2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #175 on: February 17, 2020, 04:27:55 PM »

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.
Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

It's explicitly not a region based on that link. Midland, Saginaw and Bay City are all separate MSAs. The "Central Michigan" region as defined by the state of Michigan also includes Flint as well as Mount Pleasant and some rural counties.
Well it's not a metro but a region which is a CSA.  Not all CSAs can be kept together but this can.  Tri cities are more a region than Flint and Saginaw.  The tri cities have economic ties and share an airport.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #176 on: February 17, 2020, 04:31:49 PM »

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.
Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #177 on: February 17, 2020, 04:33:47 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2020, 04:38:36 PM by EastAnglianLefty »

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.
Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

Let's look at the actual criteria for COI:

The constitution prioritizes the criteria:

(1) Equal Population.
(2) Contiguity
(3) COI " Districts shall reflect the state's diverse population and communities of interest. Communities of interest may include, but shall not be limited to, populations that share cultural or historical characteristics or economic interests."
(4) Political fairness.
(5) Not favoring/disfavoring incumbent or candidate.
(6) Reflect consideration of county, city, and township boundaries.
(7) Reasonably compact.

The existence of minority communities can fairly clearly be argued to be a cultural characteristic (and to some extent also reflects historic economic patterns.) Historically, Genesee and the bulk of Saginaw's population have been in the same congressional district since 1992 and Saginaw and Midland haven't been in the same district since at least 1972. And yes, post-industrial cities rapidly losing population have more in common with each economically other than they do with rural areas with no industrial heritage whatsoever.

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #178 on: February 17, 2020, 04:44:39 PM »

Most Clear COIs:
6 county Detroit area
3 county Lansing area
UP
Thumb
Flint
Grand Rapids and suburbs in eastern Ottawa county

Other COIs that should be respected if possible:
Macomb
Livingston+exurban Oakland
Tri-Cities Area
Ann Arbor+college educated communities in western Wayne
Arab communities in Wayne
Kalamazoo-Battle Creek
Huron Coast


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #179 on: February 17, 2020, 04:45:28 PM »

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.
Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

And Lansing and the thumb have better partners than Flint. Remember how I said that the rural, Lakeshore oriented, thumb is best paired with the upstate. How it is something every Michigan resident I have consulted with agrees to? Hell, Even
 Dave Wasserman in a hypothetical map linked the two. Well, we cannot link the two via water across the bay. Therefore, going through Bay City is the easiest solution. Guess what? Flint + Saginaw + Midland is a viable cd, with a bit more tacked on of course.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #180 on: February 17, 2020, 04:49:12 PM »

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.
Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

Let's look at the actual criteria for COI:

The constitution prioritizes the criteria:

(1) Equal Population.
(2) Contiguity
(3) COI " Districts shall reflect the state's diverse population and communities of interest. Communities of interest may include, but shall not be limited to, populations that share cultural or historical characteristics or economic interests."
(4) Political fairness.
(5) Not favoring/disfavoring incumbent or candidate.
(6) Reflect consideration of county, city, and township boundaries.
(7) Reasonably compact.

The existence of minority communities can fairly clearly be argued to be a cultural characteristic (and to some extent also reflects historic economic patterns.) Historically, Genesee and the bulk of Saginaw's population have been in the same congressional district since 1992 and Saginaw and Midland haven't been in the same district since at least 1972. And yes, post-industrial cities rapidly losing population have more in common with each economically other than they do with rural areas with no industrial heritage whatsoever.

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.
I thought it had been settled metro Detroit was a COI.  Exurban Detroit with the Thumb makes no sense.  The thumb would go better with Flint, tri cities, or the rest of the coast.  Detroit is its own thing.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #181 on: February 17, 2020, 04:56:52 PM »

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.

Imagine seriously defending the idea that Saginaw has more of a COI with the west coast of Michigan than with Flint.
Not with western MI, with the tri-cities area.  Saginaw-Flint breaks up the tri-cities area.

What's so special about that grouping in particular? They don't have anything more in common with each other than Saginaw has with Flint. Less, generally, as there are significant demographic differences. For example, Bay City and Midland are nearly 100% white while Saginaw has a large black population. Saginaw is also historically an industrial city while Bay City is a shipping center and Midland is more high tech and services.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saginaw,_Midland,_and_Bay_City_metropolitan_area
Tri cities are a region of MI, Flint and Saginaw are two different cities that both happen to have black people.  Race doesn't make a COI, but it matters for VRA purposes in Detroit.

Let's look at the actual criteria for COI:

The constitution prioritizes the criteria:

(1) Equal Population.
(2) Contiguity
(3) COI " Districts shall reflect the state's diverse population and communities of interest. Communities of interest may include, but shall not be limited to, populations that share cultural or historical characteristics or economic interests."
(4) Political fairness.
(5) Not favoring/disfavoring incumbent or candidate.
(6) Reflect consideration of county, city, and township boundaries.
(7) Reasonably compact.

The existence of minority communities can fairly clearly be argued to be a cultural characteristic (and to some extent also reflects historic economic patterns.) Historically, Genesee and the bulk of Saginaw's population have been in the same congressional district since 1992 and Saginaw and Midland haven't been in the same district since at least 1972. And yes, post-industrial cities rapidly losing population have more in common with each economically other than they do with rural areas with no industrial heritage whatsoever.

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.
I thought it had been settled metro Detroit was a COI.  Exurban Detroit with the Thumb makes no sense.  The thumb would go better with Flint, tri cities, or the rest of the coast.  Detroit is its own thing.

Detroit is its own thing. The Detroit metropolitan area is a thing. I see no evidence that's the same thing as the northern townships of Oakland and Macomb, which aren't urbanised to any significant degree. The fact that Ray township is in the same county as Warren doesn't mean it is actually meaningfully like Warren.

FWIW, I think the Thumb probably goes best with northern Michigan via Bay (I might even be tempted to cut out Bay City into the Flint/Tri-Cities district and jump the Saginaw River, though I doubt a commission would go for that.) But I see no reason to get precious about breaching the St. Clair-Macomb boundary or the Oakland-Lapeer boundary if you're not going to reach down into the actual urban area itself.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #182 on: February 17, 2020, 05:39:38 PM »



2012/2016 composite

Well I listened to complaints and made adjustments, now there's a Flint-Saginaw-Midland district which votes Dem in the last 2 elections, albeit narrowly in 2016.  Now the Thumb is part of a Huron Coast district.  I still prefer the previous map, but this one would be more passable being 7-6. 
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #183 on: February 17, 2020, 06:20:42 PM »



2012/2016 composite

Well I listened to complaints and made adjustments, now there's a Flint-Saginaw-Midland district which votes Dem in the last 2 elections, albeit narrowly in 2016.  Now the Thumb is part of a Huron Coast district.  I still prefer the previous map, but this one would be more passable being 7-6.  

For what it's worth, you appear to be using 2010 census figures (thus the larger Grand Rapids-based district than my map, e.g., and the bigger split of Lenawee), which may be skewing the map in other ways. 2016 estimates are not the same as what will be reported in the 2020 census, of course, but they should be closer to 2020 than 2010 figures would be.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #184 on: February 17, 2020, 06:28:26 PM »



2012/2016 composite

Well I listened to complaints and made adjustments, now there's a Flint-Saginaw-Midland district which votes Dem in the last 2 elections, albeit narrowly in 2016.  Now the Thumb is part of a Huron Coast district.  I still prefer the previous map, but this one would be more passable being 7-6.  

For what it's worth, you appear to be using 2010 census figures (thus the larger Grand Rapids-based district than my map, e.g., and the bigger split of Lenawee), which may be skewing the map in other ways. 2016 estimates are not the same as what will be reported in the 2020 census, of course, but they should be closer to 2020 than 2010 figures would be.

Hell, I'm not even sure why you are using the 2010 module for Michigan - the 2016 one uniquely has 2016 election data.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #185 on: February 17, 2020, 06:39:04 PM »



For what it's worth, you appear to be using 2010 census figures (thus the larger Grand Rapids-based district than my map, e.g., and the bigger split of Lenawee), which may be skewing the map in other ways. 2016 estimates are not the same as what will be reported in the 2020 census, of course, but they should be closer to 2020 than 2010 figures would be.

my map adjusted for 2016 population estimates.  GR area looks better.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #186 on: February 17, 2020, 08:39:44 PM »

not really.  You just want them together so the seat doesn't vote Trump.  Saginaw and Flint are different cities, not a single COI.  Now if I'm a Republican on the commission, I might still agree to a Flint-Saginaw district, it's a small concession.  But the other side would need to cooperate in other areas.  It's inevitable some districts will be drawn in a way that disproportionately favor one party, but the whole map can't be drawn with subtle decisions that all happen to favor 1 party.

The commission isn't made up of political apparatchiks or rabid party hacks. All the members are selected at random from a pool of independent applicants. And to serve on the commission you can't actually have any political ties whatsoever (no position within a party, staffer, lobbyist, consultant etc), merely that you registered as a member of a party on voter rolls. Just look at the Arizona commission for what the membership will be like. All lawyers, most with doctorates and additional degrees, and with no actual political links.
The aim of the commission is not to draw a bipartisan gerrymander. It's to draw a fair map that prioritises COIs while making sure it doesn't advantage either party (and yes that means adjusting for the geographic disadvantage).
Michigan does not have party registration.

Why are suggesting looking at Arizona?

I don't understand the part about lawyers and additional degrees.

Explain?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #187 on: February 17, 2020, 09:19:29 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2020, 09:47:21 PM by jimrtex »

"Flint gets its own district" is a particularly euphemistic way of describing a fairly obvious attempt at cracking.
To get to 6 districts in SE Michigan you have a choice between adding Genesee or Washtenaw.

Ypsilanti is tied to Detroit as much as it is Ann Arbor. Going north you are in clearly exurban low populated areas before you get to Flint.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #188 on: February 17, 2020, 09:38:35 PM »

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.
Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

And Lansing and the thumb have better partners than Flint. Remember how I said that the rural, Lakeshore oriented, thumb is best paired with the upstate. How it is something every Michigan resident I have consulted with agrees to? Hell, Even
 Dave Wasserman in a hypothetical map linked the two. Well, we cannot link the two via water across the bay. Therefore, going through Bay City is the easiest solution. Guess what? Flint + Saginaw + Midland is a viable cd, with a bit more tacked on of course.

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #189 on: February 17, 2020, 09:44:45 PM »

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.
Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

And Lansing and the thumb have better partners than Flint. Remember how I said that the rural, Lakeshore oriented, thumb is best paired with the upstate. How it is something every Michigan resident I have consulted with agrees to? Hell, Even
 Dave Wasserman in a hypothetical map linked the two. Well, we cannot link the two via water across the bay. Therefore, going through Bay City is the easiest solution. Guess what? Flint + Saginaw + Midland is a viable cd, with a bit more tacked on of course.

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.
Districts should be contiguous unless they physically can't be (like the UP).  I think the vast majority of people would agree.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #190 on: February 17, 2020, 09:53:57 PM »


Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.
Districts should be contiguous unless they physically can't be (like the UP).  I think the vast majority of people would agree.
In the 19th Century, the two northern Michigan districts were Huron+Superior shoreline and Michigan shoreline, both UP and LP.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #191 on: February 17, 2020, 10:01:24 PM »

The recognized tri-cities community is Saginaw-Midland-Bay City, but most groupers also throw in Flint because of the regions economic ties. They are all oriented along route 85, and all are at least somewhat postindustrial. They all are distinct from the rural thumb, whose most similar cousins are across the bay in upper Michigan (all residents I have chat with want something like this), all distinct from the universities to their west, and distinct from the Detroit suburbs to their south.

The point of keeping counties whole is that counties are the default COI. If there is no better or clearer COI, the the county level is best observed. If there is a better COI, than it comes before the county. If there are lots of counties like in Michigan, you get cross-county COIs that deserve the same respect as inter-county ones. We have cases here where those outside of Wayne have clear cross-county COIs: rural Thumb+Upland, the route 85 tri-cities corridor, the central universities, and the Wayne exurbs.
Well the tri cities and Flint can't be together.  You can do Tri Cities or Flint-Saginaw.  If Flint isn't paired with Saginaw it can go with Lansing or the Thumb.

And Lansing and the thumb have better partners than Flint. Remember how I said that the rural, Lakeshore oriented, thumb is best paired with the upstate. How it is something every Michigan resident I have consulted with agrees to? Hell, Even
 Dave Wasserman in a hypothetical map linked the two. Well, we cannot link the two via water across the bay. Therefore, going through Bay City is the easiest solution. Guess what? Flint + Saginaw + Midland is a viable cd, with a bit more tacked on of course.

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.

I agree in theory, and I don't think this is a completely crazy idea as it does keep genuinely rural areas together and separate from cities, but I think it would meet with a fair amount of resistance.
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« Reply #192 on: February 18, 2020, 12:29:17 AM »

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.
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« Reply #193 on: February 18, 2020, 01:59:47 AM »

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.
Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lasing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.
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« Reply #194 on: February 18, 2020, 02:14:17 AM »

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.
Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lansing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.
A Thumb+N Macomb/Oakland district seems like the best way to balance COIs. A Thumb+N Michigan would be better but then you either split the Tri Cities or force Flint into a horrid pairing with the Detroit exurbs or combined with Lansing in a clear gerrymander. The Thumb doesn't really have anywhere good to go that doesn't mess with other COIs, but combining it with the Detroit exurbs and rural fringe seems like the pairing that causes the least harm. And I don't think anyone debates that the 4th will be the seat that's eliminated. Hard to see how the 4th could possibly survive, really.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #195 on: February 18, 2020, 03:16:20 AM »

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.
Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lansing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.
A Thumb+N Macomb/Oakland district seems like the best way to balance COIs. A Thumb+N Michigan would be better but then you either split the Tri Cities or force Flint into a horrid pairing with the Detroit exurbs or combined with Lansing in a clear gerrymander. The Thumb doesn't really have anywhere good to go that doesn't mess with other COIs, but combining it with the Detroit exurbs and rural fringe seems like the pairing that causes the least harm. And I don't think anyone debates that the 4th will be the seat that's eliminated. Hard to see how the 4th could possibly survive, really.

Here is a map with a Flint+Tri Cities district.  Overall a pretty fair map and I could see the commission passing something like this.  Likely a 7R-6D map but either side could pick off another seat or 2 in a good year.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #196 on: February 18, 2020, 04:53:06 AM »

I would also note that it's not even an either/or whether Saginaw goes with Genesee or with Bay and Midland. Based on 2018 numbers, that four county group has about 2% too many people, which can easily be dealt with by cutting out western Midland or northern Bay, neither or which are obviously out of place in a northern Michigan district. Your argument actually depends upon the notion that the Thumb can't go with exurban Macomb and/or Oakland, which is not a proposition you've actually made coherently yet.

Genesee+Tri-Cities counties is indeed only 16k over pop on 2018 estimates. And for comparison they were 57k over in 2010 and 35k over in 2016. Given the rate of decline it looks very likely that Genesee+Saginaw+Bay+Midland Counties will be extremely close to perfect population in the 2020 census. Which only makes the Flint+Tri-Cities pairing more appealing.
Clinton won such a a district by about 2,000 votes. If you do that, you all but assure a thumb+northern Macomb district.  This is similar to the current map, but there will definitely be differences.  I predict Lansing will be kept whole and an exurban Oakland+Livingston district.  MI-4 is likely the seat eliminated.
A Thumb+N Macomb/Oakland district seems like the best way to balance COIs. A Thumb+N Michigan would be better but then you either split the Tri Cities or force Flint into a horrid pairing with the Detroit exurbs or combined with Lansing in a clear gerrymander. The Thumb doesn't really have anywhere good to go that doesn't mess with other COIs, but combining it with the Detroit exurbs and rural fringe seems like the pairing that causes the least harm. And I don't think anyone debates that the 4th will be the seat that's eliminated. Hard to see how the 4th could possibly survive, really.

Here is a map with a Flint+Tri Cities district.  Overall a pretty fair map and I could see the commission passing something like this.  Likely a 7R-6D map but either side could pick off another seat or 2 in a good year.

Somewhere between your map and the above map looks likely to result from the commission.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #197 on: February 18, 2020, 11:39:22 AM »

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.

I agree in theory, and I don't think this is a completely crazy idea as it does keep genuinely rural areas together and separate from cities, but I think it would meet with a fair amount of resistance.

It will be interesting to see what the dynamic of the commission will be.

Justin Leavitt made a presentation to the the selection panel in California, in which he said one of the main skills that commissioners should have is the ability to question their lawyers and demographers and other experts.

In Michigan, the commissioners are going to be drawn by lottery, with almost zero screening. Michigan does not have partisan registration, and party selection in primary elections is secret. Yet the commissioners are expected to declare a party affiliation and be selected on that basis.

The SOS who is in charge of the lottery added a couple of optional questions, letting an applicant explain why they considered themselves affiliated with a party, and why they wanted to serve on the commission. Each of the four legislative leaders may make 5 strikes  from a randomly selected pool of 200 (60D, 60R, and 80I).

Remember they won't be choosing commissioners, they will be knocking potential commissioners. If you are a Republican leader who do you go after? Some independents who you think might be biased? Some Democrats who you think might be forceful leaders. No doubt they will try to do some background checks, but even if you work with the other leader of your party, you can only take out 10 of 200.

The commission of 13 total strangers of varying competence will be expected to choose a lawyer and mapping specialists, and arrange hearings, etc. The SOS is designated as the secretary of the commission. Will they be susceptible to being led?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #198 on: February 19, 2020, 12:14:56 PM »

Why can't you go across Saginaw Bay?

"Districts shall be geographically contiguous. Island areas are considered to be contiguous by land to the county of which they are a part."

Doesn't this say that counties encompass all offshore waters, including any islands.

I agree in theory, and I don't think this is a completely crazy idea as it does keep genuinely rural areas together and separate from cities, but I think it would meet with a fair amount of resistance.

It will be interesting to see what the dynamic of the commission will be.

Justin Leavitt made a presentation to the the selection panel in California, in which he said one of the main skills that commissioners should have is the ability to question their lawyers and demographers and other experts.

In Michigan, the commissioners are going to be drawn by lottery, with almost zero screening. Michigan does not have partisan registration, and party selection in primary elections is secret. Yet the commissioners are expected to declare a party affiliation and be selected on that basis.

The SOS who is in charge of the lottery added a couple of optional questions, letting an applicant explain why they considered themselves affiliated with a party, and why they wanted to serve on the commission. Each of the four legislative leaders may make 5 strikes  from a randomly selected pool of 200 (60D, 60R, and 80I).

Remember they won't be choosing commissioners, they will be knocking potential commissioners. If you are a Republican leader who do you go after? Some independents who you think might be biased? Some Democrats who you think might be forceful leaders. No doubt they will try to do some background checks, but even if you work with the other leader of your party, you can only take out 10 of 200.

The commission of 13 total strangers of varying competence will be expected to choose a lawyer and mapping specialists, and arrange hearings, etc. The SOS is designated as the secretary of the commission. Will they be susceptible to being led?

I mentioned this in my original writeup. White there is some degree of self-selection, you need to respond to the SoS's mailed invitation, and said self-selection will trend towards 'professionals' with the time and knowledge to commit to their potential undertaking, it will lead to a ore random and fragmented selection than in CA. This could very well lead to cliques of councilors forming, a handful of individuals dominating the commission, or potential 'guidance' from the SoS. However, it's most likely to result in individuals committed to their preconceived COIs from their region of the state, and therefore will only approve maps that conform to those guidelines, along with the most vocal of public input.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #199 on: February 19, 2020, 12:29:11 PM »

So after everyone discussed COIs a while back, I decided to explore a map that was mainly based on COIs. It ended up unusual. The 'guiding' districts in this case were CD5 which has all of the tri-cities and Flint, CD4 which crosses the Saginaw river to link the Thump and the Upstate, CD1 which actually gets all of the non-urbanized west coast, and CD7 which puts all the notable central MI college towns together. CD9 gets the Grosse Pointe's because their local lines cross the border of Wayne and Macomb. One of the AA seats has all the arabs, as I tend to prefer when possible. The main victim of the mid-state getting their COI's is CD8, but it isn't affected too much as far as pop distribution is concerned.

Trump won 7 seats when he won by less than 1%. When whitmer won by 10% she no only got the 6 Clinton seats and the swingy Macomb seat, she also got the Grand Rapids seat by <3K votes.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c7f30e42-14ef-444d-a14b-2e7b25639720



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