2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #200 on: February 19, 2020, 12:53:45 PM »

So after everyone discussed COIs a while back, I decided to explore a map that was mainly based on COIs. It ended up unusual. The 'guiding' districts in this case were CD5 which has all of the tri-cities and Flint, CD4 which crosses the Saginaw river to link the Thump and the Upstate, CD1 which actually gets all of the non-urbanized west coast, and CD7 which puts all the notable central MI college towns together. CD9 gets the Grosse Pointe's because their local lines cross the border of Wayne and Macomb. One of the AA seats has all the arabs, as I tend to prefer when possible. The main victim of the mid-state getting their COI's is CD8, but it isn't affected too much as far as pop distribution is concerned.

Trump won 7 seats when he won by less than 1%. When whitmer won by 10% she no only got the 6 Clinton seats and the swingy Macomb seat, she also got the Grand Rapids seat by <3K votes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7f30e42-14ef-444d-a14b-2e7b25639720





Is it possible to put Shiawassee with Lansing? I think that would look neater and be a bit better from a COI perspective.

The rest of the map is decent, but this is on the 2010 figures. If you pull up the 2016 map, you get 2016 presidential results with updated Census estimates.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #201 on: February 19, 2020, 01:01:33 PM »


Regardless of whether or not DRA has data on the 2016 map, I always draw my lines there. Then I redraw the map in the 2010 data, since the 2010 map has more information on the precinct level and the census tracts often used on the 2016 level are sometimes weird. Michigan just is nice enough to have 2016 data in the 2016 module. Every image/map I have ever posted here is in the 2010 module, transcribed from the 2016 one. So, this is the 2016 map.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #202 on: February 19, 2020, 01:15:33 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2020, 01:54:48 PM by EastAnglianLefty »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #203 on: February 19, 2020, 01:31:42 PM »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Calhoun mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?

I think the Macomb district is still the Democrats' 7th potential seat on this map (despite being stronger for Trump), but both the Grand Rapids seat and the Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Jackson seat have some potential. Long-term, I can't see Macomb doing anything but boomeranging back towards the Democrats, demographically, as the black population is booming in southern Macomb, and fundamentally Macomb is still a suburban county.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #204 on: February 19, 2020, 01:40:53 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2020, 01:47:48 PM by Oryxslayer »

Anyway, here's a quick alternative to Shiawassee in the 8th. Shiawassee in general is rather small when compared to her neighbors, and lacks a clear COI partner since it is kinda the 'empty' space between Flint, the Tri-Cities, Lansing, and The Detroit Exurbs. If you stick Shiawaasee in the Lansing seat on my map, you trade it for bits out of the south, something I wished to avoid. If you however put it with the 5th and the cities seat, then you get a less obtuse map, though you so add a cut. It also opens discussion of whether those southern towns in Gennessee are part of the Detroit exurbs or the Flint region.



Here's what it looks like overall.



EastAnglianLefty does have a good question about the thumb+upland seat, but I tend to think that the CD1 on this map is a viable answer to said question. The seat puts two COI's together: the upstate and the non-urban west Coast, allowing the fourth to work.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #205 on: February 19, 2020, 01:50:54 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2020, 01:55:51 PM by Tintrlvr »

I think that's a significant improvement, though it's hard to tell how closely Bay City is being cut. I was hoping by putting Shiawassee in the Lansing seat you could pull the Lansing seat south from Mount Pleasant, though, which is a long northern appendage now (though I suppose I see the reasoning behind putting a smaller college town with Lansing). Ultimately Shiawassee is fine with either Flint or Lansing, though. I don't love it with Detroit exurbs, though, because Shiawassee has an interstate connection to both Lansing and Flint (and so has some exurbs of each on the edges) but doesn't have any highway connection to Livingston County.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #206 on: February 19, 2020, 01:59:30 PM »

It looks like quite a tight cut on Bay City. Given that there isn't a bridge over the Saginaw north of there and the 4th hence can't be contiguous by road whatever you do, you may as well do a looser cut.

Regarding Mt Pleasant, I still think the solution is to shift Jackson into the sixth (making it more compact), send the Lansing district into Montcalm and Ionia (as they're not that closely linked to GR), stick eastern Ottawa into the 3rd (as that is closely linked to GR) then re-align the boundary between the 2nd and the 6th (which should allow you to keep most of Michiana together.)

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #207 on: February 19, 2020, 02:02:20 PM »

I think that's a significant improvement, though it's hard to tell how closely Bay City is being cut. I was hoping by putting Shiawassee in the Lansing seat you could pull the Lansing seat south from Mount Pleasant, though, which is a long northern appendage now (though I suppose I see the reasoning behind putting a smaller college town with Lansing).

Yes the point of this 7th was the college town COI. The idea was to pair Lansing (a clear college city) with Mt. Pleasant and Albion which are also obvious college towns in mid-michigan. So it's naturally going to be perpendicular, like I said the maps goals made it strange.



Also it pays to keep an eye on the Bay county towns if the county is getting cut. In this map it's all of frankenlurst, Bay City, and Midland, plus a bit for pop equity. On the other map it adds monitor, Auburn, and Williams, along with a precinct for pop.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #208 on: February 19, 2020, 08:26:53 PM »

So after everyone discussed COIs a while back, I decided to explore a map that was mainly based on COIs. It ended up unusual. The 'guiding' districts in this case were CD5 which has all of the tri-cities and Flint, CD4 which crosses the Saginaw river to link the Thump and the Upstate, CD1 which actually gets all of the non-urbanized west coast, and CD7 which puts all the notable central MI college towns together. CD9 gets the Grosse Pointe's because their local lines cross the border of Wayne and Macomb. One of the AA seats has all the arabs, as I tend to prefer when possible. The main victim of the mid-state getting their COI's is CD8, but it isn't affected too much as far as pop distribution is concerned.

Trump won 7 seats when he won by less than 1%. When whitmer won by 10% she no only got the 6 Clinton seats and the swingy Macomb seat, she also got the Grand Rapids seat by <3K votes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7f30e42-14ef-444d-a14b-2e7b25639720




The GR district should go into Ottawa, not rural areas to the east.  Also, D-8 can be kept within Livingston and Oakland.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #209 on: February 20, 2020, 10:41:04 AM »

It will be interesting to see what the dynamic of the commission will be.

Justin Leavitt made a presentation to the the selection panel in California, in which he said one of the main skills that commissioners should have is the ability to question their lawyers and demographers and other experts.

In Michigan, the commissioners are going to be drawn by lottery, with almost zero screening. Michigan does not have partisan registration, and party selection in primary elections is secret. Yet the commissioners are expected to declare a party affiliation and be selected on that basis.

The SOS who is in charge of the lottery added a couple of optional questions, letting an applicant explain why they considered themselves affiliated with a party, and why they wanted to serve on the commission. Each of the four legislative leaders may make 5 strikes  from a randomly selected pool of 200 (60D, 60R, and 80I).

Remember they won't be choosing commissioners, they will be knocking potential commissioners. If you are a Republican leader who do you go after? Some independents who you think might be biased? Some Democrats who you think might be forceful leaders. No doubt they will try to do some background checks, but even if you work with the other leader of your party, you can only take out 10 of 200.

The commission of 13 total strangers of varying competence will be expected to choose a lawyer and mapping specialists, and arrange hearings, etc. The SOS is designated as the secretary of the commission. Will they be susceptible to being led?

I mentioned this in my original writeup. White there is some degree of self-selection, you need to respond to the SoS's mailed invitation, and said self-selection will trend towards 'professionals' with the time and knowledge to commit to their potential undertaking, it will lead to a more random and fragmented selection than in CA. This could very well lead to cliques of councilors forming, a handful of individuals dominating the commission, or potential 'guidance' from the SoS. However, it's most likely to result in individuals committed to their preconceived COIs from their region of the state, and therefore will only approve maps that conform to those guidelines, along with the most vocal of public input.

Your original statement says that the SOS will "select" the 200 persons in the final pool.

This is not true. The 200 finalists will be chosen to match state demographics (e.g. 36 from Wayne, 24 from Oakland, 17 from Macomb, 12 from Kent, etc. Perhaps below this level, the selection will be by region. It will likely be sex- and race-, and ethnicity-stratified. It may be age-stratified. While applications are available in Arabic, there is no way to indicate this on the application (if someone applies in Arabic can they really participate on the commission - will there have to be translation?).

It is unknown how political balancing will be done. Logically, a larger share of the Democratic pool will be Blacks from Detroit.

Half of the 200 will be chosen from those who applied on their own. This may lead to more professional applicants. The other 100 will be chosen from those who responded to the mailout to 250,000 random Michigan voters. That should be 45,500 in Wayne. If 1% respond, that is 2500 persons. There is going to be a lot of non-professionals.

In California, there were 21,004 original applicants. This was reduced to 17,090 after an initial cursory screening. 2,206 completed a supplemental application that included essay questions, 2,003 also provided letters of recommendation. 90% of initial applicants went away after it started looking like a job application.

In Michigan there is nothing like the supplemental application. The hardest part is that the application must be notarized, but 100s of notaries have volunteered to do this for free. The only barrier is that some people have never been before a notary. The pool in Michigan is going to be a lot more like that initial 21,000 who applied, rather than the 2000 that bothered to fill out a full application with essay questions and recommendations.

The applicant pool in California was reduced from 2003 to 685 in November based on reading the applications by the 3 auditors and their staffs of the Auditor Review Panel, who on average recommended 367 applicants by each panelist. A second screening reduced the 685 to 342, with each panelist recommending an average of 230 individuals.

The current process is to reduce the pools to 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 40 other, who will be called in for interviews. The ARP is meeting this week to do that. This latest screening includes background checks and requires a statement of financial interests.

These 120 will be reduced to 60 after the interviews. The four legislative leaders may each strike 2 applicants from each subpool of 20, potentially reducing them to 12 each. 8 members (3R, 3D, and 2O) will be drawn randomly from the three pools. The other 6 members will be chosen by this initial 8. Austin used a similar process. Their random drawing produced an almost entirely Hispanic panel, which had to pick Anglos to balance the commission.

In Michigan, the SOS will randomly draw, though stratified, pools of 60R, 60D, and 80O. These will in turn be split in two subpools of 30 from voluntary applicants and 30 from the 250,000 solicited voters.

The legislative leaders will be able to strike 5 each from the total pool of 200. They will be doing this largely blind other than what they can garner from investigation by the political parties.

The final drawing of 13. While a naive assumption would be that there would be one commissioner from the region of each potential congressional district, this is quite unlikely.

In Michigan you have the additional difficulty that there is no partisan registration, and party selection in primaries is anonymous. Are Sanders supporters necessarily Democrats? Are Trump supporters necessarily Republican?

It is entirely wishful thinking that the Michigan commissioners will be particularly competent or representative of the state as a whole.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #210 on: February 20, 2020, 10:48:25 AM »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
How much population is north of Muskegon-Kent-Clinton-Midland-Bay? Can you get two districts, even coming further south without touching those urban counties.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #211 on: February 20, 2020, 10:54:20 AM »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
How much population is north of Muskegon-Kent-Clinton-Midland-Bay? Can you get two districts, even coming further south without touching those urban counties.

Assuming that you treat Gratiot and Ionia as the rest of the boundary, just under 1.2m people according to the 2016 estimates. So not that much more than a district and a half.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #212 on: February 20, 2020, 11:31:23 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2020, 11:46:35 AM by dpmapper »



My latest iteration (this time with 2016 populations) -- you can have a reasonable pan-Huron district if you just keep all of Bay.  The Flint district takes Midland and was won by Clinton.  The Lansing-Mt. Pleasant district is fairly coherent, Trump won here by less than a point.  Muskegon down to Benton Harbor/St. Joseph is coherent, Kalamazoo-Battle Creek-Jackson works well, and Monroe is paired with southern Wayne rather than counties to its west.
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palandio
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« Reply #213 on: February 20, 2020, 01:57:25 PM »

Monroe + Southern Wayne is a pairing that seems very natural to me and I was wondering why it was so rare in the maps that were posted so far.

The challenge I can see is to draw a Monroe + Southern Wayne district without splitting the Middle Eastern communities in e.g. Dearborn, Livonia and other areas.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #214 on: February 20, 2020, 02:15:47 PM »

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 
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Sol
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« Reply #215 on: February 20, 2020, 03:15:37 PM »

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 

IIRC there are fair few Yemenis in Hamtramck.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #216 on: February 20, 2020, 03:26:45 PM »

Monroe + Southern Wayne is a pairing that seems very natural to me and I was wondering why it was so rare in the maps that were posted so far.

The challenge I can see is to draw a Monroe + Southern Wayne district without splitting the Middle Eastern communities in e.g. Dearborn, Livonia and other areas.

Monroe is funny. The population along the border with Wayne is quite low. Most of the population is in the southern part of the county and consists of suburbs/exurbs of Toledo (over the border in Ohio), plus the small city of Monroe itself. There is some outer Detroit metro spillover in the north of the county, but it doesn't pair naturally with inner suburbs deep in Wayne. It pairs much better with Washtenaw, which is also an area connected to but peripheral to the Detroit metro.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #217 on: February 20, 2020, 03:34:54 PM »

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 

IIRC there are fair few Yemenis in Hamtramck.

I'm not sure Hamtramck is Muslim Majority, Wikipedia metions that it's city council is. Even though the Bengali and Pakistani Muslims are different from their Arab cousins, I'm sure they would prefer to be together rather than cracked between the AA seat. This is why I always reach an arm in there for my MI-12/13s. Heading west you got some in Livonia and the other townships in that western line (Redford, Plymouth, etc), though they are more of an Arab Christian Descent.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #218 on: February 20, 2020, 04:45:26 PM »

What areas of Wayne besides Dearborn have the highest concentrations of Arab-Americans? 

IIRC there are fair few Yemenis in Hamtramck.

I'm not sure Hamtramck is Muslim Majority, Wikipedia metions that it's city council is. Even though the Bengali and Pakistani Muslims are different from their Arab cousins, I'm sure they would prefer to be together rather than cracked between the AA seat. This is why I always reach an arm in there for my MI-12/13s. Heading west you got some in Livonia and the other townships in that western line (Redford, Plymouth, etc), though they are more of an Arab Christian Descent.


This seems like a useful image.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #219 on: February 20, 2020, 05:36:08 PM »

So other than Dearborn and Dearborn Heights (and maybe Hamtramck if you can manage it) it doesn't seem to be worth it to try to connect any other particular town for the sake of the Arab Americans?

Monroe doesn't naturally belong with Dearborn but the outer portions of Wayne would seem to be just fine; better that than rural counties to the west.  I don't see what it really has to do with a college town like Ann Arbor other than "somewhat outside Detroit". 
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jimrtex
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« Reply #220 on: February 20, 2020, 06:56:59 PM »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
How much population is north of Muskegon-Kent-Clinton-Midland-Bay? Can you get two districts, even coming further south without touching those urban counties.

Assuming that you treat Gratiot and Ionia as the rest of the boundary, just under 1.2m people according to the 2016 estimates. So not that much more than a district and a half.

I was wondering whether it is even possible to draw two districts, where the largest L.P. city is Traverse City (but I see even that would exclude Mt.Pleasant). But if we wanted to make those two the largest cities are we still short?

If so, then there may be three acceptable options:

(1) Take Muskegon (the UP district then goes down the Huron shore)
(2) Take Midland and ... (accept that are combining COI)
(3) Sneak across to take the thumb (but I'm not too keen on going down to St.Clair) which will be a significant chunk of the population).

Not-acceptable.
(4) Into Kent
(5) Into Clinton
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jimrtex
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« Reply #221 on: February 20, 2020, 07:13:39 PM »

Monroe + Southern Wayne is a pairing that seems very natural to me and I was wondering why it was so rare in the maps that were posted so far.

The challenge I can see is to draw a Monroe + Southern Wayne district without splitting the Middle Eastern communities in e.g. Dearborn, Livonia and other areas.
Historically, Monroe has stronger ties to Toledo than it does Detroit. Toledo is on the Ohio line, while Detroit is on the northern Wayne line or has grown out to it. You can't go directly south from the center of Detroit without going into Canada. Detroit has generally grown more to the north than to the west, or southwest.

Practically, if you are trying to keep whole counties, it may be easier to exclude Monroe, St.Clair and Livingston if you want equal population districts (that is, you start with Wayne, Oakland, and Macomb) and determine the whole number of districts, and add in others to complete the last district.

Monroe is either flexible, or not significant a COI to be treated as other than X people.
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« Reply #222 on: February 20, 2020, 11:10:21 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2020, 07:42:36 AM by Oryxslayer »

Since we are on the topic of Arab communities, I decided to go download the latest ACS data and see for myself what the present lay of the ground is. Here is a map of all people claiming Mid-Eastern descent in the metro - not just Arabs but Turks, Iranians, and others that would prefer being in the arab seat to anywhere else. Compared to the more limited view shown above, the Larger Arab pockets in Dearborn, Dearborn heights and Hamtramk have expanded. This is mainly because of the turnover since then, Arabs moving in and the older residents moving out. The map though also captures the Arab Christians that I mentioned earlier to the west of Dearborn - Assyrians, Lebanese, and others who may be missed by a more limited scope. If we are solely confining the Arab or Arab+AA seat to Wayne, and preventing it from tendrilling into the suburbs, then those western towns are the next best additions. There is this idea of doing parallel cuts into Oakland, so that the Arab seat can grab more Arabs and the AA seat grabs Pontiac, however such things appear to be banned by the commission.

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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #223 on: February 21, 2020, 09:49:46 AM »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
How much population is north of Muskegon-Kent-Clinton-Midland-Bay? Can you get two districts, even coming further south without touching those urban counties.

Assuming that you treat Gratiot and Ionia as the rest of the boundary, just under 1.2m people according to the 2016 estimates. So not that much more than a district and a half.

I was wondering whether it is even possible to draw two districts, where the largest L.P. city is Traverse City (but I see even that would exclude Mt.Pleasant). But if we wanted to make those two the largest cities are we still short?

If so, then there may be three acceptable options:

(1) Take Muskegon (the UP district then goes down the Huron shore)
(2) Take Midland and ... (accept that are combining COI)
(3) Sneak across to take the thumb (but I'm not too keen on going down to St.Clair) which will be a significant chunk of the population).

Not-acceptable.
(4) Into Kent
(5) Into Clinton


Option 1 is probably not feasible - if you add Muskegon, Ionia and Gratiot to the northern group then you're still short about 50k from the necessary population for two seats, so you need to reach into the fringes of Ottawa/Kent/Clinton/Midland/Bay or some combination thereof to get the numbers up. And if the 1st district is going right down to Muskegon, then there's only room for the LP part of it to be one county wide (and even then you need to lose 10k people.)

Option 3 is also cutting a COI, because whilst you can draw a map putting Bay City in with Flint and the rest of Tri-Cities, realistically it's probably not going to happen because of the road contiguity issue.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #224 on: February 21, 2020, 01:34:10 PM »
« Edited: February 21, 2020, 01:38:40 PM by Tintrlvr »

As it happens, I just finished drawing a similar map based off a district jumping over the Saginaw River:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/38383e2f-7132-4b5e-89b0-7b8c8bdcd477

The major differences to Oryxslayer's map are that Shiawassee goes in the Lansing district and Jackson mostly in the Kalamazoo district and that Grand Rapids district goes west instead of east.

Clinton wins six districts in this map, but two of them only narrowly. Obama carried ten of them in 2008 (though not the Grand Rapids district, which these days is probably the seventh best Democratic prospect.)

I think this map has some positives to it, but overall I think it shows the problem of a Thumb/Huron Shore district, which is that the two areas aren't really big enough for a congressional district. To get the necessary population, you either need to reach into exurban Macomb, or the Tri-Cities area, or well into the interior of northern Michigan, or some combination thereof. And if you're going to do that, why not just go the whole hog and tack the two areas on to separate districts?
How much population is north of Muskegon-Kent-Clinton-Midland-Bay? Can you get two districts, even coming further south without touching those urban counties.

Assuming that you treat Gratiot and Ionia as the rest of the boundary, just under 1.2m people according to the 2016 estimates. So not that much more than a district and a half.

I was wondering whether it is even possible to draw two districts, where the largest L.P. city is Traverse City (but I see even that would exclude Mt.Pleasant). But if we wanted to make those two the largest cities are we still short?

If so, then there may be three acceptable options:

(1) Take Muskegon (the UP district then goes down the Huron shore)
(2) Take Midland and ... (accept that are combining COI)
(3) Sneak across to take the thumb (but I'm not too keen on going down to St.Clair) which will be a significant chunk of the population).

Not-acceptable.
(4) Into Kent
(5) Into Clinton


Option 1 is probably not feasible - if you add Muskegon, Ionia and Gratiot to the northern group then you're still short about 50k from the necessary population for two seats, so you need to reach into the fringes of Ottawa/Kent/Clinton/Midland/Bay or some combination thereof to get the numbers up. And if the 1st district is going right down to Muskegon, then there's only room for the LP part of it to be one county wide (and even then you need to lose 10k people.)

Option 3 is also cutting a COI, because whilst you can draw a map putting Bay City in with Flint and the rest of Tri-Cities, realistically it's probably not going to happen because of the road contiguity issue.

You could go into Barry County from Ionia. That's messy and dipping pretty far south, but Barry County is enough to make up the difference and is pretty rural.

That said, I'm not sure why Muskegon would be preferable to Midland and/or Bay. Muskegon is a bigger metro than either.
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