Will Mike Pence ever be President?

[RGM2609]

Is it likely for Pence to be President in the future, even for a very short period of time?

[ElectionsGuy]

Hopefully not, but given that he's most likely to run after Trump's second term, and that parties rarely hold the presidency for more than two terms, I would bet against it. I think the chances of him even running are a little overrated too, he doesn't seem like the presidential type.

[Non Swing Voter]

lol no.  he's so uncharismatic even Hillary would beat him in a landslide.  that brand of christian fanaticism doesn't play well anymore either.

[brucejoel99]

Only if Trump resigns on January 19th, 2021, in order to have Pence pardon him.

Otherwise, no.

[Sir Mohamed]

Only if Mr. Trump dies in office of natural causes.

Being VP these days actually makes it not that likely to be prez because recent officeholders didn't die in office or resigned. And after 8 years, the other party often wins the WH. After 4 or 8 years, VPs may be irrelevant. Biden could be an exception though.

[Suburbia]

No

Probably not.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Only if Mr. Trump dies in office of natural causes.

Being VP these days actually makes it not that likely to be prez because recent officeholders didn't die in office or resigned. And after 8 years, the other party often wins the WH. After 4 or 8 years, VPs may be irrelevant. Biden could be an exception though.

Pretty good point. It's been 56 years since the last President died in office via assassination (and presidential security is much better since), and the whole 74 years since the last President died of natural causes. Furthermore, there's been 45 years since the last presidential vacancy.

And given parties are generally replaced after eight years (HW Bush being the sole exception post-war), the odds of Pence getting elected after Trump's hypothetical second term are low. The Vice Presidency is much less of a stepping-stone nowadays.

The only plausible scenarios are Pence pulling Mondale (Trump loses in 2020, and his VP is the nominee in 2024), or Pence pulling Biden (skipping 2028).

[Sir Mohamed]

Only if Mr. Trump dies in office of natural causes.

Being VP these days actually makes it not that likely to be prez because recent officeholders didn't die in office or resigned. And after 8 years, the other party often wins the WH. After 4 or 8 years, VPs may be irrelevant. Biden could be an exception though.

Pretty good point. It's been 56 years since the last President died in office via assassination (and presidential security is much better since), and the whole 74 years since the last President died of natural causes. Furthermore, there's been 45 years since the last presidential vacancy.

And given parties are generally replaced after eight years (HW Bush being the sole exception post-war), the odds of Pence getting elected after Trump's hypothetical second term are low. The Vice Presidency is much less of a stepping-stone nowadays.

The only plausible scenarios are Pence pulling Mondale (Trump loses in 2020, and his VP is the nominee in 2024), or Pence pulling Biden (skipping 2028).

I think it's unlikely Pence pulls a Mondale if Trump loses in November. Pence will be done politically in this case. Even if Trumpism maintains dominant within the GOP after 2021, Pence will not automatically be seen as legitimate inheritor of Trump's legacy. There are others in the party with a less bland profile or may emerge as national leader in the years to come. If Trump is reelected, Pence possibly ends up as 2024 GOP nominee, even though I expect his nomination to be a fight (unlike Nixon '60 and Gore '00, who faced little opposition). If nominated, he will most likely lose the GE badly. As a result, he would be done, too. 2028 may be the "most likely" scenario of these 3, but that election is hardly foreseeable as of today. I doubt he'd be factor then, but well, who in 2009 thought Biden would have a shot of being elected a first term prez in 2020?

[Politics Fan]

lol no.  he's so uncharismatic even Hillary would beat him in a landslide.  that brand of christian fanaticism doesn't play well anymore either.

^^
This plus I expect the Democrats to win in 2024 regardless of what happens this year so by the time 2028 rolls around Pence is probably old news.

[OBD]

He has the best chance out of any Pub right now, but that's still like a 5-15% chance. The timing is just bad for him (if Trump's re-elected he's virtually screwed, but if he loses 4 years out of the public spotlight could sink his chances).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

lol no.  he's so uncharismatic even Hillary would beat him in a landslide.  that brand of christian fanaticism doesn't play well anymore either.

His brand of Christian fanaticism was what made him a great running-mate (securing that maybe not that numerous, but crucial bloc for the Republican efforts to succeed), but you're right about this being a huge handicap for a presidential run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Biden will win and be reelected

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Only plausible case is Trump wins this year but steps down due to severe health problems (Pence would also be the De-facto nominee in 24).  If Trump wins and serves 2 full terms, the nominee would probably get shellacked in the election, and since the GOP has several other options with more promising political potential, I wouldn't mind if Mike Pence (who'se 90s era Christian Conservatism has long since been an asset) was the sacrificial lamb.

If Trump loses, there is still a decent chance Pence wins the nomination, but the party would be very foolish to put him up, he's just a rather weak candidate with strong ties to Trump (a liability if Trump loses).

lol no.  he's so uncharismatic even Hillary would beat him in a landslide.  that brand of christian fanaticism doesn't play well anymore either.

His brand of Christian fanaticism was what made him a great running-mate (securing that maybe not that numerous, but crucial bloc for the Republican efforts to succeed), but you're right about this being a huge handicap for a presidential run.

It's funny reading Tim Alberta's American Carnage that not only did Pence save Trump as a VP pick*, but Trump also gave Pence's political career a new chance: he was an unpopular Governor facing a tough re-election.  Even before his gubernatorial campaign Pence had presidential ambitions, his unpopularity made him forget about it until he became the VP nominee.


*According to the book, several hundred thousand voters between WI, MI and PA's highest priority was supreme court justices after Scalia's death.  Pence helped with that, and balanced the ticket of a loud New Yorker with evangelicals in mind.l

[dw93]

Unless Trump dies in office or resigns, no. I think he'll run in 2024 but join these guys pictured below in the sacrificial lamb club if he's nominated:

 

[All Along The Watchtower]

I don't think it's part of His plan.

[Agonized-Statism]

No way to know for sure, but I seriously doubt he's interested.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No. Even if he runs in 2024 or later, he'll lose to Kanye or Don Jr.

[McGarnagle]

Probably not, but he might.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Trump is reelected he can

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Probably not. The only scenario where I see it happening is if Trump wins reelection and a Dem-controlled house and senate impeach and remove in 2023.

[Yellowhammer]

Unless Trump dies in office or has to resign, it's all but impossible.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Considering all the talk from Trump about how the impeachment proceedings are a "coup attempt", I'm not even sure he'll be on the ticket this November. Now that Florida is officially Trump's home state, I could easily see Donald replace Mike with Ivanka, Jared, or Rudy.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If it was 1955, sure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should Trump will reelection,  all bets are off but Gavin Newsom will be a strong position in 2024