UT-Hinckley: Trump with wide leads

[Skye]

Trump 49
Biden 31

Trump 50
Sanders 31

Trump 50
Warren 28

Trump 48
Buttigieg 25

Trump 49
Klobuchar 23

Trump 45
Bloomberg 32

Trump Approval: 53/44
Remove Trump from office: 39/53

his Hinckley-Deseret News poll of 1,017 registered voters was conducted online from January 15 - 22, 2020 by Scott Rasmussen. Data was weighted to reflect the voting population in accordance with state elections and U.S. Census data.
Margin of error is +/- 3.1% unless otherwise noted.

https://www.hinckley.utah.edu/hinckley-poll-january2020

[President Johnson]

Lean Booker -> Safe Trump

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

[MT Treasurer]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

I really wouldn’t be too sure about that.

[Skill and Chance]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

I really wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Agreed.  If anything, this poll suggests the 2016 shift was permanent and a good chunk of the McMullin voters aren't looking back.  Even Sanders is polling above Clinton's 2016 numbers.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lean Booker -> Safe Trump

Utah loves the blacks but not the gays.

[538Electoral]

About expected.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm growing more convinced that Bloomy is the most electable candidate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Utah will not be very suspenseful this year.

[TML]

Remember that the two-party vote share in UT between Trump and Clinton in 2016 was Trump 62 - Clinton 38. These numbers suggest that Trump is on track to underperforming his 2016 numbers here.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

I really wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Agreed.  If anything, this poll suggests the 2016 shift was permanent and a good chunk of the McMullin voters aren't looking back.  Even Sanders is polling above Clinton's 2016 numbers.

This poll already shows Trump outperforming his 2016 margin with a large number of undecideds that would undoubtedly lean heavily Republican.

[MT Treasurer]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

I really wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Agreed.  If anything, this poll suggests the 2016 shift was permanent and a good chunk of the McMullin voters aren't looking back.  Even Sanders is polling above Clinton's 2016 numbers.

This poll already shows Trump outperforming his 2016 margin

I mean, not really.

2016: Trump +18
This poll: Trump +18 (vs. Biden), Trump +19 (vs. Sanders)

with a large number of undecideds that would undoubtedly lean heavily Republican.

Proof? Crosstabs? His approval rating is only +9 (53/44), and he’s already at 50, so I’m not sure I buy that the undecideds lean heavily Republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bloomberg clearly the best fit here, but this state will vote for Trump with a much wider lead than 2016.

I really wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Agreed.  If anything, this poll suggests the 2016 shift was permanent and a good chunk of the McMullin voters aren't looking back.  Even Sanders is polling above Clinton's 2016 numbers.

This poll already shows Trump outperforming his 2016 margin

I mean, not really.

2016: Trump +18
This poll: Trump +18 (vs. Biden), Trump +19 (vs. Sanders)

with a large number of undecideds that would undoubtedly lean heavily Republican.

Proof? Crosstabs? His approval rating is only +9 (53/44), and he’s already at 50, so I’m not sure I buy that the undecideds lean heavily Republican.

It's Utah, it's still one of the most Republican states in the nation, despite its hiccup with Trump. McMullin voters were not swing voters, they lean heavily Republican. Democrats in 2018 statewide vote counts got mid to low 30's. Why would Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders do any better in a presidential election? I mean, I'm not going to rule out another large 3rd party campaign but if things don't change there's basically no way they can expand beyond that.

[Skill and Chance]

Remember that the two-party vote share in UT between Trump and Clinton in 2016 was Trump 62 - Clinton 38. These numbers suggest that Trump is on track to underperforming his 2016 numbers here.

This.  This is the point I was making. 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I have to side with ElectionsGuy. Also polls tend to underestimate - esp. this far out - the margin of Republicans in deep red states, just like they underestimate Democrats in deep blue states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are ceding the Gov race, this race will never be competetive, Romney will have to become a Dem to change Utah.

[ElectionsGuy]

I have to side with ElectionsGuy. Also polls tend to underestimate - esp. this far out - the margin of Republicans in deep red states, just like they underestimate Democrats in deep blue states.

Well if you point that out for say - California, or Kentucky, it's just common sense (and I agree), but with Utah since it contradicts a narrative that it's trending Democratic we must believe the exact poll numbers. I think Utah's overall trend is likely to be towards Democrats in the future, but clearly not so in 2020 specifically.