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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  TX-U. of TX @Tyler: Trump +2 (Biden), +3 (Bloomberg), +6 (Sanders), +9 (Warren)
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Author Topic: TX-U. of TX @Tyler: Trump +2 (Biden), +3 (Bloomberg), +6 (Sanders), +9 (Warren)  (Read 646 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: February 02, 2020, 10:19:25 am »

44% Trump, 42% Biden (R+2)
45% Trump, 42% Bloomberg (R+3)
45% Trump, 39% Sanders (R+6)
46% Trump, 37% Warren (R+9)

Trump approval: 45/47 (-2)

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/02/02/donald-trump-ahead-in-texas-though-joe-biden-mike-bloomberg-close-behind-dallas-morning-news-ut-tyler-poll-shows/
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2020, 10:48:34 am »

Too many undecideds, but it should worry Mr. Trump he can't get higher raw numbers. Not more than Lean R.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2020, 10:58:42 am »

Too many undecideds, but it should worry Mr. Trump he can't get higher raw numbers. Not more than Lean R.

Well, you had two other TX polls which had Trump above 50%.
Looking at polling average is generally better than cherry picking a poll you like
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2020, 11:35:15 am »

Too many undecideds, but it should worry Mr. Trump he can't get higher raw numbers. Not more than Lean R.

Well, you had two other TX polls which had Trump above 50%.
Looking at polling average is generally better than cherry picking a poll you like

This one is more in line with previous ones, though. But I'm not saying Mr. Trump is on track of losing TX. As of today, I think he will win it by 4-5 against Biden, 5-6 against Sanders and 7-9 against Warren.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2020, 11:52:51 am »

Too many undecideds, but it should worry Mr. Trump he can't get higher raw numbers. Not more than Lean R.

Well, you had two other TX polls which had Trump above 50%.
Looking at polling average is generally better than cherry picking a poll you like

This one is more in line with previous ones, though. But I'm not saying Mr. Trump is on track of losing TX. As of today, I think he will win it by 4-5 against Biden, 5-6 against Sanders and 7-9 against Warren.

Yeah, I agree with your matchups numbers. Concerning polling numbers I'm a bit doubtful about some of the last year polls which Trump winning Texas by 1 or 2 points or sometimes even losing it, by the way it's clear that Trump has improved a bit his standing since early december in national polls, it would be logical to see this improvement reverberating in statewide polls
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2020, 12:06:18 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-4 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2020, 12:10:08 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-6 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.

There won't be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters but on the other hand it's important to keep in mind that 4% of O'Rourke voters voted for republican candidates for every other office (including for Dan Patrick), these voters could easily go to Trump.
By the way you have to take into account the fact that turnout among white non college whites should be substantially higher with Trump at the top of the ballot than without him, it should help Trump to run up his margins in East Texas
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#Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2020, 01:07:52 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-6 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.

There won't be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters but on the other hand it's important to keep in mind that 4% of O'Rourke voters voted for republican candidates for every other office (including for Dan Patrick), these voters could easily go to Trump.
By the way you have to take into account the fact that turnout among white non college whites should be substantially higher with Trump at the top of the ballot than without him, it should help Trump to run up his margins in East Texas
I do not really think turnout white non-college people were even down in Texas proportionate to other demos. That is what made Beto's near-win so stunning to me. After all, the CNN exit poll had Trump voters beating out Clinton voters by... 9 points.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2020, 01:09:44 pm »

Too many undecideds, but it should worry Mr. Trump he can't get higher raw numbers. Not more than Lean R.

Well, you had two other TX polls which had Trump above 50%.
Looking at polling average is generally better than cherry picking a poll you like

This one is more in line with previous ones, though. But I'm not saying Mr. Trump is on track of losing TX. As of today, I think he will win it by 4-5 against Biden, 5-6 against Sanders and 7-9 against Warren.


Thatís not Lean R then thatís Likely R .
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2020, 01:25:05 pm »

TX is a wave state, if FL flips and OH, FL has a minimum wage bill; consequently,  so will TX. Bye Cornyn
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gracile
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2020, 01:35:22 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-6 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.

There won't be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters but on the other hand it's important to keep in mind that 4% of O'Rourke voters voted for republican candidates for every other office (including for Dan Patrick), these voters could easily go to Trump.
By the way you have to take into account the fact that turnout among white non college whites should be substantially higher with Trump at the top of the ballot than without him, it should help Trump to run up his margins in East Texas

The Democrats have still not reached their ceiling with non-white voters in Texas, especially in the heavily Hispanic parts of the state where Beto ran behind/got fewer raw votes than Clinton. If they can engage these voters more in a presidential year, then that would offset much of the gains made by Republicans among non-college educated whites.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2020, 01:42:35 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-6 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.

There won't be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters but on the other hand it's important to keep in mind that 4% of O'Rourke voters voted for republican candidates for every other office (including for Dan Patrick), these voters could easily go to Trump.
By the way you have to take into account the fact that turnout among white non college whites should be substantially higher with Trump at the top of the ballot than without him, it should help Trump to run up his margins in East Texas

The Democrats have still not reached their ceiling with non-white voters in Texas
, especially in the heavily Hispanic parts of the state where Beto ran behind/got fewer raw votes than Clinton. If they can engage these voters more in a presidential year, then that would offset much of the gains made by Republicans among non-college educated whites.

Not to mention college-educated or affluent whites. Or the >1 million new voters who didnít vote in 2018 or 2016. Or all the voters who have moved to TX since 2018. East TX is close to maxed out for the GOP and doesnít have enough votes left to offset D gains elsewhere.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2020, 01:56:09 pm »

Trump is only winning IA by 2-6 points, this relates to OH, TX and FL, due to fact that since Trump and Ernst won their states by 9 points, they have lost reelection.  That's why Chuck Todd said IA, not ME is the Bellwether Senate race😎😎😎
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2020, 04:35:06 pm »

Those are some pretty good DEM odds actually.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2020, 06:10:36 pm »

There arenít going to be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters here, whether people like it or not. Trump winning TX by 2-6 is obviously far more likely than him winning TX by double digits or some nonsense like that.

There won't be hordes of O'Rourke/Trump voters but on the other hand it's important to keep in mind that 4% of O'Rourke voters voted for republican candidates for every other office (including for Dan Patrick), these voters could easily go to Trump.
By the way you have to take into account the fact that turnout among white non college whites should be substantially higher with Trump at the top of the ballot than without him, it should help Trump to run up his margins in East Texas

The Democrats have still not reached their ceiling with non-white voters in Texas, especially in the heavily Hispanic parts of the state where Beto ran behind/got fewer raw votes than Clinton. If they can engage these voters more in a presidential year, then that would offset much of the gains made by Republicans among non-college educated whites.

Concerning heavily Hispanic parts of Texas you should not assume that they will trend to the left, actually it seems plausible that Trump will improve his numbers in the rio grande valley, national polls have his approval rate among Hispanics at around 35% which is far better than the share of Hispanic he won in 2016, these gains will have to materialise somewhere
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2020, 06:34:20 am »

As stated before, if Trump is leading only in Iowa by 2-6 points, he has lost reelection,  since Trump and Ernst eeked out EC wins by 10 points. Reynolds and DeWine only won by 3 and Dems flipped IL, MI and WI govs, even without winning IA, FL and OH.
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