generally can't double-split counties like that. (I could *maybe* see a commission making an exception for the black seats if it seemed like the double-split was designed to preserve them.)

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's no maybe about it - the current map does so, so there's no realistic question but that it's legitimate to secure two AA-majority seats.

[Idaho Conservative]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

Non Detroit metro is fine but in Detroit the districts are a bit odd, particularly sending the black districts deep into suburban territory.  One black district can remain entirely in Wayne, the other can go into southern Oakland to get enough blacks to get to 49-50%.  Generally speaking it's good to split counties once if at all.  There should be a Macomb district, it would end up being aswing district since Macomb went Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, then Dem in 2018 for governor and senate.

[cvparty]

why not this, compact, 10 county splits, COI preservation and 7-6 trump


MI-01: Trump +23
MI-02: Trump+9
MI-03: Trump +24
MI-04: Trump +21
MI-05: Clinton +1
MI-06: Trump +8
MI-07: Clinton +16
MI-08: Trump +4
MI-09: Clinton +42
MI-10: Trump +31
MI-11: Clinton +3
MI-12: Clinton +9
MI-13: Clinton +54

Non Detroit metro is fine but in Detroit the districts are a bit odd, particularly sending the black districts deep into suburban territory.  One black district can remain entirely in Wayne, the other can go into southern Oakland to get enough blacks to get to 49-50%.  Generally speaking it's good to split counties once if at all.  There should be a Macomb district, it would end up being aswing district since Macomb went Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, then Dem in 2018 for governor and senate.

if i do what you say it changes the whole configurement of the map. i don’t want to do a 9-4 gerrymander lmao. from a COI standpoint the suburbs that get paired with detroit are blue collar as well which at least makes sense, all while having two wealthy COI suburban districts (7 and 11) and i already have an entirely wayne-based blue collar one (12).

[Idaho Conservative]

Well since everyone here seems intent on drawing a partisan map that would be unlikely to get support from the Republican commissioners it needs for passage, I'll get in on the game too.  Here's a 9R-4D map where Trump wins all the red districts by 10 or more.  Very clean and decent on COIs.  Interesting how it's less brazenly partisan than the current map yet better for Republicans at the same time.  I have to thank you guys for the idea of shoving the VRA districts deep into the suburbs, that's how I could make this map, just shoving them into different suburbs ofc.  This shows how the vra districts are a double edged sword that can be used as a weapon by either party with respect to shoving them into the northern suburbs.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5184cd9e-e518-41f5-9a1f-8eab1fa5412a

[Nyvin]

Well since everyone here seems intent on drawing a partisan map that would be unlikely to get support from the Republican commissioners it needs for passage, I'll get in on the game too.  Here's a 9R-4D map where Trump wins all the red districts by 10 or more.  Very clean and decent on COIs.  Interesting how it's less brazenly partisan than the current map yet better for Republicans at the same time.  I have to thank you guys for the idea of shoving the VRA districts deep into the suburbs, that's how I could make this map, just shoving them into different suburbs ofc.  This shows how the vra districts are a double edged sword that can be used as a weapon by either party with respect to shoving them into the northern suburbs.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/5184cd9e-e518-41f5-9a1f-8eab1fa5412a

Yeah, because Battle Creek is clearly a COI with southern Wayne, and putting Lansing and Ann Arbor together wouldn't make either upset.

And the Thumb to Saginaw to Eaton district...yeah.