2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[EastAnglianLefty]

Midland has been in districts with at least part of northern Michigan since at least the 1970s redistricting, so presumably there wouldn't be that much resistance locally.

[Idaho Conservative]

Since we are on the topic of Arab communities, I decided to go download the latest ACS data and see for myself what the present lay of the ground is. Here is a map of all people claiming Mid-Eastern descent in the metro - not just Arabs but Turks, Iranians, and others that would prefer being in the arab seat to anywhere else. Compared to the more limited view shown above, the Larger Arab pockets in Dearborn, Dearborn heights and Hamtramk have expanded. This is mainly because of the turnover since then, Arabs moving in and the older residents moving out. The map though also captures the Arab Christians that I mentioned earlier to the west of Dearborn - Assyrians, Lebanese, and others who may be missed by a more limited scope. If we are solely confining the Arab or Arab+AA seat to Wayne, and preventing it from tendrilling into the suburbs, then those western towns are the next best additions. There is this idea of doing parallel cuts into Oakland, so that the Arab seat can grab more Arabs and the AA seat grabs Pontiac, however such things appear to be banned by the commission.

West Macomb is a surprise, must be Christians.  Arabs are very divided by religion.  Arab Christians and Muslims wouldn't make a COI, about as much if a COI as jews and muslms lol.

[jimrtex]

Since we are on the topic of Arab communities, I decided to go download the latest ACS data and see for myself what the present lay of the ground is. Here is a map of all people claiming Mid-Eastern descent in the metro - not just Arabs but Turks, Iranians, and others that would prefer being in the arab seat to anywhere else. Compared to the more limited view shown above, the Larger Arab pockets in Dearborn, Dearborn heights and Hamtramk have expanded. This is mainly because of the turnover since then, Arabs moving in and the older residents moving out. The map though also captures the Arab Christians that I mentioned earlier to the west of Dearborn - Assyrians, Lebanese, and others who may be missed by a more limited scope. If we are solely confining the Arab or Arab+AA seat to Wayne, and preventing it from tendrilling into the suburbs, then those western towns are the next best additions. There is this idea of doing parallel cuts into Oakland, so that the Arab seat can grab more Arabs and the AA seat grabs Pontiac, however such things appear to be banned by the commission.

West Macomb is a surprise, must be Christians.  Arabs are very divided by religion.  Arab Christians and Muslims wouldn't make a COI, about as much if a COI as jews and muslms lol.

Sterling Heights apparently has a large Chaldean population (Iraqi Christians).

[jimrtex]

Map: The Geography of Arab Detroit

Map in above article shows concentrations of population.

Hamtramck is interesting since at one time it was about 90% Polish, while Highland Park was almost 100% Black.

[voice_of_resistance]

Here is my take on a 13-district Michigan:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3b2fa2-7fcd-4b0d-adeb-6347e4ef6b63

Tries to preserve COIs, but the breakdown is as follows:

MI-01: Northern Michigan, Trump +21, Safe R
MI-02: Muskegon and the remnant of current MI-04, Trump +18, Safe R
MI-03: Grand Rapids, Ionia/Barry/Montcalm, Trump +9, Lean R
MI-04: Lansing, Saginaw, and rural areas in between, Clinton +5, Lean D
MI-05: Flint, Livingston, Western Oakland, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-06: Kalamazoo, SW Michigan, inland Ottawa County, Trump +14, Likely R
MI-07: Monroe County, Indiana border, Trump +23, Safe R
MI-08: Pontiac, Troy, West Bloomfield, southern Oakland, Clinton +12, Likely D
MI-09: southern Macomb County, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-10: northern Macomb, NE Oakland, the Thumb, and Bay City, Trump +29, Safe R
MI-11: Washtenaw and western Wayne, Clinton +21, Safe D
MI-12: Wyandotte, Romulus, central Wayne County, 45.6% black, Clinton +46, Safe D
MI-13: downtown Detroit, 56.3% black, Clinton +67, Safe D

Overall, I think this map has an ample amount of competitive districts. Districts 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 10 should likely go to the GOP. Districts 4, 5, and 9 are competitive but should be winnable for the right Dem (Levin, Kildee, the Macomb executive, etc). Districts 8, 11, 12, and 13 are all solid D holds. Overall, this leads to a 4D-3C-6R spread, which would roughly average out to 6D-7R or 7D-6R. Trends as well will make the 4/5/9 combo, as well as MI-3 and to a lesser extent MI-6 competitive.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is my take on a 13-district Michigan:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/cf3b2fa2-7fcd-4b0d-adeb-6347e4ef6b63

Tries to preserve COIs, but the breakdown is as follows:

MI-01: Northern Michigan, Trump +21, Safe R
MI-02: Muskegon and the remnant of current MI-04, Trump +18, Safe R
MI-03: Grand Rapids, Ionia/Barry/Montcalm, Trump +9, Lean R
MI-04: Lansing, Saginaw, and rural areas in between, Clinton +5, Lean D
MI-05: Flint, Livingston, Western Oakland, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-06: Kalamazoo, SW Michigan, inland Ottawa County, Trump +14, Likely R
MI-07: Monroe County, Indiana border, Trump +23, Safe R
MI-08: Pontiac, Troy, West Bloomfield, southern Oakland, Clinton +12, Likely D
MI-09: southern Macomb County, Trump +9, Tossup
MI-10: northern Macomb, NE Oakland, the Thumb, and Bay City, Trump +29, Safe R
MI-11: Washtenaw and western Wayne, Clinton +21, Safe D
MI-12: Wyandotte, Romulus, central Wayne County, 45.6% black, Clinton +46, Safe D
MI-13: downtown Detroit, 56.3% black, Clinton +67, Safe D

Overall, I think this map has an ample amount of competitive districts. Districts 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 10 should likely go to the GOP. Districts 4, 5, and 9 are competitive but should be winnable for the right Dem (Levin, Kildee, the Macomb executive, etc). Districts 8, 11, 12, and 13 are all solid D holds. Overall, this leads to a 4D-3C-6R spread, which would roughly average out to 6D-7R or 7D-6R. Trends as well will make the 4/5/9 combo, as well as MI-3 and to a lesser extent MI-6 competitive.

Finally, a Dem who draws fair districts.

[jimrtex]

These are my population projections for 2020. Two annual change estimates were made. One was based on the 2010 Census (adj base) to the 2018 estimate (8.25 years), and the other from the 2016 estimate to the 2018 estimate (2 years). Linear growth was assumed in both cases. The two estimates were averaged, and projected forward from the 2018 estimate for 1.75 additional years. Given the slow growth of the state, they can be considered to be largely the 2018 estimate with an additional tweak.





Michigan has 14 Regional Council of Governments, covering the entire state except for Barry. Some have an obvious focus (Detroit, Lansing, Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo), others tend to be simple groupings of nearby counties.

Region II (Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Jackson) apparently never came up with a name for their region. GLS is based on the initial letter of Genesee, Lapeer, and Shiawassee, with the latter two in the group because they are adjacent to Genesee and don't fit with any other group. Barry may have been in the West Michigan RCOG, but finds itself between Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Kalamazoo.

The numbering of the West Michigan Shore RCOG suggests that it broke off from the West Michigan RCOG, perhaps concerned about Grand Rapids dominance.

The RCOG's have a scale somewhat similar to congressional districts, and reflect a COI which is recognized at least at the local government level (both the federal and state governments provide incentives for regional planning.

It happens that they can be grouped in super regions with populations equivalent to a congressional districts.

North: 3 RCOG in the UP (WUP, CUP, EUP), and two in LP (NW and NE) 0.959 districts.

West: West Michigan and West Michigan shore: 2.030 districts. One Grand Rapids based, and the other the remainder.

Southwest: SW, SC, and Barry: 1.101 (Barry placed in this group because it had the lowest excess over a whole district).

Central: Tri-County (Lansing) and Region II (Jackson, etc.): 1.022.

East: East (Tri-Cities, Thumb, etc.) 0.973.

Southeast: SE (Detroit) and GLS (Flint) 6.913 7 districts.

The three eastern areas: North 0.959, East 0.973, and Southeast 6.913, are underpopulated, while the three western areas: West 2.030, Southwest 1.101, and Central are overpopulated. Counties will need to be shifted. It may be possible to get the districts within acceptable limits by shifting counties.

The Michigan Constitution requires that congressional "[d]istricts shall be of equal population as mandated by the United States constitution." The mandate is as interpreted by the SCOTUS, most recently in Tennant v Jefferson County.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Very very interesting. To start off with Flint+Tri-Cities whole counties is 1.01100 quotas, or about only 7k excess population.

[jimrtex]

This shows grouping of RCOG's into areas equivalent to a whole number of CD's.

[jimrtex]

To get the regions closer to an whole number of representatives we need to shift some counties. The greater southeastern region (Detroit, Flint, and Ann Arbor) is short about 0.087 of the population needed for 7 districts.

There are three plausible options.
(1) Move Lenawee into the region.
(2) Move Sanilac and Huron into the region.
(3) Move Sanilac, Huron, and Tuscola into the region, and Shiawassee out.

This map explores the first option



Lenawee in the past has been included in the Ann Arbor metropolitan area, so it has some community of interest.

Elsewhere Barry is added to the Lansing-based central district. Barry is a free-agent not belonging to any RCOG. The district is not ideally compact, but forms an area between Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Kalamazoo.

The southwest area consisting of two RCOG's is unchanged and quite compact. It places Kalamazoo and Battle Creek in the same district.

Mason and Alcona were shifted for population balance. Otherwise the northern district consists of five RCOG's and the eastern district of one RCOG.

The western two RCOG's were divided into two CD's. Kent was placed with Allegan to avoid dividing counties. Any Grand Rapids district is going to be an imperfect representation of the city and its surroundings. You could go east from Kent adding in more rural areas, but Grand Rapids is distinctly in the western part of the county and somewhat southerly. Or you could go into suburban areas in Ottawa, but that divides the county and requires a slender connection.

In the greater southeastern area, St.Clair is added to a Flint-based district. St.Clair, particularly Port Huron is distinct from the Detroit core, and is needed for population balance.

On the west, Livingston, Lenawee, and Monroe are added to Washtenaw. Livingston and Lenawee have in the past been part of the Ann Arbor metropolitan area.

This leaves the inner three MOW counties with about 5 districts. Counties were always going to be split in this area.

Overall population equality is good (-1.6%, -1.4%, -2.2%, +1.5% +2.1%, (+4.0%/7 = 0.6%). If further refinement is needed by dividing counties, only round 75,000 persons need to be victimized.

[jimrtex]

This alternative shifts Sanilac and Huron to the southeastern region rather than Lenawee



The central district (Lansing-Jackson) no longer needs adjustment so Barry is added to the western Michigan area.

Taking of Sanilac and Huron forces the eastern district (Tri-Cities) westward. This results in Barry and Ionia being added to the Grand Rapids (Kent) district, since they would be cut off otherwise.

In the southeast, the Ann Arbor district will need to pull in some population from far western or southern Wayne.

[Oryxslayer]

Number of interested applicants has risen to 6K.

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1233773797377007616?s=19

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So after everyone discussed COIs a while back, I decided to explore a map that was mainly based on COIs. It ended up unusual. The 'guiding' districts in this case were CD5 which has all of the tri-cities and Flint, CD4 which crosses the Saginaw river to link the Thump and the Upstate, CD1 which actually gets all of the non-urbanized west coast, and CD7 which puts all the notable central MI college towns together. CD9 gets the Grosse Pointe's because their local lines cross the border of Wayne and Macomb. One of the AA seats has all the arabs, as I tend to prefer when possible. The main victim of the mid-state getting their COI's is CD8, but it isn't affected too much as far as pop distribution is concerned.

Trump won 7 seats when he won by less than 1%. When whitmer won by 10% she no only got the 6 Clinton seats and the swingy Macomb seat, she also got the Grand Rapids seat by <3K votes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7f30e42-14ef-444d-a14b-2e7b25639720

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like you put Moolenar, Kildee, and Slotkin in the same district(5)

[Skill and Chance]

A 6th Circuit panel just unanimously upheld Michigan's redistricting commission against a federal constitutional challenge.  The panel was 1 Trump appointee and 2 Clinton appointees.  The Trump appointee wrote a concurrence that seemed to grant even stronger deference to Michigan and cited Roberts' comments from Rucho that seemed to bless state commissions.

I think the commission is safely in place going forward.

[lfromnj]

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/ICRC_Whos_applying_682238_7.pdf

just interesting stats
So the commission applicants are a decent bit whiter, they are also 60% male, and also much older than the average Michigan voter, but however 35% are Democrat to 15% Republican, doesn't really matter , just really hillarious its the most Republican Demographic but most partisan applicants are Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/ICRC_Whos_applying_682238_7.pdf

just interesting stats
So the commission applicants are a decent bit whiter, they are also 60% male, and also much older than the average Michigan voter, but however 35% are Democrat to 15% Republican, doesn't really matter .

So it's going to be a commission of former Woodstock attendees?

[jimrtex]

https://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/ICRC_Whos_applying_682238_7.pdf

just interesting stats
So the commission applicants are a decent bit whiter, they are also 60% male, and also much older than the average Michigan voter, but however 35% are Democrat to 15% Republican, doesn't really matter , just really hilarious its the most Republican Demographic but most partisan applicants are Democrats.

Michigan does not have partisan registration. Primary ballots have all parties on them. The voter selects a party anonymously and votes for candidates of that party.

An applicant can say whatever they want. The restrictions are so tight, on political involvement anyone with any sort of overt political activity might be excluded.

Anyhow when the random pools are selected, they will be weighted.

IIUC, a "Republican" will be weighted by 30/15, a Democrat by 30/35, and an unaffiliated by 40/50.

Weighting will also be done for sex, race, age, and geographical area.

The age weightings are not based on the age categories shown, but are off by 10 years. So the 55+ group will tend to be heavy in the 65+1, the 35-55 group by those in the 45-55 group, and the 35-and-under by those in their late 20s and 30s.

The geographic areas are Wayne; Southeast (which excludes Wayne, but includes Lansing and Jackson; Western; East Central: Flint, Thumb, and Tri-Cities; Northern L.P.; and U.P.
There are more applicants for Oakland alone than Wayne, and partisan hacks from Lansing might be drawn to represent the Detroit suburbs.

The commission has all the makings of a train wreck.

[I’m not Stu]

With a Democratic governor, will the map be less hostile to Democrats?

[Nyvin]

With a Democratic governor, will the map be less hostile to Democrats?

With the commission it's actually the Democratic SoS that matters more, at least that's how it looks now.

[Sol]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

[lfromnj]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

Not really, Ann Arbor works ok with the 3 Western cities in Wayne but anything not part of the 2 VRA seats should be put with Monroe.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole, and Ann Arbor goes with Wayne better than the Exurbs.

Monroe can be included too.   Wayne County basically has 2.5 districts at this point. 
Not really, Ann Arbor works ok with the 3 Western cities in Wayne but anything not part of the 2 VRA seats should be put with Monroe.

[lfromnj]

Did my Michigan map:

Between 3 and 4 fix that unnecesary double cross.(just split 1 county)
Then I'd say put battle creek in the Kalamazoo district and  put all of Jackson with the Lansing district.  Dont really like the flint district but not sure how to fix it within your map.(would require a very large rotation)

[Sol]

I don't care for the Ann Arbor-Livingston thing either, but my hand was kind of forced by drawing two majority (not plurality) Black districts, which will probably be done by the commission since it's still possible. That means the Dingell district has to take more of Wayne, and that's too much to still include Ann Arbor. I'd be happy to hear your suggestions, but I didn't want to f[inks] up the balance I got in the other part of the state by drawing Ann Arbor into 6th or whatever.

 I'd be happy to see a recommendation which has two majority Black districts and does nicer things with Ann Arbor though

Here's a link to a possible map; too lazy rn to screenshot, my apologies

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1f84b5fd-62f4-4f75-8320-484b0288b314

GR should stay whole

Grand Rapids is whole..