How did Trump win over most of the South in the 2016 Republican primary? (user search)
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  How did Trump win over most of the South in the 2016 Republican primary? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win over most of the South in the 2016 Republican primary?  (Read 2040 times)
Intell
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,812
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« on: February 11, 2020, 12:19:45 AM »

Rural, southern whites are not "conservative" in the traditional sense nor are they particularly churchgoing; those are characteristics of Southern suburbs and exurbs.

I don't know if this applies to other southern states, but in the dallas-houston suburbs, there is a divide between the evangelical, and churchgoing lot and the non-evangelical mainstream protestant and non-churchgoing lot. While before all four groups would be quite republican by various degrees in the past, in recent years, starting  with Obama they became less less republican, and in 2016 and especially 2018 midterms this group became quite democratic.
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Intell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,812
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -1.24

« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2020, 04:51:00 AM »

The South is a notoriously evangelical region, so it should have gone to Ted Cruz or another candidate who focused more on social/religious issues. Trump was mostly focused on economics in the Upper Midwest, though.

No, absolutely not. Trump's major selling point to GOP primary voters wasn't so much economics (although many liked his message there obviously) but that he was a fighter who would unashamedly and outrageously attack the liberal media and liberal cultural elites. Many, many evangelical voters in the South felt that the cultural progress under the Obama administration had put their very way of life at risk and they were excited by a candidate who was fighting dirty against it.

I agree with this, you cannot under estimate the siege mentality on the right and the feeling going back to Bush that Republicans lack a backbone to defend themselves from the left, much less go on the offensive.

As an additional point, this forum has historically failed to understand the importance of the immigration issue as it relates to the base and this is a factor across much of the South especially, particularly in the era of migrant labor being so widespread and the sense of jobs displacement and being blamed for declining wages in low skilled, non-college fields. Guess where Trump's strongest support came from? Those same people would express this concern openly.

How do these voters feel about social issues. Because in white working class Massachusetts/RI and across New England white working class (lower-middle class) areas, I have experienced an apathy towards social issues like abortion and ssm  and the reasons republicans did poorly there in the past is because no-one cared about these issues and economics were never going to be a vote winner for them.

Meanwhile, Trump spoke about Immigration and played into racial anxiety and the idea that latinos are taking their jobs (which sometimes happen) and their neighbourhoods are becoming less white ethnic and increasingly of a foreign culture. This was accompanied with economic issues like decline of industry which brought even those who don't care but don't support immigration into the trump fold.

I assume in the south, there would be a divide between evangelicals and non-evangelical working class vote? But with Trump (immigration) and Obama (race) the non-evangelical working class vote became increasingly republican, while the evangelicals were always solidly republican?
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